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That's way out there. How has he shown he's having trouble with ADD? You think MLB is going to not grant him the exemption, suspend him for taking Adderall, and then come back and grant him the exemption? Wild stuff, wildcard.

Its been done.

http://www.nj.com/phillies/index.ssf/2014/02/carlos_ruiz_--_with_adderall_exemption_by_mlb_--_hoping_for_bounce_back_season_with_phillies.html

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I don't want to root for a team that won't chance a 1/10 or so lottery ticket.

I wouldn't put it like that but it does make sense to go one more year with Davis in hopes of him rebounding next year. Again, depth is a good thing.

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Good job. It's not exactly confirmed in the article but it sounds like it happened. That's the good news. The bad news is that Ruiz 2014 season (.717 OPS) was very much like his 2013 season (.688) and very much unlike his 2012 season (.935 OPS)

1. Maybe Ruiz took it 2014 but it's monitored at a certain level?

2. Maybe adderral had very little to do with his performance?

3. I don't know

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1. I think the O's keep Davis but offer the maximum decrease in salary = 8.28M

2. Nick wants to come back and the O's want him back. He stays 2/18M

3. I think you are low on what Cruz gets. More like 3/54M. Cruz will not be back.

O's get the pick with a QO.

4. QO for Hardy for sure. I don't think the O's will go four years but the Yankees will. Hardy is gone.

Here is my guess at the lineup:

De Aza LF

Pearce 1B

Markakis RF

Jones CF

Davis 3B

Young DH

Wieters C

Machado SS

Flaherty 2B/UIF

Bench: Lough, Joseph, Lombardozzi, Parades

Schoop starts the year at AAA to work on his hitting. It also gets the O's an extra year before FA. Schoop is promoted in late June. Flaherty is still the UIF. Lombo fills in at 2B when Flaherty is playing SS. Lombo is optioned when Schoop is promoted. Paredes gets a crash course in ST from Bobby Dickerson on playing 3B. Paredes also plays LF vs tough lefties.

Tillman

Chen

Norris

Gonzo

Gausman

Britton

O'Day

Hunter

Brach

Webb

Matusz

Jimenez

McFarland starts the year at AAA in the rotation. He is promoted when Jimenez is traded.

I don't think the O's trade Jimenez for a bad contract. Instead they offer him to other clubs with no takers in the off season but put him in the rotation in May to show he is a productive starter. Wallace has changed his delivery and he pitches well before he is traded in June/July.

Payoll: 106M before the Jimenez trade. 100M after the Jimenez trade.

Even the Phillies aren't dumb enough to give Cruz 3 /54. He isnt going to get close to that.

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Good job. It's not exactly confirmed in the article but it sounds like it happened. That's the good news. The bad news is that Ruiz 2014 season (.717 OPS) was very much like his 2013 season (.688) and very much unlike his 2012 season (.935 OPS)

1. Maybe Ruiz took it 2014 but it's monitored at a certain level?

2. Maybe adderral had very little to do with his performance?

3. I don't know

I am in the #3 category. I think Davis was affect by the shift. He has to learn to go the other way more often IMO.

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Here is how it's gonna go according to me.

JJ is gone, we can wave or boo him while he's playing for Yankees.

O's will offer Cruz a QO and maybe a 3 year deal at $40-$45m. He's proven his worth to the O's in his relationship with young players and the team as a whole. He's a leader.

Markakis will be bought out. Then either take the Team friendly deal ($8-$10m) or be with the Mets.

O's will make an offer to Asdrubal Cabrera and he'll play SS.

Schoop will be our 2nd baseman.. he's proven his got the glove and proven he can swing the bat.

Rest will be the same. Flaherty will probably start at 3rd next year until Manny comes back.

I am getting the feeling that J.J. will turn down the QO but I am not convinced he's gone. I think he and his agent make a big mistake if they turn down the QO. I do not believe the market will that hot IF the O's make the QO.

I think there is a 50/50 chance that Cruz is back.

I think there is a 75% chance that Markakis is back although it's tough to figure out what type of contract is agreed to. I do not believe the Mets would be interested. They have a big park. Markakis would be a single digit homer guy with no speed and his defense would get exposed in a much bigger RF, IMO.

I think the O's will wind up with the SS that is left standing. I don't think that will be Asdrubal Cabrera. It could be Hardy. It could be J.D. Drew, although Drew is not their type of guy because he can't stay on the field. Duquette could go bargain shopping and get a couple of the following (Pedro Florimon, Cliff Pennington, Didi Gregorious) and peace something together.

I think Schoop is the 2B next year but Flaherty will get plenty of time there if the bat doesn't come around

I think Manny will be ready to start right out of the gate next year and be at 3B.

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I am in the #3 category. I think Davis was affect by the shift. He has to learn to go the other way more often IMO.

He doesn't have to learn how to go the other way. He already knows how. He went the other way plenty in 2013. When he hits the ball on the ground, it's always to the right side but he can hit the ball to LF in the air no problem. He just was messed up all season. He's not going to start flicking grounders to 3B and SS. Yes, he hit into the shift but the shift was a very small part of the problem. In 2013, he hit over the shift and through the shift.

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Even the Phillies aren't dumb enough to give Cruz 3 /54. He isnt going to get close to that.

The Red Sox are reportedly interested. If you are the Mariners who would you rather have Morales or Cruz? Rios is done in Texas. Cruz could return. The Mets want outfielders. There will be a bidding war.

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Even the Phillies aren't dumb enough to give Cruz 3 /54. He isnt going to get close to that.

I don't think so either. Obviously Cruz has more value than last year. However, everyone knows that this year was a career year, and even at that his OPS this year (.859) is not that far from his career OPS of .829. With a pick attached last year, no one wanted to give him a multi year contract. The O's will be the only team that doesn't have to give up the pick. They are in the driver's seat. They can offer the QO, offer him a reasonable deal for 3 years and then sit back and see if he wants to gamble again.

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The Red Sox are reportedly interested. If you are the Mariners who would you rather have Morales or Cruz? Rios is done in Texas. Cruz could return. The Mets want outfielders. There will be a bidding war.

Why wasn't there a bidding war for Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales last year?

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He doesn't have to learn how to go the other way. He already knows how. He went the other way plenty in 2013. When he hits the ball on the ground, it's always to the right side but he can hit the ball to LF in the air no problem. He just was messed up all season. He's not going to start flicking grounders to 3B and SS. Yes, he hit into the shift but the shift was a very small part of the problem. In 2013, he hit over the shift and through the shift.

Like I said. I will stay with #3.

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Why wasn't there a bidding war for Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales last year?

Neither player is that good. They didn't hit 40 homer and drive in 100.

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Neither player is that good. They didn't hit 40 homer and drive in 100.

Stephen Drew is an average fielding SS who put up a .770 OPS in 2013. If there is a bidding war for Cruz, he's gone and we get the pick. His next team will pay for 40 homers and get 25-30.

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Let's look at this from another angle. Here is a starting team based on players the Orioles control for next year although I'm leaving Markakis off because there is no way they pick up the 17M option.

LF De Aza (last year before FA. Probably gets 5-6M in arbitration

RF Lough (not arbitrate eligible (550K)

CF Jones (in middle of multi year contract -13M)

DH Pearce (last year before FA - Probably gets 2-4M in arbitration?

1B Davis (last year before FA (probably gets about 11M)

3B Machado - not sure if he arbitration eligible for the 1st time

C Wieters - last year before FA - probably gets 8-9M

2B Schoop - Not arbitration eligible (500K)

SS Flaherty - 1st year of arbitration (no idea. 1M?)

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