I don't really know. He's a got a mature body and the arm is not really lightening quick, so I don't think there is a ton more in there, but we've seen both Means and Zimmerman increase some velocity late so who knows?
I think at higher velocity still change ahead of breaking ball for most pitchers that want to be more than someone who just airs it out a couple innings at a time.
One of the confirmation bias (for me) anecdotes I got in this respect this month was Ian Anderson. One of his starts the announcers gave the regular yarn about how as a prep kid he dominated fastball/curve. The story ran as soon as the Braves got him - it was...here's the change we need you to develop.
Four years and a few months later he deploys 48% FB, 31% CH, 21% CU, and now after four years of pro schooling (non-NCAA flavor) he is where he is.
Maybe Tyler Glasnow can do it 150+ with just Fast and Break, but he's also like the Michael Oher of pitching humans.
That our big Texas kid has some of the glowing changeup reports is exciting stuff, and maybe gives a tool to outplay Tyler Glasnow sometime in the hopefully not too distant future.
Hanifee had a disappointing year for sure last year as he tried to make his stuff work with the way the Orioles want him to pitch under the new regime. Saying that, there is still some upside here and why he was not buried on the list last year. Another poor year in 2021 though and he'll be off the list for sure.
Interesting clue there. I will also note Luke called Hanifee the most disappointing prospect in the system after 2019, so he was on a downward trajectory. http://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/13/orioles-15-prospect-brenan-hanifee-rhp/
I just don't see Hanifee here. Smith was a top 10 prospect for the Mets by some rankings. LH starter with 10 K/9 and not bad walks. Yes, please. I am going with Smith-Bradish.
I really could have built a case for any order between 17-25 so honestly, there are little nuances here that have them in the order I put them in vs anyone is dead wrong for having a different opinion.
As you said earlier, this is where the depth of the system shows. We have guys still with upside in this range and they typically would have been in the 12-18 range in prior lists.