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Roy Firestone

Oriole insider says: Don't trade Roberts

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He has?

I must've missed the second one.

Folks are writing Cedeno off way too quickly. He's got plenty of potential to be an above-average everyday SS in the bigleagues.

Yes, you must have missed either the entire 2006 season or his being beaten out by Theriot early in 2007. From Roto Times:

April 26, 2007

Ryan Theriot picked up his first start of the year at shortstop Wednesday, going 2-for-5 with two runs and two RBI. Theriot has shortstop experience from the minor leagues; he's already played the outfield, second base and third base for Chicago this season. "I've got to start playing people who are hitting and swinging the bat," manager Lou Piniella told the AP. Theriot's productive day raised his average to .339.

Theriot was not intended to be the starting SS last year, Cedeno lost the job. He's had his chances and failed. The Cubs have made it clear that he is not in their plans. I don't see why the Orioles should think that the Cubs are wrong.

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Good teams trade from redundancies or they waste talent. They don't seek it out. The instances I've mentioned include players at the ML level and solid players 2 years or so away. That makes the middle guy useless to the organization.

Your stance is that we need to take what's on the table now. I don't think that argument is the right way to run a team. "Trading just to make a move" because you think it's an even trade doesn't make sense if it doesn't make you a better team.

Why does BAL have to wait for CLE and COL to come to them. I think you're underestimating the importance of building a relationship and starting a dialogue. There is no reason BAL shouldn't be able to land Nelson/Nix/+1 from COL. It may take a while to talk it over and hash it out -- so what?

Regarding the 40-man, the goal should be to build towards 2010, not improve 40-man roster depth. How does Muton/Gallagher/Patterson make BAL a better team in 2010?

First of all, I think this is the line I'd draw at a package I wouldn't take. If Cedeno's in the deal instead of Patterson, that's the line I draw for taking it. I would like to see Colvin in the deal in addition. There is strength in numbers. Gallagher might not even make it, but you get enough Pattons & Gallaghers and one of them should make it. One of them may even suprise and be better than his stated ceiling. Redundancy? Ever hear you can never have enough pitching? There's a reason some things become cliches. There's no guarantee Cedeno helps us in 2010 but that's the chance you take. Chris Nelson might not ever make the majors. Might not be good enough to stay at SS.

I don't say to take any deal on the table, but I prefer a deal on the table that's good over one that hasn't even been offered. Maybe when you become the GM, you can force Colorado to make the deal you want. So far, I haven't seen them offer anything, and there's no guarantee that they will.

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Murton, Gallagher and Cedeno, and I pull the trigger.

Murton becomes the full time DH, Cedeno either plays 2B or SS, most likely 2B as a SS is easier to find. Gallagher challenges for the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation.

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Unless you have decided the homegrown pitching prospects need to be thrown in the discard pile, Gallagher is unneeded.
Murton and Colvin are redundant. If Murton was a year away, he's just be Reimold redux. For this year he's on the bench behind Scott. We have enough options at DH with Moore and Costanza(sp) added to the old suspects (who are still on the team; If you could trade Miller, Huff or Gibbons straight up for Murton, go ahead, but I doubt if the Cubs are interested.) Colvin lacks power so he'll probably never be more than a 4th outfielder. So trading for those three doesn't get us significant impact over current options. That leaves Cedeno as the keystone since he plays short, and is he worth enough to replace Roberts in our lineup?

Gallagher could well be better than most of our homegrown guys that are ready now. Olson (No Brainer), Liz (Not Ready), Burres (no brainer), etc etc...

Gallagher would likely be our #3 or #4 in gotten in the Roberts deal. The Guys you speak of will need to earn their way on the team rather than being give a pass.

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First of all, I think this is the line I'd draw at a package I wouldn't take. If Cedeno's in the deal instead of Patterson, that's the line I draw for taking it. I would like to see Colvin in the deal in addition. There is strength in numbers. Gallagher might not even make it, but you get enough Pattons & Gallaghers and one of them should make it. One of them may even suprise and be better than his stated ceiling. Redundancy? Ever hear you can never have enough pitching? There's a reason some things become cliches. There's no guarantee Cedeno helps us in 2010 but that's the chance you take. Chris Nelson might not ever make the majors. Might not be good enough to stay at SS.

