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Orioles compared to other AL East teams

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Pretty maddening. A more expected value Pythagorean record for us in those games should be 36-9. That's just basically bad luck right?

Although interestingly enough if you filter on our 'expected' Pyth record in those games we still only rank 29th /30.

So basically, the Orioles are really bad at scoring at least 3 runs in games where they allow 3 or less runs.

If we had a more normal distribution overall our record would basically be tied with the Yankees for first place.

Well, that's the way it goes sometimes. Sometimes when you see a team that is underperforming its pythag, the bullpen is the culprit, but that's hardly the case here. Likewise, our record in one-run games isn't great (12-14), but it's not awful, either. There just seem to have been a lot of games where our pitchers did well but our offense was asleep that day:

2-0

3-2

2-0

3-2

3-1

1-0

3-2

3-0

3-1

2-1

2-1

2-0

1-0

3-2

3-2

We don't have an unusual number of games where we score two runs or less, but we seem to have them at the wrong time. Hopefully, this turns around in the second half.

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Well, that's the way it goes sometimes. Sometimes when you see a team that is underperforming its pythag, the bullpen is the culprit, but that's hardly the case here. Likewise, our record in one-run games isn't great (12-14), but it's not awful, either. There just seem to have been a lot of games where our pitchers did well but our offense was asleep that day:

...

We don't have an unusual number of games where we score two runs or less, but we seem to have them at the wrong time. Hopefully, this turns around in the second half.

Funny how in 2012 the discussion centered on how beating your Pythag was a skill that Buck or God or Duquette's bullpen or somebody had instilled in the team.But now it's bad luck. It's always been mostly luck. The only way to make sure that one-run records don't negatively impact your team is to be so good you beat teams by a lot more than one run most of the time. That's pretty much impossible.

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Funny how in 2012 the discussion centered on how beating your Pythag was a skill that Buck or God or Duquette's bullpen or somebody had instilled in the team.But now it's bad luck. It's always been mostly luck. The only way to make sure that one-run records don't negatively impact your team is to be so good you beat teams by a lot more than one run most of the time. That's pretty much impossible.

Record in one run games (actual full W-L vs. pythag)

2012: 29-9 (outperformed pythag by 11 games)

2013: 20-31 (actual record equal to pythag)

2014: 32-23 (outperformed pythag by 2 games)

2015: 12-14 (underperformed pythag by 4 games so far)

I've never liked to use the term luck, but it sure ain't a skill.

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Funny how in 2012 the discussion centered on how beating your Pythag was a skill that Buck or God or Duquette's bullpen or somebody had instilled in the team.But now it's bad luck. It's always been mostly luck.

LOL, I remember those arguments.

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I don't think this is necessarily just bad luck or small sample sizes. In the first place, I'd guess that a lot of these are road games. Second, I'd guess that these games are more likely to be taking place in the larger parks, where the O's dependence on the long ball is exposed. Third, I conjecture that the O's struggle more than most teams with pitcher's umpires, because our hitters don't have great plate discipline to begin with and struggle to adjust to the bigger zone, while our pitchers generally lack the pinpoint control to exploit a pitcher's umpire.

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I don't think this is necessarily just bad luck or small sample sizes. In the first place, I'd guess that a lot of these are road games. Second, I'd guess that these games are more likely to be taking place in the larger parks, where the O's dependence on the long ball is exposed. Third, I conjecture that the O's struggle more than most teams with pitcher's umpires, because our hitters don't have great plate discipline to begin with and struggle to adjust to the bigger zone, while our pitchers generally lack the pinpoint control to exploit a pitcher's umpire.

Did our team not have those same characteristics the last three years?

2012: 68-8 when allowing 3 runs or less

2013: 61-15 when allowing 3 runs or less

2014: 68-16 when allowing 3 runs or less

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Updated through 7/26:

Runs Scored / Game

Toronto - 5.28

New York - 4.64

Baltimore - 4.34

Boston - 4.07

Tampa - 3.51

Runs Allowed / Game

Tampa - 3.74

Baltimore - 3.92

New York - 4.29

Toronto - 4.33

Boston - 4.70

Team ERA

Tampa - 3.57

Baltimore - 3.74

New York - 3.93

Toronto - 4.07

Boston - 4.41

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Our pitching has held pretty steady, our offense is still slowly regressing. Hopefully facing the Braves and Tigers this week will help get our hitters back on track.

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Our pitching has held pretty steady, our offense is still slowly regressing. Hopefully facing the Braves and Tigers this week will help get our hitters back on track.

It was encouraging to score 10 runs over the last two games in Tampa. This month has been painful.

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Top 10 guys in terms of AB this month, and corresponding OPS.

Jones (.855)

Davis (.759)

Hardy (.611)

Machado (.862)

Paredes (.480)

Wieters (.464)

Schoop (.779)

Parmelee (.368)

Flaherty (.548)

Joseph (.755)

There are some pretty bad lines in there.......easy to see why Buck has been shuffling more lately I guess.

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Update through August 2nd.

Runs Scored / Game

Toronto - 5.29

New York - 4.92

Baltimore - 4.38

Boston - 4.21

Tampa - 3.61

Runs Allowed / Game

Tampa - 3.78

Baltimore - 3.92

Toronto - 4.29

New York - 4.35

Boston - 4.82

Team ERA

Tampa - 3.58

Baltimore - 3.75

Toronto - 3.99

New York - 4.02

Boston - 4.52

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So we did pretty well against Atlanta, not so well against Detroit, so it appears that overall we stayed fairly flat this past week. Tampa must be really regressing, I wouldn't have though we could pass them with RA/G earlier in the year, but we are getting closer to them.

Good news: Yankees are regressing with pitching / defense.

Bad news: Their offense shot way up this past week (vs. CHW and TEX). Toronto seems likely to improve as well post trade deadline, but we'll see how it shakes out.

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Time for the best kind of update, after a blowout win!

Updates through August 16th.

Runs Scored per Game

Toronto - 5.23

New York - 4.75

Baltimore - 4.5

Boston - 4.5

Tampa - 3.74

Runs Allowed per Game

Tampa - 3.87

Baltimore - 3.91

Toronto - 4.07

New York - 4.21

Boston - 4.94

Team ERA

Tampa - 3.67

Baltimore - 3.73

Toronto - 3.76

New York - 3.87

Boston - 4.63

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Quick Takes:

Toronto and New York's offenses have taken some small steps back, while we've come forward a tad.......so that's good. I think our recent roster juggling is paying off......it should be noted that Oakland has one of the best pitching staffs in the AL.....very impressive by our guys this weekend.

Our pitching has been fairly constant, but Toronto's and New York's has really improved too. We got our work cut out for us, but there's still a chance our guys could go on a run. Just win series.

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Admittedly I may do this less often with how bad things are going, but I like to be thorough.

Updates through August 31.

Runs Scored per Game

Toronto - 5.50

New York - 4.85

Boston - 4.53

Baltimore - 4.33

Tampa - 3.73

Runs Allowed per Game

Tampa - 3.88

Toronto - 4.04

Baltimore - 4.05

New York - 4.26

Boston - 4.81

Team ERA

Tampa - 3.67

Toronto - 3.75

Baltimore - 3.89

New York - 3.95

Boston - 4.48

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