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O's deciding what picthers they want for Roberts?

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I think we are looking at different things here.

You are trying to establish Roberts value in prospects from former trades.

I am establishing Roberts value from former trades. Then I think that can be equated to prospects.

I think the Lofton/Embree for Justice/Grissom establishes that Roberts is very similar to Lofton at that time in his career. Lofton value was enough to get a middle of the order run producer in his prime (if prime is 27 to 32). It is not that hard to equal a run producer in his prime to prospects. Certainly a Justice caliber run producer in equal to several prospects with the potential of Gallagher.

Your approach still leaves us having to speculate about what the veteran is worth in prospects.

I want hard evidence, not more speculation.

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Keep Roberts!!

OK, here we are at Step 3 in the sequence... again.

Step 4 is to loop back to Step 1.

Step 1 is "Hi, I'm a Cubs fan, let's talk about a BRob trade, OK?"

Step 2 is saying how BRob isn't worth much and we should trade him to the Cubs for some marginal guys who you're not counting on.

Then, when people insist on arguing with you, then you say what you just did. "Fine, keep him. We don't need him." That's Step 3.

And round and round we go... because you just can't leave it alone... you *do* want BRob, or else you wouldn't be on an O's board thinking about him all the time.

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Im quickly leaning toward the notion of holding onto Roberts until the trading deadline.

Personally, I would look to not only keep Roberts but extend him. That's not a popular viewpoint around here though.

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OK, here we are at Step 3 in the sequence... again.

Step 4 is to loop back to Step 1.

Step 1 is "Hi, I'm a Cubs fan, let's talk about a BRob trade, OK?"

Step 2 is saying how BRob isn't worth much and we should trade him to the Cubs for some marginal guys who you're not counting on.

Then, when people insist on arguing with you, then you say what you just did. That's Step 3.

And round and round we go...

Hey, I wasn't arguing with him. My first response to him was after the post you quoted. :P

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Haha. Just so you know, you're not breaking my heart. That's what I'd prefer.

I have agreed with you everytime you have said this. That just seems to be what they don't get. They will say they get it. Then 2 posts later go right back into the "There is no other teams interested but us" argument. I have just given up on arguing with them. At this point, I just want these talks to die, them to leave this site (except for a few that actually offer substance to talks) and keep Roberts. Most of us will be more than happy keeping him rather than trading him for a lesser package without those amazing "untouchables."

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Personally, I would look to not only keep Roberts but extend him. That's not a popular viewpoint around here though.
In what twisted warped world would Brian Roberts ever consider extending with us right now?

There is a 0% chance he agrees to an extension with the future of the franchise in doubt.

I honestly believe the odds of Brian Roberts being an Oriole in 2010 are higher if we trade him between now and July than if we don't and then try to extend him after 2009.

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#333 02-26-2008, 02:04 PM

Sports Guy

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Hall of Fame Join Date: Sep 2003

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mackus

His value is higher right now than it will be in July or next offseason, I certainly agree with you there.

But, as I've been saying for a while and nobody has disagreed with me, the Cubs aren't offering a package of equal value for Roberts right now (they are offering a package of equal value of Roberts' value to them, compared to sticking with DeRosa).

Taking 100% of Roberts' value in July might be worth more than taking 90% of his value from the Cubs right now. Or it could be worth less. Thats a risk.

I'm very high on Gallagher, so I'd go ahead and make the deal now, but I understand the people who aren't as high on Gallagher not wanting to make the deal unless someone like Colvin is included (who I'm not high on, incidentally).

I think it is likely but not definite.

Roberts will only have trade value at midseason, if a contending team has a serious injury to a top 2B (Cano, Utley, Hudson, Phillips, Palanco, etc.) or if a team is totally lacking a 2B. As we've mentioned before, an offensive 2B is a usually a luxury and not a necessity. Many teams have won with a mediocre

2B (usually good field/no hit). Usually contending teams have enough strengths to stay in contention with a backup 2B. Take a look at midseason deals and see how many involve a 2B and what kind of return you get at midseason.