I don't say to take any deal on the table, but I prefer a deal on the table that's good over one that hasn't even been offered. Maybe when you become the GM, you can force Colorado to make the deal you want. So far, I haven't seen them offer anything, and there's no guarantee that they will.

No need to be an ass about it. I've pointed out why I think it is an easy trade to make. I've also stated openly that it could very well take time to get them talking or to lay the groundwork. If you're frightened this is the best offer that will ever come for Roberts, I offer my relief that you're not at the helm of the organization.

No, I've never heard the saying "you can never have enough pitching". Is that a common saying? As you can tell from my posting, I know very little about the game.

BAL has the following pitchers at AAA/ML:

1. Guthrie

2. Loewen

3. Cabrera

4. Patton

5. Olson

6. Albers

7. Liz

8. Burres

9. Penn

In two years we will add the following to the mix:

1. Spoone

2. Hernandez

3. Arrieta

4. Bascom

5. Erbe

6. Beato

7. Tillman

8. Butler

This means BAL needs about one in three of these pitchers to be solid ML contributors. These are all solid prospects, not organizational depth. Explain to me how moving Gallagher in here is a marked improvement or should even be seen as a positive?

If we want Murton so much, trade Walker for him. The Cubs sure as hell aren't going to use him for anything -- I imagine Walker would land him without a problem.

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No need to be an ass about it. I've pointed out why I think it is an easy trade to make. I've also stated openly that it could very well take time to get them talking or to lay the groundwork. If you're frightened this is the best offer that will ever come for Roberts, I offer my relief that you're not at the helm of the organization.

No, I've never heard the saying "you can never have enough pitching". Is that a common saying? As you can tell from my posting, I know very little about the game.

BAL has the following pitchers at AAA/ML:

1. Guthrie

2. Loewen

3. Cabrera

4. Patton

5. Olson

6. Albers

7. Liz

8. Burres

9. Penn

In two years we will add the following to the mix:

1. Spoone

2. Hernandez

3. Arrieta

4. Bascom

5. Erbe

6. Beato

7. Tillman

8. Butler

This means BAL needs about one in three of these pitchers to be solid ML contributors. These are all solid prospects, not organizational depth. Explain to me how moving Gallagher in here is a marked improvement or should even be seen as a positive?

If we want Murton so much, trade Walker for him. The Cubs sure as hell aren't going to use him for anything -- I imagine Walker would land him without a problem.

Counting on Liz & his near 8.00 ERA is a mistake. Olson didn't fair much better as I recall. Penn has spent so much time on the shelf I'd let him play at AAA as well. IMO Cabrera will neve be better than he is "A Major Disappointment". With that being said Guthrie & Cabrera. Should be the only sure things. Lowen

would be the 3rd "If " its in his contract that he must be otherwise after missing last year he may benefit to a year at AAA. Burres is a spot reliever at best.

Stated Gallagher may be the 3rd or 4th best option going into 2008. Besides having a surplus of SP's will only help rebuilding. It will allows us to deal off some for other guys.

Problem with your thought process is that Orioles young players may actually have to push their way on the roster rather than being promoted out of desperation!

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No need to be an ass about it. I've pointed out why I think it is an easy trade to make. I've also stated openly that it could very well take time to get them talking or to lay the groundwork. If you're frightened this is the best offer that will ever come for Roberts, I offer my relief that you're not at the helm of the organization.

No, I've never heard the saying "you can never have enough pitching". Is that a common saying? As you can tell from my posting, I know very little about the game.

BAL has the following pitchers at AAA/ML:

1. Guthrie

2. Loewen

3. Cabrera

4. Patton

5. Olson

6. Albers

7. Liz

8. Burres

9. Penn

In two years we will add the following to the mix:

1. Spoone

2. Hernandez

3. Arrieta

4. Bascom

5. Erbe

6. Beato

7. Tillman

8. Butler

This means BAL needs about one in three of these pitchers to be solid ML contributors. These are all solid prospects, not organizational depth. Explain to me how moving Gallagher in here is a marked improvement or should even be seen as a positive?

If we want Murton so much, trade Walker for him. The Cubs sure as hell aren't going to use him for anything -- I imagine Walker would land him without a problem.

