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Number5

Baseball America's Top 100. Bundy #48, Harvey #68.

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So, this is the ultimate "now" trade. To justify it, we need to win the division with Miller playing a significant role down the stretch, and IMO, we need to get somewhere in the playoffs.

Sounds to me like Miller justified the trade, no? I said the day of the trade that we paid a steep price. However, I wasn't strongly against it.

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It is not a "convenient story line," at least so far as I am concerned. So, plainly, I have always liked EdRod even though he struggled with us last year. But if he hadn't finished so strong with Boston, there's no doubt in my mind he would have dropped in the BA rankings. It's not a "convenient story line" for me.

I apologize for how much post was worded because it was not a claim that YOU were producing a convenient story line or that you have changed your position. I think the convenient story is on the Os side - not yours.

IMO, any way this trade is looked at, it's bad for the Os. Either we flat overpaid or we mis-judged the value of our own prospect or there were correctable aspects of EdRod's game that the BoSox corrected and the Os didn't or a combination of those unsavory options. I don't think the Bosox, having their option of packages for Miller, believed for a second that they were getting an above average, outside the top 100 prospect in EdRod when trading Andrew Miller.

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I apologize for how much post was worded because it was not a claim that YOU were producing a convenient story line or that you have changed your position. I think the convenient story is on the Os side - not yours.

IMO, any way this trade is looked at, it's bad for the Os. Either we flat overpaid or we mis-judged the value of our own prospect or there were correctable aspects of EdRod's game that the BoSox corrected and the Os didn't or a combination of those unsavory options. I don't think the Bosox, having their option of packages for Miller, believed for a second that they were getting an above average, outside the top 100 prospect in EdRod when trading Andrew Miller.

I think Dan Duquette has pretty clearly expressed that he has a "go for it" mentality when the team is in contention at the deadline. He wanted Miller, and he wasn't going to get him unless he was willing to give up EdRod. So, either (1) he simply has a different opinion than you and I about how to strike the balance between "now" and "later," or (2) he has a lower opinion of EdRod's potential than you, I or the Red Sox. Or both. On the whole, I think it is more the former than the latter.

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Yes, sometimes teams actually knowingly overpay in a trade. The O's had the chance of making the trade or having Detroit acquire Miller. They overpaid but you can certainly rationalize why they did it.

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If the bats don't go cold against Kansas City while the Royals play the most incredible defense I've seen in years, the Orioles may have won the pennant. I don't think the O's dominate the Tigers the way they did without Miller. And remember if the Orioles didn't get Miller, he would've been coming out of the pen instead of Joba in the ALDS and we may not have won that series.

Even if EdRod becomes a mid-rotation starter for the next 7 years for the Sox, I won't begrudge Duq for pulling the trigger. The O's were hot last year, the city embraced the team and I have memories that I'll always hold close from that season. Don't think this will be a Bagwell for Larry Andersen situation. And if it is, we'll swallow that bitter pill and move on.

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I really don't get it. Baseball America ranked him #15 last season six months after he had the surgery. They knew what the recovery time was like with the surgery, and that he wouldn't be pitching much in 2014, and certainly not at the pre-surgery level in 2014. Any docking of his prospect value should have already occurred at that point, and 2015 will be the first time when he could hope to pitch without restriction. It simply doesn't make sense for his prospect ranking to have markedly changed from 2014 to 2015.

Right, also-if anything-he has shown that he is recovering nicely. His shut-down at the end of 2014 was clearly precautionary, and it seemed like his velocity was increasing over time with his success improving accordingly.

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