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Take a look at midseason deals and see how many involve a 2B and what kind of return you get at midseason.
Take a look at offseason deals and see how many involve a 2B and what kind of return you get in the offseason.

2B aren't generally very sought after pieces. There are very few examples of good 2B being traded, so the absence of comparisons isn't neccesarily very indicative either way.

I think its likely Roberts value will be a bit lower in July, but it could be the same or even higher. I don't think we'll struggle to get offers that are in line with a Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno offer (especially considering many aren't as high on Gallagher).

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OK, here we are at Step 3 in the sequence... again.

Step 4 is to loop back to Step 1.

Step 1 is "Hi, I'm a Cubs fan, let's talk about a BRob trade, OK?"

Step 2 is saying how BRob isn't worth much and we should trade him to the Cubs for some marginal guys who you're not counting on.

Then, when people insist on arguing with you, then you say what you just did. "Fine, keep him. We don't need him." That's Step 3.

And round and round we go... because you just can't leave it alone... you *do* want BRob, or else you wouldn't be on an O's board thinking about him all the time.

Sometimes I wonder if MacPhail & Hendry aren't having the same conversation loop too. :D

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Roberts will only have trade value at midseason, if a contending team has a serious injury to a top 2B (Cano, Utley, Hudson, Phillips, Palanco, etc.) or if a team is totally lacking a 2B. As we've mentioned before, an offensive 2B is a usually a luxury and not a necessity. Many teams have won with a mediocre

2B (usually good field/no hit). Usually contending teams have enough strengths to stay in contention with a backup 2B. Take a look at midseason deals and see how many involve a 2B and what kind of return you get at midseason.

It is true that teams in the above circumstances would have interest in Roberts, but they are not the only circumstances in which a team could have interest. You are overlooking the very reason that the Cubs are interested in Roberts, which is he is one of the top lead-off men in the game. Second base has little to do with the Cubs' interest.

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Who is "we?"

Frankly, Dave, I don't see what you are after here. You have framed your question so as to load it in such a way that virtually any trade example someone shows you can be deemed "pointless" and "not what we're after" by you.

The Marlins' fire sale is totally irrelevant to this situation. Roberts' salary is not the issue to the Orioles, and keeping Roberts is not at all a poor option.

The Cubs are offering one prospect, Gallagher (BA #82), not three. Murton and Cedeno are not prospects, they are decent bench players. That Cedeno would most likely start for Baltimore, if traded for Roberts, is due only to the fact that the Orioles have no other option in the middle infield.

Now, if you really must look at a trade that involved prospects, how about Pierzynski for Nathan, Bonser, and Liriano in 2003. I'd say that one worked out fairly well for Minnesota, wouldn't you?

Hey all I'm asking is to be shown a trade or two that establishes some sort of precedent for a guy like Roberts (in terms of position, production, age, contract, etc.) being worth more than what the Cubs are offering, because the evidence I'm seeing suggests the exact opposite.

How exactly is that a loaded question?

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Hey all I'm asking is to be shown a trade or two that establishes some sort of precedent for a guy like Roberts (in terms of position, production, age, contract, etc.) being worth more than what the Cubs are offering, because the evidence I'm seeing suggests the exact opposite.

How exactly is that a loaded question?

Ok. Let's accept the possibility that there is no precedent. What exactly is a precedent? Isn't it something that sets a new standard? Just because there is no precedent doesn't mean it ain't happening. New precedent's get set all of the time.

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Does anyone else find it interesting that these 2 teams are even still talking?

Very much so. I never seen business run like this before. In sports that is.

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Very much so. I never seen business run like this before. In sports that is.

How about the Santana talks? Those seem to be pretty comparable to the Roberts talks...

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How about the Santana talks? Those seem to be pretty comparable to the Roberts talks...

And a deal got done...That is my point....Why would these teams continue this and allow it to drag on if something wasn't going to get done?

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