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Would you have matched SEA offer to keep Cruz an Oriole?

Would you have matched 4y/$57M for Cruz?  

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  1. 1. Would you have matched 4y/$57M for Cruz?

    • Yes, that's reasonable
      42
    • No, let the Mariners have him.
      118


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Huh?

We replaced CD's production by getting a monster year from Cruz. Frankly we got lucky, even DD was not counting on that.

If you want to believe that Cruz and his production were expendable and will be easily replaced that is cool, I just think that is looking at through Orange colored lenses. Maybe CD does bounce back, maybe not. Maybe MW picks up some of the slack, maybe not. Point is that if those things happen, we would still have been a lot better with Nelson Cruz on the team also.

When you subtract a guy who put up even 60% of the numbers he did last year then your team is taking a hit. I still hope DD has a rabbit in the hat, he may well have one but as it stands now, till the rabbit comes out this team is worse off for not having Nelson on it.

I think Wieters in his walk year is going to be exponentially better than the Joseph/Hundley 2014 production. And a healthy Machado in 2015 upgrades Flaherty/paredes etc 2014 production. And Chris Davis will be in the most important year of his career..any uptick at all towards 2013 would certainly be much more production than we got in 2014 and would also replace some of Cruz 2014 production. Throw in an unexpected 2015 year like, say, a breakout year for Schoop. All of these have to be essentially noncontributors for us to truly be worse in 2015 without Cruz. And Cruz of 2015 will be likely worse than the Cruz of 2014. And we may still yet add a bat in the offseason. DD has a plan and plans involve a budget process and a valuation process and not wavering when the dollars go up beyond what you believe the player value to be.

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One way or another, we've hit 210+ homers three years in a row. Wieters, Machado, Davis, Schoop and Hardy are all good bets to hit more homers in 2015 than they did in 2014. It's no certainty that we can make up for losing Cruz, but I think the chances are decent enough, depending on what else we do this offseason.

I think there's a decent chance AJ hits somewhere in the low to mid 30s as well. Certainly more likely than his HR total going down IMO.

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Not  now, but at the time, yes. I was never so sure about a decision in my life.  For years I had admired Cruz and considered him a Home Run machine with a real decent BA.  And it proved another point that I have learned in life.  A mistake, even a small one, when trying to correct it,  oft times leads to a snowballing effect of mistakes , which are way more damaging that the first one.  I do not know if anyone else has noticed this real life truism.. .  Had Cruz been kept, Trumbo would not have been necessary.  And the rest is history as they say.  

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2 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

Not  now, but at the time, yes. I was never so sure about a decision in my life.  For years I had admired Cruz and considered him a Home Run machine with a real decent BA.  And it proved another point that I have learned in life.  A mistake, even a small one, when trying to correct it,  oft times leads to a snowballing effect of mistakes , which are way more damaging that the first one.  I do not know if anyone else has noticed this real life truism.. .  Had Cruz been kept, Trumbo would not have been necessary.  And the rest is history as they say.  

I'm looking forward to watching the pick play.

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3 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

Not  now, but at the time, yes. I was never so sure about a decision in my life.  For years I had admired Cruz and considered him a Home Run machine with a real decent BA.  And it proved another point that I have learned in life.  A mistake, even a small one, when trying to correct it,  oft times leads to a snowballing effect of mistakes , which are way more damaging that the first one.  I do not know if anyone else has noticed this real life truism.. .  Had Cruz been kept, Trumbo would not have been necessary.  And the rest is history as they say.  

Although that is true, Trumbo would also have not been necessary if oriole management had had more faith in Mancini.

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On 12/1/2014 at 4:13 PM, atomic said:

Sure why not. I would have signed Cruz to a 3 year 50 million dollar deal so the extra year would be 7 million. Of course he won't do well playing in Seattle. Like I said before it isn't my money.

As Frobby likes to bring up my bad predictions... you will notice I was right in Cruz case and Frobby was wrong.

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On 12/1/2014 at 7:52 PM, scOtt said:

Shoulda made it a public poll.

Yeah. Wish I knew how I voted, if I voted. I didn’t post in this thread.

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1 hour ago, atomic said:

As Frobby likes to bring up my bad predictions... you will notice I was right in Cruz case and Frobby was wrong.

Can’t win ‘em all.    But I’ll keep betting against players being better at 34-37 than they were at 30-33.    I feel I’ll be right more often than wrong.   

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To my dying breath I will consider the Cruz signing a GM litmus test.  If you're happy to sign 34-year-old DHs coming off career years to a multi-year deals you're not the kind of GM I want running my team.  Most Hall of Famers wouldn't have been good signings on those terms.  95%+ of all players are less valuable in their 30s than their 20s.  Nelson Cruz is a GIGANTIC outlier.  Not one in 100 players will have his career trajectory.  The only way a deal like Cruz' is a good bet is if you know that he has access to some kind of fountain of youth and assume that if he's caught the suspension will be without pay.

Mark Trumbo was a similar signing, just on a smaller deal, and worked out more typically for players of this type.  Which is to say very poorly.

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21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

To my dying breath I will consider the Cruz signing a GM litmus test.  If you're happy to sign 34-year-old DHs coming off career years to a multi-year deals you're not the kind of GM I want running my team.  Most Hall of Famers wouldn't have been good signings on those terms.  95%+ of all players are less valuable in their 30s than their 20s.  Nelson Cruz is a GIGANTIC outlier.  Not one in 100 players will have his career trajectory.  The only way a deal like Cruz' is a good bet is if you know that he has access to some kind of fountain of youth and assume that if he's caught the suspension will be without pay.

Mark Trumbo was a similar signing, just on a smaller deal, and worked out more typically for players of this type.  Which is to say very poorly.

Trumbo was even younger than Cruz at the time coming off his age 30 season. I was hoping to get at least one good year out of him, but never understood the signing when Davis and Mancini were on the team. Mancini hadn’t proven himself yet, but I was more than willing to give him a chance on a rookie salary. 

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5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Trumbo was even younger than Cruz at the time coming off his age 30 season. I was hoping to get at least one good year out of him, but never understood the signing when Davis and Mancini were on the team. Mancini hadn’t proven himself yet, but I was more than willing to give him a chance on a rookie salary. 

I figured it was Buck.

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