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Buster Olney says O's win 56 games

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Buster Olney, on the Mike & Mike in the Morning Show, just made predictions on how many wins each team in the AL East will win.

Boston-94

New York - 93

Toronto- (i think he said 80something)

Tampa Bay- 77

Baltimore- 56

About Baltimore- which was the only one where he was WAY OFF the Vegas spread (of over/under 66 wins)- he stated, "They traded Erik Bedard and will probably trade Roberts and you're telling me they're gonna win 66 games, no way!"

That kind of statement from a so-called expert bothers me. For all of his prowess, Bedard won 15 games last year... 15! Yes we lost quite a few games that he pitches well in, only to see the bullpen blow it- but the fact is, if the bulpen plays a bit better- and one of our guys steps up and can get to 15 wins (Loewen, Guthrie, DCab), which is a very real possibility- why CAN'T we get to our win total of last season. Our offense looks as though it will only get better IMO.

The matter of FACT way Olney said it honestly made me want to go to Vegas and put money down- or call him directly and challenge him to put his money where his mouth is. (with that said, he did admit to being a big fan of Tampa and Toronto)...

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I don't think we'll be as low as 56, but I do think we'll struggle to get to the 66 Vegas listed as the over/under.

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I honestly have no respect for Buster Olney as an "insider." He just strikes me as a complete fool, and he never really has anything worthwhile to offer to a conversation. If he's not talking Sox/Yanks, he really seems uninformed.

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Oh yeah...well Buster is wrong! :)

I just have a feeling about this team. Not like we are going to challenge for the division crown or anything, but I think we are going to be a lot closer to .500 than a lot of people think.

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I'm just wondering... aren't there a lot more things that have to go right for the O's to get to 66 wins than things that have to go wrong for them to get to 56 wins?

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The Vegas number is way more reasonable IMHO. I don't see us losing that many more games this year than last. I think people way overestimate Tejada's contribution to this team, and overestimate the impact of starting pitchers as well. Bedard was good, but he wasn't solely responsible for a 13 game swing between seasons even in combination with Tejada.

(We won 69 last year, right?)

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Buster Olney, on the Mike & Mike in the Morning Show, just made predictions on how many wins each team in the AL East will win.

Boston-94

New York - 93

Toronto- (i think he said 80something)

Tampa Bay- 77

Baltimore- 56

About Baltimore- which was the only one where he was WAY OFF the Vegas spread (of over/under 66 wins)- he stated, "They traded Erik Bedard and will probably trade Roberts and you're telling me they're gonna win 66 games, no way!"

That kind of statement from a so-called expert bothers me. For all of his prowess, Bedard won 15 games last year... 15! Yes we lost quite a few games that he pitches well in, only to see the bullpen blow it- but the fact is, if the bulpen plays a bit better- and one of our guys steps up and can get to 15 wins (Loewen, Guthrie, DCab), which is a very real possibility- why CAN'T we get to our win total of last season. Our offense looks as though it will only get better IMO.

The matter of FACT way Olney said it honestly made me want to go to Vegas and put money down- or call him directly and challenge him to put his money where his mouth is. (with that said, he did admit to being a big fan of Tampa and Toronto)...

That's why they play the games between the lines boys and girls.

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The Vegas number is way more reasonable IMHO. I don't see us losing that many more games this year than last. I think people way overestimate Tejada's contribution to this team, and overestimate the impact of starting pitchers as well. Bedard was good, but he wasn't solely responsible for a 13 game swing between seasons even in combination with Tejada.

(We won 69 last year, right?)

My concern is that there seems to be way too much optimism for guys like Loewen and Cabrera to win 12-15 games. What makes anyone think that possibility is anything but a longshot?

Another thing... losing a #1 like Bedard means that everyone in the rotation pops up a rung in the rotation ladder. That means that essentially the O's #2 starter faces opponents' #1, and so on throughout the rotation for the whole season. That means that the O's starters all have to outperform a "better" rotation slot for 162 games.

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My concern is that there seems to be way too much optimism for guys like Loewen and Cabrera to win 12-15 games. What makes anyone think that possibility is anything but a longshot?

Another thing... losing a #1 like Bedard means that everyone in the rotation pops up a rung in the rotation ladder. That means that essentially the O's #2 starter faces opponents' #1, and so on throughout the rotation for the whole season. That means that the O's starters all have to outperform a "better" rotation slot for 162 games.

I think you're right there on Cabrera. I think he's proven that he isn't going to win very many games. Loewen is a different story, I liked what I saw from him before he got hurt, and I don't think 12-15 is unreasonable at all.

The major difference though should be the bullpen. They can't possibly be as bad as they were the last two years.

Can they?:eek:

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I could frankly give a rat's a-- what Buster or anyone else (Vegas) has to say about how many games we will win/lose. At the end of the day/season, it really does not and won't matter much - at all. A possible impact on what draft choice we get? Maybe. More than that? Who cares!

Let's face it, odds are good we will lose a lot of games this year, but so what, its a rebuild and nobody in their right mind should be expecting anything more than "development and further transition" for this season.

Olney and others simply spew cable/internet fodder for message boards like OH to go haywire over. Relax and pay him no attention.

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My concern is that there seems to be way too much optimism for guys like Loewen and Cabrera to win 12-15 games. What makes anyone think that possibility is anything but a longshot?

Another thing... losing a #1 like Bedard means that everyone in the rotation pops up a rung in the rotation ladder. That means that essentially the O's #2 starter faces opponents' #1, and so on throughout the rotation for the whole season. That means that the O's starters all have to outperform a "better" rotation slot for 162 games.

This logic is flawed after the first week. For the first few games everyone is on the same schedule, so #1 vs. #1, #2 vs. #2, etc., but after a rain out or day off, it is soon #4 vs. #3, #4 vs. #5. The rotations get shuffled out of order. Plus, there is too much stock placed in the idea that a team lines up its best 5 in order, when a majority of the teams line them up L-R-L-R-L/R to keep pitchers separated, so right away it might not even be the true #1 vs. true #1.

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