Jump to content
ChuckS

Lineup w/ Rasmus if everyone's healthy?

Recommended Posts

Rasmus has had an OPS of .684 and .712 the past two seasons versus LHP. I did a search for left handed batters over the past two seasons who had 150 PA's versus LHP in either season and sorted by OPS. I choose 150 PA's because that felt enough PA's where we can conclude that the player was not being platooned and was more or less playing every day. Its not a perfect method as evidenced by the fact that Rasmus didn't meet the mark in either season. However, that was because he missed time in 2013 and was benched in 2014, so he didn't have a full season worth of PA's in either year. In 2013, 28.9% of his PA's came versus LHP. In 2014, he was used a little more selectively perhaps and got 26.4% of his PA's versus LHP. By comparison, Nick Markakis had 28.4% of his 2014 PA's versus LHP and he played everyday, so Rasmus is not too far off that mark.

Anyway, there are 72 seasons between 2013 and 2014 that fit the above criteria. If Rasmus had played 150+ games in either season (instead of 118 and 104, respectively) to accumulate enough PA's versus LHP, his 2013 and 2014 OPS vs. LHP would have placed him 37th and 42nd, respectively, out of 72. That's right around the mid-point, probably a tad below. Again, that's not a perfect way to analyze whether or not Rasmus needs to be platooned, but it least tells us that there are many players who aren't being platooned or fair worse (much worse in some cases) versus LHP than Rasmus. FWIW, Nick's 2013 and 2014 OPS versus LHP was lower than Rasmus and we know he played every day. Jayson Heyward had a .477 OPS over 159 PA's last season against LHP and I doubt the Cardinals will platoon him right away.

Also, De Aza's .816 OPS from 2013 was 13th best during this time period.

I am not necessarily arguing that ideally it wouldn't be nice to have a RHB to platoon with De Aza or Rasmus, only that it is not entirely necessary. Rasmus and/or De Aza should be able to handle LHP well enough next season not to necessitate carrying a potentially worse all-around player than David Lough just to get another right handed bat on the roster. I'd rather keep Lough in case of injuries and if/when other guys under perform. If Pearce and/or Young revert back to being lefty killers and not much else, Lough would allow for both of those guys to sit versus RHP on occasion or all of the time.

Bravo. Thanks for all the work. Sorta old-school OH analysis I appreciate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

De Aza hit .138 with an OPS of .400 in 95 at bats against LHP in 2014. And the few at bats that I saw of him against LHP last year suggest that these numbers were not a fluke--he looked helpless. Regardless of what he hit against LHP in previous years, it seems likely that LHP found a hole in his swing and exploited it last season. Maybe he can adjust back, but the prudent course of action would be to assume that he needs a platoon partner.

Rasmus isn't as helpless as De Aza, but all else equal, it still seems to me that our fourth outfielder should be someone who can play good defense and hit right handed. Justin Ruggiano would have been a good fit and the Mariners didn't have to give up much to get him from the Cubs; maybe someone else like him is out there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Pearce a leadoff hitter? And we complained about the lack of speed Nick had. I have vision of Pearce trying to stretch a single into a double (that most regular leadoff hitters would have made it to second) being thrown out by a mile...
Pearce is faster than Markakis. No contest.

Yeah but... like... look at him.

[emoji16]

(You guys remember the: "Pearce doesn't look like a ball player" dust up of 2014, right?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
De Aza hit .138 with an OPS of .400 in 95 at bats against LHP in 2014. And the few at bats that I saw of him against LHP last year suggest that these numbers were not a fluke--he looked helpless. Regardless of what he hit against LHP in previous years, it seems likely that LHP found a hole in his swing and exploited it last season. Maybe he can adjust back, but the prudent course of action would be to assume that he needs a platoon partner.

Rasmus isn't as helpless as De Aza, but all else equal, it still seems to me that our fourth outfielder should be someone who can play good defense and hit right handed. Justin Ruggiano would have been a good fit and the Mariners didn't have to give up much to get him from the Cubs; maybe someone else like him is out there.

I would disagree with that statement. He certainly did not look helpless to me against LHP's while an Oriole last September. Anyone know where to get his splits vs. LHP's only while he was a Baltimore Oriole last year?

I agree, and have already said, that an extra outfielder who hits RH is probably a better fit than Lough. We do have Young and Pearce. I think De Aza and Rasmus will play everyday unless they prove they shouldn't.

While with the Orioles, De Aza had 12 plate appearances against LHP. He had 4 hits, including 1 double and 1 triple with one walk and 3 strikeouts good for a 1.053 OPS. Small sample size for sure but I have a hard time understanding how anyone who saw those, thinks he looked helpless. I didn't know the stats but they do back up what I remembered seeing of him as an Oriole last year.

Edited by RZNJ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would disagree with that statement. He certainly did not look helpless to me against LHP's while an Oriole last September. Anyone know where to get his splits vs. LHP's only while he was a Baltimore Oriole last year?

I agree, and have already said, that an extra outfielder who hits RH is probably a better fit than Lough. We do have Young and Pearce. I think De Aza and Rasmus will play everyday unless they prove they shouldn't.

While with the Orioles, De Aza had 12 plate appearances against LHP. He had 4 hits, including 1 double and 1 triple with one walk and 3 strikeouts good for a 1.053 OPS. Small sample size for sure but I have a hard time understanding how anyone who saw those, thinks he looked helpless. I didn't know the stats but they do back up what I remembered seeing of him as an Oriole last year.

De Aza was 4 for 11 vs lefties with the O's.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=bal#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2014&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1420232338458&timeframe=&last_x_days=&split=vl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It seems like the comments from the ChiSox fans were that we saw a different De Aza then the one they saw last year.

That's not surprising at all. We did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is great info. Thanks for sharing. Where did you find it? I looked on bbref (mobile) and didn't have success.

On BBRef, you can go to the Batting Splits tab for the 2014 Orioles and find the number of left-handed SPs they faced all year. To break it down by month, I looked at the Orioles' batting orders (under the "Other" tab), which have a pound sign every time they faced a lefty starter. I just counted it up for each month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not quite that few. It varies from month to month. Last year the O's only faced 4 left-handed starters in April, but most months it was more than that. The full breakdown:

April: 4

May: 9

June: 11

July: 5

August: 9

September: 3

Postseason: 2

Thanks. So without Lester and Price maybe a few less. Especially is CC is done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks. So without Lester and Price maybe a few less. Especially is CC is done.

Not necessarily, since the Rays replaced Price with another lefty (Smyly) and the Red Sox have brought in a lefty starter this winter (Miley). I'm guessing the O's will face the same number of lefties overall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Saying Rasmus will be fine against lefties OR righties, is overly optimistic.

The guy has had two or three decent seasons out of seven and he is coming off a poor year. Let's hope he can bounce back, but better not to put him in situations where the numbers say he will fail.

I think Buck plays these things by ear. Splits don't tend to be consistent from one year to another, so you adjust accordingly. I don't foresee Rasmus playing regularly against LH starters at the beginning of the season, since Buck has two good RH hitting outfielders who need at bats. But if he hits them decently at the start of this year and either Pearce or Young isn't hitting as well as last year after a couple of months, things could change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not necessarily, since the Rays replaced Price with another lefty (Smyly) and the Red Sox have brought in a lefty starter this winter (Miley). I'm guessing the O's will face the same number of lefties overall.

Which was 41 games vs. a LH starter in 2014. Toronto had 39, of which Rasmus started 19.

By the way, the Jays and Orioles faced fewer LH starters than any other team in the league. So, I doubt the number will go much lower.

Edited by Frobby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







×
×
  • Create New...