Jump to content
PressBoxOnline

After Early Criticism, Orioles' Offseason Decisions Starting To Pay Off

Recommended Posts

Good article.

In many, many ways the baseball season does not start until June. Every year there are teams that come out of the gate blazing hot who end up finishing 4th or worse in their division. Likewise, teams often start slow and play their best ball when the warm months hit. Anyone who was truly passing judgment on the Orioles' offseason moves before the story played itself out is really foolish. It's now June 24th and if the Orioles had re-signed Cruz and Miller the majority of the fan base would be calling for Duquette's head asking, "Why did he pay all that money for an aging DH and a volatile lefty reliever?"

I'm glad things are working out, and if you don't have at least some faith in Dan Duquette I don't know if you'll ever be satisfied with the Baltimore Orioles franchise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm, I'm still not thrilled with the offseason. I think they were correct on Cruz and Markakis, and did at the time. Markakis because of the speed/power void and length/cost of contract. Cruz because of length/cost and his horrible numbers in June, July and August. At his age, and with a PED history, it's not concrete evidence that something helped him for the first two months and last month of 2014, but it was enough to spook me. The hot start to 2015 and sudden cooling don't make me any less skeptical. The jury is still out on letting Miller go. But bringing back De Aza and Matusz at their salaries was highly questionable at the time and both have proven to be mistakes. DD gets credit for finding guys like Roe and Parmalee, but I'm still disappointed in what he didn't do last offseason. For a team that went to the ALCS and had a ton of talent returning, I hoped we could have made at least one significant addition with the money saved from Cruz and Markakis. Some of our early season struggles included shuffling around pieces to learn which ones fit best. We would have been served well by obtaining a LF or RF who profiled as an everyday player who could fit somewhere in the top half of the lineup. Yeah, you can't just will that to happen and such a player to become available in your budget, but that doesn't shield DD from my critique in not finding such a player. We should have done more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent article by Paul. Of course, he is taking a snapshot here, just as the critics were taking a snapshot in April or May. It will take 162 games (or close) before we have the whole picture of how these decisions impacted the 2015 season, to say nothing of the seasons beyond this one. But yeah, these decisions look a lot better today than they looked a month ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really liked what the Giants got in Aoki, but Snider is hitting for a decent OBP, better defender, and cheaper. I can't think of anyone else besides Cruz that people were calling for.

It pains me to say so, but Matusz still has value as a LOOGY and long man. At his salary he needs to put up only about 1/2 a WAR to be worth it. If there weren't any significant trade offers, I can see why DD kept him.

De Aza was a bit of a mystery. He showed some upside at the end of last year and seemed to have some positive chemistry. I guess it was not inconceivable that he has a 1 WAR season. Anyway, he is gone, just a bit of money lost. If that is DD's worst mistake, I am OK with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So if they play out their contract and go somewhere else, it is because the Orioles "refused" to resign them? I don't think it works that way. I suspect they value all 3 of them highly and will make competitive offers, especially to Wieters, but it will be up to the players not the Orioles where they sign.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Also, can we revisit this when we refuse to resign Wieters, O'day and Chen?

Well, to be fair, that is an article and a discussion for next year. There are a lot of things that can happen between now and then.

Also, as HelenaEngineer says, I don't think "refuse" is the right word. We did not refuse to resign Miller, Cruz and Markakis. We tried, but they just got better deals elsewhere. Better for them, nit necessarily for the teams they ended up with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah seems a lot of posters have mysteriously vanished over the last two weeks. Wonder what happened to them all.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

Funny how that happens

All it will take is one loss, and that will be back after the game drinking the kool-aid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2021 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2021 Orioles Stats

