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Roberts Must Go

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Skiba,

Roberts is a perfect fit for the Cubs. That is pretty clear, as is the Cubs' interest. Your many posts make it pretty clear to me that you'd like to see Roberts in a Cub uniform yourself.

The Cubs have tried paying next to nothing for him. The Cubs have pretty much given up on Cedeno becoming a starting major leaguer. Why should the Orioles think any differently? Patterson's defense at 2B is very poor and the Cubs plan to try him at CF in the minors to see if they can find a position he can play. I've never quite understood why the Cubs are so down on Murton, but they are. The Scott and Jones acquisitions make Murton less valuable to the Orioles. Gallagher may be a good prospect, assuming he can get his command under control, but he is certainly no sure thing. Marshall is a journeyman. No combination of 3 of those guys makes any sense for Roberts. Why would the Orioles want such a package? There is just no headliner to the deal. As they used to say in the old commercials... "Where's the beef?"

Even with Miller's health questions, a Miller-topped package from Cleveland is far more intriguing than what the Cubs have been rumored to be offering. Hill, Marmol, and Pie are the interesting Cubs. Without one of those names in the package, I'm not seeing McPhail trading Roberts to the Cubs. I can definitely see Seattle as a potential trade partner for Roberts as well. Maybe Lopez and Clement? I personally think that Colorado is a strong possibility to have interest in Roberts at the deadline after their other 2B options don't pan out. I've heard the White Sox are interested in Roberts, too, but I'm not sure that they can put a package together that would work. A lot of possibilities. But, really, keeping Roberts is a decent option for the Orioles. I believe that Roberts will be willing to negotiate a contract extension, wherever he ends up.

Roberts is in the top handful of lead-off men in the big leagues and an above average defensive 2B. He commands a good return. A #4 outfielder, a 4-A infielder and a prospect pitcher just doesn't cut it.

If MacPhail's got a better offer on the table, then he should take it. I don't think anyone would dispute that.

But waiting is most likely to decrease the return at any point in the future.

Rob has already illustrated the wholly uninspiring trade deadline deals that have been executed in recent years.

And it'd take a monster year in 08 for one year of Roberts to be of more value then, than two is now.

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<snip>

Even with Miller's health questions, a Miller-topped package from Cleveland is far more intriguing than what the Cubs have been rumored to be offering. Hill, Marmol, and Pie are the interesting Cubs. Without one of those names in the package, I'm not seeing McPhail trading Roberts to the Cubs.

<snip>

Cubs fans wouldn't have traded Hill straight up for Bedard. Do you really think they'd be willing to trade him for a net upgrade of about 3 wins at 2B?

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Cubs fans wouldn't have traded Hill straight up for Bedard. Do you really think they'd be willing to trade him for a net upgrade of about 3 wins at 2B?

No, I don't think that many Cub fans are willing to trade anyone of real value.

The question is, are the Cubs (not the fans) willing to trade value for value to meet their needs?

Frankly, if the Cubs think Roberts' value will really be lower at the deadline, they should wait until then. What's the rush? They should have no trouble hanging in that division race until then and they can then try to trade for a lead-off hitter for the stretch run and to have a chance to advance in the playoffs.

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No, I don't think that many Cub fans are willing to trade anyone of real value.

The question is, are the Cubs (not the fans) willing to trade value for value to meet their needs?

Frankly, if the Cubs think Roberts' value will really be lower at the deadline, they should wait until then. What's the rush? They should have no trouble hanging in that division race until then and they can then try to trade for a lead-off hitter for the stretch run and to have a chance to advance in the playoffs.

Roberts is a luxury, not a need. The Cubs aren't going to give up pieces they actually need this season for him, and the Cubs need Hill, Pie, and Marmol a whole heckuva lot more than they need Roberts.

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Roberts is a luxury, not a need. The Cubs aren't going to give up pieces they actually need this season for him, and the Cubs need Hill, Pie, and Marmol a whole heckuva lot more than they need Roberts.

I'm not sure that the Cubs agree with you. I think that they may view a true lead-off man as a need. Like I said, though, I think that they can compete and win in that division without one. The playoffs are a different story. Waiting for the deadline may be a good move for the Cubs.

I think we are in agreement that a Cubs-Orioles trade makes no sense right now.

