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Moose Milligan

How Nelson Cruz beat aging

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Do you think that simply replacing Parades with Cruz turns this team into a playoff team?

Why would one have to replaced? You actually think Paredes would be DH if we had Cruz.

He can play second. Guess what we have two 2B on DL.

Paredes could play LF or RF.

Why exactly would wr not have Paredes if we still had Cruz?

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A closer approximation of the though process would be: Adding a fourth year increased the risk beyond the level with which we were comfortable.

What you are insinuating is that the worst case scenario was Cruz only being worth 8 million in the fourth year of the deal. When of course the worst case scenario is a career ending injury during spring training of the first year of the deal.

Here's a simple analysis. Cruz was worth 8.7 wins by bb-ref's figuring over the four years prior. That's 2.2 per year. I'd use that as his established level. I guess if you were charitable you could round up to three. Figure a decline of half a win a year, again being charitable since he's in his mid-30s. That makes a 4-year deal worth 2.5, 2, 1.5 and 1 win, for a total of 7 wins. At a full, undiscounted free agent valuation of $7M/win that's $49M over four years. So... the Mariners added $8M (about 15%) on top of what I think is a very Cruz-favored approximation of his value. The O's would have had to beat that, while accepting the very real risk that his decline would be more sudden because of age.

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Why would one have to replaced? You actually think Paredes would be DH if we had Cruz.

He can play second. Guess what we have two 2B on DL.

Paredes could play LF or RF.

Why exactly would wr not have Paredes if we still had Cruz?

Parades never would have made the 25 man roster. With Cruz on the team as the DH who would have been cut off the roster to make room for Parades?

The O's couldn't just stash him at Norfolk.

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AJ could endure a career ending injury to. Why'd they pay him a handsome contract worth, what, six years. Possible injuries is not a valid argument when it could happen to anyone.

When had Cruz even shown he is a possible injury waiting to happen?

Manny is more of a risk and I bet they are willing to pay him big dollars when it's time.

Adam Jones was extended when he was 26 and adds value on the defensive side. Nelson Cruz is a 34+ year old DH coming off of a career year. You're misrepresenting his point anyhow. He never argued that he was a possible injury waiting happen.

Manny is far and away a better player than Nelson Cruz and he's also like 12 years younger.

Edited by ledzepp8

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Parades never would have made the 25 man roster. With Cruz on the team as the DH who would have been cut off the roster to make room for Parades?

The O's couldn't just stash him at Norfolk.

Given what he did in preseason, buck would have found a way.

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And one was with the Os when he was on the wrong side of thirty since some of you think once someone turns thirty that they are on the decline.

Obviously. If you take a randomly select group of ANY decent sized group of MLB players over the age of 28 they will decline over any following time period you choose. There are examples of individual players having their best seasons in their 30s, but they are certainly outliers.

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Here's a simple analysis. Cruz was worth 8.7 wins by bb-ref's figuring over the four years prior. That's 2.2 per year. I'd use that as his established level. I guess if you were charitable you could round up to three. Figure a decline of half a win a year, again being charitable since he's in his mid-30s. That makes a 4-year deal worth 2.5, 2, 1.5 and 1 win, for a total of 7 wins. At a full, undiscounted free agent valuation of $7M/win that's $49M over four years. So... the Mariners added $8M (about 15%) on top of what I think is a very Cruz-favored approximation of his value. The O's would have had to beat that, while accepting the very real risk that his decline would be more sudden because of age.

I agree but I don't think the O's would have had to beat it, I think he would have signed with the O's if they had matched it. Maybe even if they were a couple million short.

I think he would have rather had his big payday in Baltimore instead of Seattle.

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Adam Jones was extended when he was 26 and adds value on the defensive side. Nelson Cruz is a 34+ year old DH coming off of a career year. You misrepresenting his point anyone. He never argued that he was an possible injury waiting happen.

Manny is far and away a better player than Nelson Cruz and he's also like 12 years younger.

That's not the point. The point was anyone could endure a season ending injury and that's not an excuse to not sign someone.

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Manny is more of a risk and I bet they are willing to pay him big dollars when it's time.

If you think a high-performing 22-year-old who's been established in the majors since he was a teenager is more of a risk than a 34-year-old DH I'm not sure you understand what risk is.

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Since this may be a playoff team as presently constructed that could be a realistic conclusion.

It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but even with Cruz hitting like Ruth, he's only been worth half of a win more than Paredes so far this season. So maybe some late inning heroics from Cruz flips the 1 run record for the O's and they're a couple of games over 500 instead of below. Either way I don't think there's an argument that Cruz has the Orioles running away with the division at this point, which is kind of the implication of some on this board.

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