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Roy Firestone

Oriole insider says: Don't trade Roberts

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I'm a Cubs fan, and I can honestly say that Cedeno is getting worse both offensively and definsively right now. I have no idea what is up with that guy. Do you know how hard it is to hold down a position on a team for 5-10 years? I see no evidence whatsoever that Cedeno is the caliber player that can do that right now.

Good strategy. You are talking down your prospects in such a way that has gotten us O's fan defending them. LOL

I think Colvin has upside to be a regular CF or even RF. He's only 22 and has been rushed a bit. His numbers would look a whole lot better if he stayed in high A all of last year. An .850 OPS in the FSL (generally regarded as a pitcher's league) is quite good. Most scouts say he has all of the tools. The plate discipline thing is the big thing but it's not impossible to improve. Cedeno's defense is in question. Is he solid enough to stay at SS or does he move to 2B? I don't know. However, his offense at AAA offers thet possibility that he will eventually hit enough to be a ML starting middle infielder. Getting those two guys along with Gallagher & Murton is very good, IMO. There is strength in numbers. Murton is a good bet to be a average ML player. Gallagher is a reasonable bet to be an average ML starter. Taking a chance on either Colvin or Cedeno becoming a regular is a bet I'd be more than willing to take. If any one playe of the four hits his ceiling, the trade is even, IMO. Anything more than that is gravy.

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I haven't read through this thread yet, but aside from Roy's info to kick it off, is it different at all from the "Roberts Must Go" or "Roberts to the Cubs Again?" threads from yesterday?

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Well I guess we'll see how that works out for you.

Of the top of my head, COL and CLE could both offer much better value than CHN without affecting their ML roster or ability to compete over the next two years (which is the period you want Roberts at 2b).

Nelson/Nix/Koshansky (COL)

and

Miller/Hodges/Rodriguez (CLE)

are each superior to Gallagher/Murton/Cedeno, in my opinion, don't present the 40-man issues and better address BAL needs.

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The DH doesn't go in cycles. If Gallagher's ceiling in the NL is a good #3, then I don't see how he could possibly be a 1 or 2 in the AL. I like Gallagher and I think he'll be solid, but he's not that guy. All the stuff you're saying about Cedeno sounds like it's coming from the Cubs front office. I've seen Cedeno play and I don't like his chances of becoming a good player.He's had plenty of chances to play. Don't even start that nonsense. The tools might be there, but that ultimately means very little if he can't put it together. I don't like his defense either.

The DH does not make a pitcher better or worse. Just makes his ERA higher which is easily corrected through a an adjustment factor. But it has nothing to do with whether a minor league pitcher will be more effective in the AL or NL.

A number 3 starter is a very valuable commodity in either league.

I have seen Cedeno play in Chicago and out in Arizona for spring training. He is 24 and possesses all the tools. He played a cup of coffee in 05 and was good enough to be given the job in 06. He got beaten out in 07 and got only mop up duty then after a great half season in Iowa.

Everyone knows he struggled in 06, but that does not make him a bust.

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I haven't read through this thread yet, but aside from Roy's info to kick it off, is it different at all from the "Roberts Must Go" or "Roberts to the Cubs Again?" threads from yesterday?

You know how any thread involving the Cubs and Orioles goes...

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Of the top of my head, COL and CLE could both offer much better value than CHN without affecting their ML roster or ability to compete over the next two years (which is the period you want Roberts at 2b).

Nelson/Nix/Koshansky (COL)

and

Miller/Hodges/Rodriguez (CLE)

are each superior to Gallagher/Murton/Cedeno, in my opinion, don't present the 40-man issues and better address BAL needs.

Before we even debate those packages, you'd have to show at least some evidence that they were ever offered.

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A number 3 starter is a very valuable commodity in either league.

True, but do we really need another pitcher with mid-rotation ceiling as the centerpiece for Roberts? I know "you can never have too much pitching". If it comes at the expense of fixing other needs, however, it's problematic. My worry is that AM is focusing on CHN because it's convenient and he sees "value". BAL should be more concerned about filling needs for the future, in my opinion.

I have seen Cedeno play in Chicago and out in Arizona for spring training. He is 24 and possesses all the tools. He played a cup of coffee in 05 and was good enough to be given the job in 06. He got beaten out in 07 and got only mop up duty then after a great half season in Iowa.

Everyone knows he struggled in 06, but that does not make him a bust.

I don't hate Cedeno -- I think he could be a league average SS. I'd need more at the top of the deal, though, to make it worth trading Roberts.

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Of the top of my head, COL and CLE could both offer much better value than CHN without affecting their ML roster or ability to compete over the next two years (which is the period you want Roberts at 2b).

Nelson/Nix/Koshansky (COL)

and

Miller/Hodges/Rodriguez (CLE)

are each superior to Gallagher/Murton/Cedeno, in my opinion, don't present the 40-man issues and better address BAL needs.

Several of us have been screaming for the Rockies to get involved on Roberts, but it doesn't look like they're gonna be a player for him, so they are out. They've signed Giles to a MLC and are trying to convert Ian Stewart to a 2B. Maybe in a few months if Giles still sucks and Stewart can't handle 2nd, a Roberts/Stewart deal could be struck, but for now, the Rockies aren't an option.