Agree. Plus they are considering signing Fogg, among others. The "you can never have enough pitching" saying does not mean that it is wise to trade an All-Star 2B that is one of the top lead-off men in the game to get your 19th potential sp. Trade Roberts if you get value players that suit our needs in return, but not just to be making a trade.

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Agree. Plus they are considering signing Fogg, among others. The "you can never have enough pitching" saying does not mean that it is wise to trade an All-Star 2B that is one of the top lead-off men in the game to get your 19th potential sp. Trade Roberts if you get value players that suit our needs in return, but not just to be making a trade.

Fogg sucks! ... Roberts wont matter to us by the time we are good again. If you guys haven't learned anything else by now. You should clearly understand we will lose 100 games this year WITH or without Roberts.

Get the best value we can & move forward.

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Liz was rushed, and shouldn't have been in the Majors last year, he will start at AAA and see how he develops. Worst case, in another year or two they turn him into a lights-out closer, but they don't want to waste starting potential if its there.

Gallagher is the best of the Cubs pitching prospects, but he is far from perfect. Let's not forget, his ceiling is as a 3, but he's also been battling weight issues, and anyone who remembers Ponson, or sees Colon now, can tell you how ugly that can get. Some pitchers when they carry the extra weight, are fine (see Wells, David) others let it alter their arm slot (like Gallagher), so in addition to the normal risks of a pitcher developing, you have to worry about that extra hiccup with him. So saying he slots ahead of all of those other prospects we have right now...I dunno.

Murton is only 25, and young players that are forced to play DH and not be involved in the game the other half inning, tend to have problems with it. Most veterans have the same problem until they've been around long enough. Hafner seems the exception to the rule, but I think he got a lot of DH time in the minors too. Sitting him at DH is a waste. So unless we clear every other OF off of the roster, and he's the 4th OF, or we trade Scott, he is a wasted acquisition. What do you do? Send him to the minors again at 25? Or sit him on the bench, relegated to the occasional PH, PR, or sunday start?

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Counting on Liz & his near 8.00 ERA is a mistake. Olson didn't fair much better as I recall. Penn has spent so much time on the shelf I'd let him play at AAA as well. IMO Cabrera will neve be better than he is "A Major Disappointment". With that being said Guthrie & Cabrera. Should be the only sure things. Lowen

would be the 3rd "If " its in his contract that he must be otherwise after missing last year he may benefit to a year at AAA. Burres is a spot reliever at best.

Stated Gallagher may be the 3rd or 4th best option going into 2008. Besides having a surplus of SP's will only help rebuilding. It will allows us to deal off some for other guys.

Problem with your thought process is that Orioles young players may actually have to push their way on the roster rather than being promoted out of desperation!

I notice that you conveniently forgot to mention Gallagher's 2007 MLB line of 14.2 IP, 5 K, 12 BB, 8.591 ERA, and 2.114 WHIP. Using such stats when discussing prospects rarely tells the whole story, but to quote only the stats that support your assertion, while omitting those that do not, is to admit that you cannot support your argument.

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Fogg sucks! ... Roberts wont matter to us by the time we are good again. If you guys haven't learned anything else by now. You should clearly understand we will lose 100 games this year WITH or without Roberts.

Get the best value we can & move forward.

I agree, but don't agree that we have to take the "best value" currently being offered. If the return isn't a blue-chip prospect, then it has to be at least 4 prospects that may have some admitted risk, but that also have the potential to reach a relatively high ceiling in 2010.

Murton is a good player, but he doesn't fit a current need. Might he be useful in 2009 or 2010? Sure. But if we need a Murton/Scott type player for LF in 2010, then I have no doubt that one will be available via trade or free agency in 2010.

Murton's ceiling is to be a tick above average corner outfielder. Those types of guys are available every year.

Gallagher is a must, and IMO so are Colvin and Veal. If those 3 are offered, along with Cedeno as filler, then I make the deal. If the offer is any less, then I would hold Roberts to see if a better deal is there in July.

