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Roy Firestone

Oriole insider says: Don't trade Roberts

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Some scouting reports say Gallagher could actually be a #2 ...

@number 5 I am in my office on lunch... I watched the horrible attempt at pitching Liz did in 25 innings last season. I didn't look at the cube for Gallaghers stats & haven't seen him pitch. Liz is definately not ready!

Liz isn't needed for another year. Take him out of the conversation. For the future, he is a more valuable piece than Gallagher would potentially be. You've seen some say he might be a #2, I've seen many say he's a #3 and I've seen some say he's a #4. The point is he isn't an ace, and we have 15-some odd pitchers in the system that can potentially be "Gallagher" in 2010. Who is playing 2b and who is playing SS?

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But your moving him just to move him. I'm not sure how so many people have convinced themselves that the rumored Cubs package is the best we could ever hope for in trading Roberts. It doesn't fill needs and the value, ultimately, is even a little questionble. Move forward and find the best value you can over the next four months.
I don't think anybody thinks its the best we could ever do for Roberts.

What people do think that it is a good enough trade to make now given the risk/reward factor of keeping Roberts. We could keep Roberts and possibly get more for him later (but certainly not a lot more, unless he has a 2005-like season, which is incredibly unlikely), or keep him and trade him for something similar, or keep him and have him struggle/get hurt and get far less value for him.

I don't think the need to move Roberts is as urgent as the need to move Bedard, but the same risks are there. Its not a "take the best offer" scenario, but it is certainly a "take a good offer", which I absolutely think an offer headed by Gallagher and Murton qualifies as. If we can get more, fantastic, but I'm not very optimistic about that.

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Liz isn't needed for another year. Take him out of the conversation. For the future, he is a more valuable piece than Gallagher would potentially be. You've seen some say he might be a #2, I've seen many say he's a #3 and I've seen some say he's a #4. The point is he isn't an ace, and we have 15-some odd pitchers in the system that can potentially be "Gallagher" in 2010. Who is playing 2b and who is playing SS?
Maybe somebody we trade one of those pitchers that become a #3 can be traded for that 2B/SS. Maybe Cedeno or Patterson hit and can take one of the spots. Maybe we sign a stop-gap FA type for when we're actually ready to compete.

There are dozens of options. Turning down a good offer for Roberts because we don't have an in-house option to fill his spot is silly. By that logic, you must think the Tejada trade was a bad trade because we didn't fill the hole at SS.

Bashing the guys we'd be getting back for Roberts is counterproductive. Just say you don't think they're good enough and move on. But to make complete hyperbole statements like Patterson will be a 4th OF at best and Gallagher is a 4th starter at best and Cedeno is a AAAA guy at best is just a waste of time.

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I don't think anybody thinks its the best we could ever do for Roberts.

What people do think that it is a good enough trade to make now given the risk/reward factor of keeping Roberts. We could keep Roberts and possibly get more for him later (but certainly not a lot more, unless he has a 2005-like season, which is incredibly unlikely), or keep him and trade him for something similar, or keep him and have him struggle/get hurt and get far less value for him.

I don't think the need to move Roberts is as urgent as the need to move Bedard, but the same risks are there. Its not a "take the best offer" scenario, but it is certainly a "take a good offer", which I absolutely think an offer headed by Gallagher and Murton qualifies as. If we can get more, fantastic, but I'm not very optimistic about that.

I agree with your take on the situation, Mackus. Our difference is in our rating of the players, which happens all the time. Gallagher would have to have Loewen upside (from a "stuff" standpoint) for me to get excited about adding him -- you think he has it and I don't. You think Murton is an ideal option in LF, particularly over our current options for the next couple of seasos. I think Reimold is potentially better in the future and Scott is just as good right now. You think there is upside in Cedeno and Patterson, and I think Cedeno is league-average in a perfect world and my brother has better hands than Patterson (to be fair, my brother was a pretty good 2b :))

I am confident the Cubs offer will be here in June, and you are less confident.

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We get the 1st rounder of whatever team signs him, plus a sandwich pick that year if he leaves as a FA.

Gallagher's stats aren't bad in the minors, but he has been rushed a bit too. He only has 40 innings above the AA level. He was shellacked in the ML and in ST, which says he may still need a good half season to full season in AAA still.

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I am confident the Cubs offer will be here in June, and you are less confident.

I'm confident that in June, the Cubs will have bigger holes and more pressing needs that Hendry will no longer be able to ignore. In my opinion the Cubs will either get Roberts before opening day, or not at all.

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Yes, you must have missed either the entire 2006 season or his being beaten out by Theriot early in 2007. From Roto Times:

You're forgetting Cesar Izturis. Ronny in no way started '07 with "the job." He had one real shot--in 2006. They haven't ruled him out of their plans either; they just have a thing for Theriot.

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Maybe somebody we trade one of those pitchers that become a #3 can be traded for that 2B/SS. Maybe Cedeno or Patterson hit and can take one of the spots. Maybe we sign a stop-gap FA type for when we're actually ready to compete.