2021 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Here are some key monthly splits. Offense  March/April (12-14 record): 3.62 R/G (14th), .224/.282/.366 (14th in OPS), 0.96 HR/G (13th), .211/.291/.303 with RISP. May (5-23): 3.86 R/G (13th), .234/.307/.397 (8th), 1.07 HR/G (10th), .219/.311/.317 with RISP June (10-17): 4.85 R/G (8th), .255/.317/.420 (9th), 1.37 HR/G (9th), .288/.337/.446 with RISP July (10-12): 4.41 R/G (9th), .232/.303/.400 (10th), 1.23 HR/G (10th), .231/.309/.329 with RISP August (4-24): 3.86 R/G (14th), .250/.302/.432 (9th), 1.39 HR/G (6th), .214/.291/.303 with RISP Sept./Oct. (11-20): 3.90 R/G (14th), .237/.308/.391 (12th), 1.19 HR/G (7th), .225/.314/.398 with RISP Pitching  March/April (12-14): 4.01 ERA (8th), 5.00 starters (14th), 4.85 IP/S (11th), 2.81 relievers (5th), 7 of 12 saves May (5-23): 5.89 ERA (15th), 5.69 starters (15th), 4.63 IP/S (15th), 6.13 relievers (15th), 2 of 8 saves June (10-17): 6.38 ERA (15th), 7.42 starters (15th), 4.22 IP/S (15th), 5.40 relievers (14th), 6 of 8 saves July (10-12): 5.35 ERA (15th), 5.67 starters (12th), 4.62 IP/S (15th), 5.01 relievers (11th), 3 of 5 saves August (4-24): 7.43 ERA (15th), 7.20 starters (15th), 4.60 IP/S (13th), 7.69 relievers (15th), 1 of 4 saves Sept./Oct. (11-20): 5.84 ERA (15th), 5.05 starters (12th), 4.37 IP/S (12th), 6.63 relievers (15th), 7 of 17 saves   I’ve bolded a few things that really stood out to me.   On offense, we had four of six moths where we were absolutely terrible with RISP.    For context, the league average slash line with RISP was .255/.333/.422.   In particular, look at the slugging percentages with RISP in the four feeble months: .303, .317, .329, and .303.   Just goes to show how empty most of our homers were. As to pitching, the starters and bullpen were both very respectable in March/April and gave us false hopes for a fun summer.    They were both terrible thereafter, and I think an under-discussed aspect was how bad the bullpen was, not just in ERA but bottom line results in failing to preserve leads, especially over the last two months of the year.   If you want to see a significant improvement in the team’s record next year, a halfway respectable performance by the bullpen would go a surprisingly long way.  
    • A better order Better bring in a haul - Mullins, Hays, Means Some To little value; could gain much more value w/ good start to 2022 - Santander, Mancini, Sulser, Scott, Tate, Lyles Currently no value, but bc of age, service time, and/or potential to reach peak value, IF they were to perform WOULD have trade value - Fry, Lopez, Odor, Stewart    
    • I was shocked at first but did some research on the current market, and  1 year 7 million is spot on for Lyles to the O's
    • They have no current value, but this thread discusses potential to build value as well.
    • There was no real order
    • I do not want Green.  Just way too many strike outs, too many holes in the swing for me to be comfortable with.   
    • September/October2021 -- finally getting around to this. 11-20 record 6-14 vs. AL East 8-10 at home 3-10 on the road 5-7 in one-run games 1-4 in extra innings Batting 3.90 runs/game was 14th in the AL .237 BA was 12th .308 OBP was 10th .391 SLG was 12th .699 OPS was 12th 1.19 HR/G was 7th .225/.314/.398 with RISP (274 PA, 236 AB, 53 H, 94 TB, 86 TOB) Pitching 5.84 ERA was last in the AL 5.97 RA/G was last 1.77 HR/G was last 5.05 starter ERA was 12th 4.37 IP/start was 12th 6.63 bullpen ERA was last 7 saves was tied for 8th 17 save opportunities  10 blown saves  Defense 10 unearned runs was tied for 10th fewest in the AL 0.42 errors/game (13 errors) -0.7 fangraphs defense 1.3 UZR (+ 3.3 OF, +2.0 IF) -1 Rtot -3 Rdrs 0 OAA Cumulative through September/October 2021 Batting 4.07 runs/game was 14th in the AL .239 BA was 10th .304 OBP was 12th .402 SLG was 11th .705 OPS was 12th 1.20 HR/G was 10th .232/.311/.353 with RISP (1437 PA,  1241 AB, 288 H, 438 TB, 445 TOB)(.664 OPS with RISP was last in the AL) Pitching 5.84 ERA was last in the AL 5.90 RA/G was last 1.59 HR/G was last 5.99 starter ERA was last 4.54 IP/start was last 5.70 bullpen ERA was last  26 saves was last 54 save opportunities was 13th 28 blown saves was tied for 2nd most Defense 46 unearned runs was fewest in the AL  0.46 errors/game (74 errors) was 3rd fewest 0.1 fangraphs defense was 8th in AL -3.9 UZR was 10th  (-4.4 OF, +0.5 IF) -46 Rtot was 14th - 30 Rdrs was 12th -16 OAA Conclusion:  The offense was pretty much its usual well below average self in September/October, and while the hitting with RISP was a little better than it was on the season as a whole (.712 OPS vs. .664), somehow the team still was 14th in runs per game despite doing better than that in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS (all in the 10th-12th range).   Not epically bad, just regular bad.   The starting pitching also was only regular bad, and better than its usual epically awful, posting a 5.05 ERA in September/October compared to 5.99 on the season.   But the bullpen really carried the team to the no. 1 draft pick, posting a 6.63 ERA for the month and blowing 10 of 17 save opportunities.   Think about that -- 17 save opportunities in one month is a lot!   But the pen blew more than half of them.   The pen was epically bad this season, and even more horrible in September/October.   Finally, the defense was sort of middling in the final month, both by standard and advanced metrics.   It's interesting that on the year, the O's allowed the fewest unearned runs of any team in the league, and the 3rd fewest errors, and yet, Rdrs had them at -46 runs, Rtot said -30, and OAA said -16.    All in all, there's a ton of work to do in all areas for 2022.   The pitching in particular just has to get better.   And I think it will, because it pretty much cannot get worse, either for the starters (5.99 ERA for the year while covering only 4.54 IP per start) or the bullpen (5.70 ERA and a 48% save rate).    But how much better is the key to how significantly our team will improve in 2021.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...