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I'm not sure that the Cubs agree with you. I think that they may view a true lead-off man as a need. Like I said, though, I think that they can compete and win in that division without one. The playoffs are a different story. Waiting for the deadline may be a good move for the Cubs.

I think we are in agreement that a Cubs-Orioles trade makes no sense right now.

FWIW, I do feel uniquely qualified to talk about the Cubs' perceived needs. Leadoff hitter isn't something they feel they need so much as something that they would be very excited to upgrade. The difference isn't that much, but it's enough that they wont do something stupid.

At any rate, Lou absolutely loves Marmol. Much ado has been made around here of the fact that Lou hasn't installed him as his closer. But Lou hasn't done that because he likes having the flexibility of using his best relief pitcher in the most important situations... not arbitrarily forcing him into a role where he only comes in during the 9th.

And Hendry absolutely loves Rich Hill. He declared Hill untouchable a couple seasons ago when Hill was struggling mightily, and since then he's come around to become a force. Hendry is gonna want to watch one his masterstrokes pan out for a while longer. He's likely to be our ace this coming season, anyway.

Pie is harder to get a read on, but they're gonna have a whole bunch of trouble from Soriano if they try to trade Pie for Roberts. Not only will Soriano be miffed that he's getting moved out of the leadoff spot, but Pie is Soriano's best friend on the roster. Sori even went so far as to have Pie move in with him during spring training last year, since they hit it off so well. I imagine Soriano is putting on a lot of internal pressure in this situation.

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Skiba,

Roberts is a perfect fit for the Cubs. That is pretty clear, as is the Cubs' interest. Your many posts make it pretty clear to me that you'd like to see Roberts in a Cub uniform yourself.

The Cubs have tried paying next to nothing for him. The Cubs have pretty much given up on Cedeno becoming a starting major leaguer. Why should the Orioles think any differently? Patterson's defense at 2B is very poor and the Cubs plan to try him at CF in the minors to see if they can find a position he can play. I've never quite understood why the Cubs are so down on Murton, but they are. The Scott and Jones acquisitions make Murton less valuable to the Orioles. Gallagher may be a good prospect, assuming he can get his command under control, but he is certainly no sure thing. Marshall is a journeyman. No combination of 3 of those guys makes any sense for Roberts. Why would the Orioles want such a package? There is just no headliner to the deal. As they used to say in the old commercials... "Where's the beef?"

Even with Miller's health questions, a Miller-topped package from Cleveland is far more intriguing than what the Cubs have been rumored to be offering. Hill, Marmol, and Pie are the interesting Cubs. Without one of those names in the package, I'm not seeing McPhail trading Roberts to the Cubs. I can definitely see Seattle as a potential trade partner for Roberts as well. Maybe Lopez and Clement? I personally think that Colorado is a strong possibility to have interest in Roberts at the deadline after their other 2B options don't pan out. I've heard the White Sox are interested in Roberts, too, but I'm not sure that they can put a package together that would work. A lot of possibilities. But, really, keeping Roberts is a decent option for the Orioles. I believe that Roberts will be willing to negotiate a contract extension, wherever he ends up.

Roberts is in the top handful of lead-off men in the big leagues and an above average defensive 2B. He commands a good return. A #4 outfielder, a 4-A infielder and a prospect pitcher just doesn't cut it.

You're assuming that the Indians are offering Adami Miller. Has this even been reported? Anyways, saying that the Cubs have "tring paying nothing for him" is pretty ridiculous. First of all, we don't know what is really being offered. You can say they haven't offered what makes sense for the Orioles, but don't say the rumored offers are "nothing", when Detroit paid less for a better player (Renteria) who plays at a more valuable position. A package of something like Gallagher/Murton/Marshall is not "nothing", and it's actually an insult. Roberts is a good player. He's not a superstar. If he's so good and deserves a much better package than that, then where are all the offers? Teams should be lining up for him then, right? Not to mention the Mitchell Report stuff. I don't really care about that, and I'm not going to get into the "I only did it once" stuff, but it still plays a role. Whether you want to admit it or not, that decreases some of his value. I'm trying not to be insulting, because I know this is your guys' board, but I truly think he sometimes overrated on here.

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Count me as someone who disputes the premise of this thread - that Roberts MUST go. If the right deal comes along, sure, trade him. But there's no "must" here.

