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Orioles sign Steve Johnson with ST invite

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  • Posts

    • Just my two cents, but I didn't think it was an insult either, just respectful playfulness to a well known poster with well known posting traits.  As for thread, the reading has been great and I think I am leaning mostly to Martin as my preferred choice (or Torkelson if he falls to #2).  Just will be great to see anything baseball related, looking forward to the draft, even truncated as it is.  
    • No I don't.  I don't know if he would be a good or a poor pick because the information is unclear.  What I'm saying that the error bars in Gonzales' performance are greater than those accompanying Martin or Torkelson because of the obscuring effects of an environment where teams score 10 runs a game.  If the Orioles' projections for Gonzales are good enough that the uncertainty is less relevant, than great, draft him.  But the uncertainty is still there, it doesn't go away.  Of course the offensive environment has a huge impact on his numbers, I don't see why that's even a point of discussion.  But maybe that fact is less important than the scouting reports and other information. Also, New Mexico State's park isn't small.  It's 345-385-400.  Dimensions aren't everything.  It's altitude, wind and other effects.  Coors has perhaps the largest outfield in MLB.
    • There's strange quirks of the BBWAA voting even today that I don't fully grasp.  Like why Scott Rolen got no support.  And then there's the fact that nobody is ever officially excluded, you're always a Vet's Committee candidate as long as you played 10 years.  So who knows what things will look like in 20 or 30 years. Evan Longoria is just tremendously better than Pie Traynor, and Pie Traynor used to sometimes be called the best third baseman of all time. I guess I should really try to remember that "Hall of Fame Standards" aren't really a thing.  All along the Hall has included guys like Ray Schalk and Bill Mazeroski while keeping Alan Trammell and Bert Blyleven waiting for decades.
    • Great player.  Terrible news.  RIP, Wes.
    • The single biggest difference between hitting for the Colorado Rockies and NMSU is the pitching you are facing.  As with every college and high school player ever entering a draft, Gonzales has not been facing major league players.  The numbers he put up, though, were not solely because he was playing in a small park in New Mexico.  At least, there isn't any evidence to support such a claim.  Hitting home runs is not his sole skill.  The smaller dimensions actually detract from doubles and triples, yet he excels in those areas, as well.  Even hit an inside-the-park grand slam.  He makes contact and hits the ball hard all over the ballpark, and runs well.  College career: 89 walks and 79 strikeouts (plus 18 HBP).  Coupled with his high batting average, the guy gets on base.  That is not a park thing.  The altitude is 1300 feet lower than Denver, by the way.  I'm not the one saying "..that the Orioles should never, ever select a player whose home park was a hitters park" …  and if you aren't saying that, what, exactly, are you saying?  The sole argument you have mounted in all of these posts amounts to exactly that, as far as I can see. I can see that I am somehow being unsuccessful in convincing you that your argument is based solely on geography and it is for certain that you aren't convincing me otherwise.  We will obviously remain in disagreement here.  Hey, I'd be real happy with Tork, Martin, or Lacy, as I said earlier.  I also would have no problem with Elias should he make Gonzales our choice at #2, especially if that can somehow help us have some extra money to sign a guy like Nick Bitsko at  #30.  You clearly think that would be a bad move.  I get that.
    • Evan Longoria seems unlikely to make the Hall, unless his career inexplicably ends as strongly as it began. 3 Gold Gloves, 3 All Star appearances, Rookie of the Year, top 11 in MVP voting 4 times. Will probably fall short of 400 homers and 2500 hits (he is at 297/1703 through his age 33 season), played in a small market. He is unlikely to reach that average rWAR of 68, he is currently at 56, and has accrued 4.2 rWAR over his last 2 season. He accrued 27.2 rWAR over his first four seasons (through age 25) and 28.8 in the eight seasons since.  Longoria is a little similar to Andruw Jones minus the highlight reel defense, both burned brightly and looked like sure Hall of Famers at 25 before settling into solid to great regulars for the next 5 years.  The fact that Scott Rolen only got 10 percent of the vote his first year with 70.1 rWAR, 8 Gold Gloves and 7 All Star appearances makes me think that Longoria doesn't have much of a shot unless a Veterans Committee comes along and sweeps him in with guys like Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, and Kenny Lofton who got minimal Hall of Fame votes but meet the historical Hall of Fame standards.
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