There are dozens of options. Turning down a good offer for Roberts because we don't have an in-house option to fill his spot is silly. By that logic, you must think the Tejada trade was a bad trade because we didn't fill the hole at SS.

Bashing the guys we'd be getting back for Roberts is counterproductive. Just say you don't think they're good enough and move on. But to make complete hyperbole statements like Patterson will be a 4th OF at best and Gallagher is a 4th starter at best and Cedeno is a AAAA guy at best is just a waste of time.

Hold on there, Tommy Twistmywords. I never said Gallagher would be a #4 at best. I offered my opinion that it's likely he occupies the #4 slot in 2010 as a counter to your opinion that he is going to be a #2. Why is your take alright, yet mine is hyperbole?

I posted a scouts take on Patterson -- he can't play 2b and doesn't have an arm for SS, 3b, rf. His range is okay in CF but his arm is below average for OF. Based on the write-up provided by that professional, I think Patterson would fit into a utility/4th OF role. Would you disagree?

I've stated several times that Cedeno could be league average SS. You are flat out lying by stating I've called Cedeno AAAA at best.

You want to talk? Let's talk. Just try and make sure I actually say the things you quote me on. :rolleyes:

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I'm confident that in June, the Cubs will have bigger holes and more pressing needs that Hendry will no longer be able to ignore. In my opinion the Cubs will either get Roberts before opening day, or not at all.

Maybe. I don't think the Cubs NEED Roberts now, so I figured the same level of need will be there in the summer.

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I notice that you conveniently forgot to mention Gallagher's 2007 MLB line of 14.2 IP, 5 K, 12 BB, 8.591 ERA, and 2.114 WHIP. Using such stats when discussing prospects rarely tells the whole story, but to quote only the stats that support your assertion, while omitting those that do not, is to admit that you cannot support your argument.

QFT, and repped.

I would take Gallagher, Murton, Colvin, Cedeno pretty painlessly. But you have to remember that for a long time we were staring down the barrel of a Gallagher Marshall Cedeno deal and many people here were willing to pull the trigger. Many of the same people who want to do this deal just as quickly.

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Yes, you must have missed either the entire 2006 season or his being beaten out by Theriot early in 2007. From Roto Times:

April 26, 2007

Ryan Theriot picked up his first start of the year at shortstop Wednesday, going 2-for-5 with two runs and two RBI. Theriot has shortstop experience from the minor leagues; he's already played the outfield, second base and third base for Chicago this season. "I've got to start playing people who are hitting and swinging the bat," manager Lou Piniella told the AP. Theriot's productive day raised his average to .339.

Theriot was not intended to be the starting SS last year, Cedeno lost the job. He's had his chances and failed. The Cubs have made it clear that he is not in their plans. I don't see why the Orioles should think that the Cubs are wrong.

Treating this as two separate events of "losing his job" is highly disingenuous and completely inaccurate.

The guy made 144 starts in 2006. Doesn't sound like he lost his job that year to me.

What's accurate is to say he lost his job early in 2007 based mostly on how poorly he played in 2006.

You're characterizing the situation wholly differently, as though he twice was made the everyday regular, and twice played his way back to the bench. That's just flat out wrong.

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Allstar..may not be a 1st round pick. It depends on the team he signs with and where they finished that year. Example: he signs with the D-Backs and they finished 15th out ot the 30 teams. We get a sandwich pick and their "2nd" round pick, not their first.

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Treating this as two separate events of "losing his job" is highly disingenuous and completely inaccurate.

The guy made 144 starts in 2006. Doesn't sound like he lost his job that year to me.

What's accurate is to say he lost his job early in 2007 based mostly on how poorly he played in 2006.

You're characterizing the situation wholly differently, as though he twice was made the everyday regular, and twice played his way back to the bench. That's just flat out wrong.

You say tomAto, I say tomAHto. I think we are arguing semantics here, Dave. Would you feel better if I said that Cedeno was given the opportunity to start at SS in the majors in two different seasons by the Cubs rather than saying he was given two chances to start? OK, consider it done. My points are that he was given his chances and has not succeeded and that, as of now, it does not appear likely that the Cubs are planning on giving him another chance. Whether we call it two chances or one two-season chance doesn't really matter, does it?

None of us know what the future might bring, and Cedeno may yet someday put it all together in the majors, but I can't see making him one of the main pieces in a trade for someone the caliber of Brian Roberts.

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But your moving him just to move him. I'm not sure how so many people have convinced themselves that the rumored Cubs package is the best we could ever hope for in trading Roberts. It doesn't fill needs and the value, ultimately, is even a little questionble. Move forward and find the best value you can over the next four months.

I dont believe Murton, Gallagher , Colvin/Veal , & Cedeno meets your above statement.

Honestly I like to see us trade/Dump (Payton,Huff,Millar) & use Scott & Murton between DH/LF. If Scott has a monster year I turn around & flip him also.

Mora could play 2B & We can find out if Moore can play 3rd.

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