Most obviously, no one is arguing giving BRob away. But he would be a good fit for several teams- he has more value to "them" than he does to us.

If we can get two decent prospects for him- move him.

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You're assuming that the Indians are offering Adami Miller. Has this even been reported? Anyways, saying that the Cubs have "tring paying nothing for him" is pretty ridiculous. First of all, we don't know what is really being offered. You can say they haven't offered what makes sense for the Orioles, but don't say the rumored offers are "nothing", when Detroit paid less for a better player (Renteria) who plays at a more valuable position. A package of something like Gallagher/Murton/Marshall is not "nothing", and it's actually an insult. Roberts is a good player. He's not a superstar. If he's so good and deserves a much better package than that, then where are all the offers? Teams should be lining up for him then, right? Not to mention the Mitchell Report stuff. I don't really care about that, and I'm not going to get into the "I only did it once" stuff, but it still plays a role. Whether you want to admit it or not, that decreases some of his value. I'm trying not to be insulting, because I know this is your guys' board, but I truly think he sometimes overrated on here.

Generally agree, bolded, but they are not what we need. Neither Murton or Marshall do much if anything for us. I'd rather roll the dice on some legit prospects that are 2-3-4 years away.

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I would still pull the trigger on a Gallagher, Cedeno, & fill in the blank (Murton, Marshall, EPat, significant lower prospect) deal.

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Roberts is a luxury, not a need. The Cubs aren't going to give up pieces they actually need this season for him, and the Cubs need Hill, Pie, and Marmol a whole heckuva lot more than they need Roberts.

I agree that Roberts is a luxury, not a need, for the Cubs. I also feel that trading Roberts this offseason would be preferable, but is not urgently necessary, for the Orioles. So the question is whether there is really enough urgency on either side for something to happen. Right now, my guess is no.

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Think about it logically.

Lou has publicly stated numerous times how important it is to not only get lefties into the lineup, but to split them up. So if he bats Roberts leadoff, he can't hit Fukudome second... nor will he put Lee, Ramirez, or Soriano there. And I'd be extremely surprised if our front five is not those guys.

Also, Soriano has stated plenty of times that he isn't comfortable batting anywhere but leadoff. His numbers reflect this. If Lou did try something stupid by moving him out of that spot, once Soriano's numbers drop, Lou will move him back to leadoff.

So yeah, it's more of an educated opinion than complete speculation.

I like splitting lefties in the lineup, too, but you don't have to worry about that with Roberts, because he is a SWITCH HITTER.

There would be no problem with Roberts, Fukudome in the 1 & 2 spots.

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I like splitting lefties in the lineup, too, but you don't have to worry about that with Roberts, because he is a SWITCH HITTER.

There would be no problem with Roberts, Fukudome in the 1 & 2 spots.

Hendry wants Roberts pretty bad or he would have squashed the deal for him a long time ago. Regardless of what the Cubs fans think this much is true. While I agree that it makes little or no sense for the Cubs to give up Hill or Pie in this deal. I think Murton , Gallagher & A/AA prospect for Roberts would be fair. Assuming they can send Payton & Gibbons or DFA Gibbons I think this would be a good move. Cedeno might be pretty good he might not. If he can be obtained for one of the O's veterans or low level prospect maybe we take the chance. Patterson is not a good move IMO. If he ends up not being able to fix his defensive issues you end up with a light hitting DH (Lead off hitter type).

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I would still do a Gallagher, Murton, and Cedeno deal for Roberts. I think the Cubs would as well.

Cedeno gives us a much better option than anyone we have currently at shortstop. Murton gives us outfield/DH/possibly 1B depth and allows us to move Millar. We would then have a hole at 2B, but I'm hopeful that we could find someone to fill that hole in a deal with Millar and maybe a pitching prospect.

The key to me is getting Gallagher. I like his minor league numbers, and I think he could move into the rotation immediately. His presence will give us more pitching depth from which to deal.

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I like splitting lefties in the lineup, too, but you don't have to worry about that with Roberts, because he is a SWITCH HITTER.

There would be no problem with Roberts, Fukudome in the 1 & 2 spots.

Roberts is essentially just a left-handed hitter, because he hits lefties so poorly.

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