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Counting on Liz & his near 8.00 ERA is a mistake. Olson didn't fair much better as I recall. Penn has spent so much time on the shelf I'd let him play at AAA as well. IMO Cabrera will neve be better than he is "A Major Disappointment". With that being said Guthrie & Cabrera. Should be the only sure things. Lowen

would be the 3rd "If " its in his contract that he must be otherwise after missing last year he may benefit to a year at AAA. Burres is a spot reliever at best.

Stated Gallagher may be the 3rd or 4th best option going into 2008. Besides having a surplus of SP's will only help rebuilding. It will allows us to deal off some for other guys.

Problem with your thought process is that Orioles young players may actually have to push their way on the roster rather than being promoted out of desperation!

This bolded part doesn't even make sense. The point I am making is that BAL has enough depth at AAA/ML to get through the season without rushing the anyone from the second list. The point of getting depth guys (mid-rotation ceilings) like Albers and Patton to add to Burres/Olson/Cabrera/Penn is you don't have to rush your high ceiling kids at AA. You are seriously misconstruing what I am saying.

You would rather have Gallagher in the system than Liz? Have you looked at Olson's numbers up until his call-up last season? Patton had a .213 BAA and a 1.17 WHIP in his 12 innings last year (as long as we are using small sample sizes with Liz). I know it's cool and exciting to get "young pitchers with upside" but at some point you have to figure out who is going to play 2b and who is going to play SS. We have depth at SP. If you want to grab another Tillman, or someone with front-end stuff, fine. I don't think it's necessary but I can see the value. That is not Gallagher -- at least not right now.

If your worry is a back-end starter for next year I'd rather sign Fogg to a one-year deal and move Roberts for something that might actually help BAL compete down the line.

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Liz was rushed, and shouldn't have been in the Majors last year, he will start at AAA and see how he develops. Worst case, in another year or two they turn him into a lights-out closer, but they don't want to waste starting potential if its there.

Gallagher is the best of the Cubs pitching prospects, but he is far from perfect. Let's not forget, his ceiling is as a 3, but he's also been battling weight issues, and anyone who remembers Ponson, or sees Colon now, can tell you how ugly that can get. Some pitchers when they carry the extra weight, are fine (see Wells, David) others let it alter their arm slot (like Gallagher), so in addition to the normal risks of a pitcher developing, you have to worry about that extra hiccup with him. So saying he slots ahead of all of those other prospects we have right now...I dunno.

Murton is only 25, and young players that are forced to play DH and not be involved in the game the other half inning, tend to have problems with it. Most veterans have the same problem until they've been around long enough. Hafner seems the exception to the rule, but I think he got a lot of DH time in the minors too. Sitting him at DH is a waste. So unless we clear every other OF off of the roster, and he's the 4th OF, or we trade Scott, he is a wasted acquisition. What do you do? Send him to the minors again at 25? Or sit him on the bench, relegated to the occasional PH, PR, or sunday start?

Some scouting reports say Gallagher could actually be a #2 ...

@number 5 I am in my office on lunch... I watched the horrible attempt at pitching Liz did in 25 innings last season. I didn't look at the cube for Gallaghers stats & haven't seen him pitch. Liz is definately not ready!

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Fogg sucks! ... Roberts wont matter to us by the time we are good again. If you guys haven't learned anything else by now. You should clearly understand we will lose 100 games this year WITH or without Roberts.

Get the best value we can & move forward.

But your moving him just to move him. I'm not sure how so many people have convinced themselves that the rumored Cubs package is the best we could ever hope for in trading Roberts. It doesn't fill needs and the value, ultimately, is even a little questionble. Move forward and find the best value you can over the next four months.

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Fogg sucks! ... Roberts wont matter to us by the time we are good again. If you guys haven't learned anything else by now. You should clearly understand we will lose 100 games this year WITH or without Roberts.

Get the best value we can & move forward.

Johnny, I don't think most of us are totally against trading Roberts. What we are saying is that we should not trade him just for the sake of trading him. If we cannot get good value for him now, then wait. Why the desperation to trade him? You are almost certainly correct that the Orioles will not compete this year, but that is no reason to dump Roberts for low-impact players. We have time, and there will certainly be a team, either at the deadline or next off season, that will have a need for a guy like Roberts. It is the contending teams like the Cubs, Rockies, Indians, and Mariners that have every reason to act now, not the Orioles.

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