The Indians have been rumored to express interest, but I doubt you'd get Miller for Roberts. I do think they have a lot of interesting pieces that could be available.

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Of the top of my head, COL and CLE could both offer much better value than CHN without affecting their ML roster or ability to compete over the next two years (which is the period you want Roberts at 2b).

Nelson/Nix/Koshansky (COL)

and

Miller/Hodges/Rodriguez (CLE)

are each superior to Gallagher/Murton/Cedeno, in my opinion, don't present the 40-man issues and better address BAL needs.

When did either of those teams offer that? Sounds like wishful thinking.

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I feel the key to the O's moving Roberts to the Cubs is Cedeno. If AM feels his bat will play at the ML level he will make this move. Remember AM came from the Cubs and knows the players pretty well.

AM's history with the Cubs is what concerns me. He has done very well in negotiations with Houston and Seattle, but I'm a little worried that he may see something that isn't really there in some of these Cubs players. I'd like to think he considers all options. Cedeno has proven that he is an excellent AAA player. He has been given two shots at starting in the Majors, and the Cubs are giving no indication that they are thinking of giving him another. He appears to be the classic 4-A player, and utility infielder looks like his future spot in MLB. The other players the Cubs are rumored to be offering just don't really fill any hole for the Orioles, while losing Roberts would be disastrous to an already terrible middle infield situation. Not to mention the questions of who will bat lead-off and what two additional players will we DfA.

Having Roberts in our OD lineup looks like a better option than taking the rumored trade offer from the Cubs. What's wrong with having an All-Star 2B that is an excellent example and clubhouse presence here to provide invaluable leadership for the young guys?

If Peralta and/or Miller are truly available, and Cleveland really is interested in Roberts, I hope AM is at least exploring that option. Additionally, keeping Roberts until the deadline may pay huge dividends, because Colorado looks like they are going to try to start the season with Giles at 2B. There is a very good chance that they will be aggressively seeking a better 2B option come July. The Cubs may also be feeling their acute need for a legitimate lead-off hitter by that time as well, and be willing to offer a package that fits into our needs and plans better than the one currently rumored to be offered.

All in all, accepting a Gallagher-Cedeno-Murton/Marshall trade offer or the like from the Cubs just looks like the worst-case scenario of the options AM has IMO. Unless, of course, he has received offers that we don't know about, which is also quite likely.

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Here's a challenge for O's fans. Prove that Nolan Reimold is a better prospect than Tyler Colvin. I dare you! :)

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Before we even debate those packages, you'd have to show at least some evidence that they were ever offered.

No, you don't. You just need to figure out whether COL and CLE would move those players, and whether or not they have a need for Roberts. In October I said DET would trade Jurrjens and Hernandez for Tejada -- they ended up trading those exact two players for Renteria. You just need to identify redundancies in a system.

I should point out this assumes you don't need to move Roberts this moment (which is in fact the case). There's nothing wrong with keeping in touch with teams and laying foundation for an in season trade.

Nelson -- Blocked by Tulo ahead and Gomez directly behind. Barring injury of Tulo, he has no position in COL now or in the future.

Nix -- Roberts would be taking over for him and is a big offensive improvement. By the 2010 season, COL has Hector Gomez, Daniel Moraya, Eric Young, Jr., Helder Velazquez, Corey Wimberly and Jonathan Herrera all available to vie for that spot. All of those players are top 25 prospects in the Rox system (which rates as a top 10 organization).

Koshansky -- May not be able to get him included, but with Helton in place and Stewart/Atkins both available at 3b, I'd imagine COL could part with him.

Miller -- CLE has a solid pen already and several other arms ready to step in at the ML level. BAL could shoulder the "injury concerns" and buy low.

Rodriguez -- Blocked by Cabrera.

Hodges -- Peralta shifts to third for the time being, and Beau Mills is right behind Hodges. Hodges becomes an unnecessary piece.

I don't understand taking a CHN deal that doesn't fit BALs needs simply because they have some talented players that they don't need. BAL doesn't need them either -- get a better deal later.

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When did either of those teams offer that? Sounds like wishful thinking.

I'm pointing out redundant pieces in their system that would be easy to part with. Even if they aren't the exact packages, something quite similar should be pretty easy to land.

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Several of us have been screaming for the Rockies to get involved on Roberts, but it doesn't look like they're gonna be a player for him, so they are out. They've signed Giles to a MLC and are trying to convert Ian Stewart to a 2B. Maybe in a few months if Giles still sucks and Stewart can't handle 2nd, a Roberts/Stewart deal could be struck, but for now, the Rockies aren't an option.

The Indians have been rumored to express interest, but I doubt you'd get Miller for Roberts. I do think they have a lot of interesting pieces that could be available.

There is no rush to trade Roberts. Why not just wait a couple of months. Are we afraid CHN isn't willing to part with their 4th OF, a struggling SS and a mid-rotation starter in May?

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There is no rush to trade Roberts. Why not just wait a couple of months. Are we afraid CHN isn't willing to part with their 4th OF, a struggling SS and a mid-rotation starter in May?
The fear is that Roberts' value will drop or that the Cubs' guys will break out and we won't be able to get them. Of course there is always the potential for the opposite on both sides.

I don't neccesarily trade Roberts for the best offer out there right now, but if its a good enough offer (and I think Murton, Gallagher, Cedeno/Patterson is) I definitely take it.

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