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Now is the time: Extend Chris Tillman.

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I realize that there will be some people for whom the ensuing reaction is, "whaaaa?!"

Despite its notoriety as pretty much the only official, guiding principle of a market, the Orioles are notoriously bad at selling high and buying low. We should change that right about now. Tillman should be signed to a long extension.

If you were to graph Tillman's career stats on a candlestick graph and analyze it objectively, most investors type would tell you that he is in a classic "bear trap." (This means that the majority sell out of fear, while smart money buys back on the dip, sensing the superficialness of the current short-term downtrend.)

He's 27. He has struggled significantly will command this season, but in a statistically anomalous fashion. Before the start of this season, I would have said that we didn't have a great chance of keeping him longterm, due to the O's cautious nature with pitching. But now we have an opportunity to be the smart money, and take a shot on an excellent talent and well-liked teammate...a potential core Oriole.

Buy.

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I realize that there will be some people for whom the ensuing reaction is, "whaaaa?!"

Despite its notoriety as pretty much the only official, guiding principle of a market, the Orioles are notoriously bad at selling high and buying low. We should change that right about now. Tillman should be signed to a long extension.

If you were to graph Tillman's career stats on a candlestick graph and analyze it objectively, most investors type would tell you that he is in a classic "bear trap." (This means that the majority sell out of fear, while smart money buys back on the dip, sensing the superficialness of the current short-term downtrend.)

He's 27. He has struggled significantly will command this season, but in a statistically anomalous fashion. Before the start of this season, I would have said that we didn't have a great chance of keeping him longterm, due to the O's cautious nature with pitching. But now we have an opportunity to be the smart money, and take a shot on an excellent talent and well-liked teammate...a potential core Oriole.

Buy.

Is he really "an excellent talent?" I'd argue that he isn't. He's a guy with a 6K/9 and 3BB/9. He's out performed his FIP 3 years straight and this year he's on the other side. I personally, do not believe he's an excellent talent. He's a serviceable ML 4th-5th starter most of the time, and this year he doesn't even belong in the Majors.

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To what extent is it anomalous lack of command and to what extent is it him his drastically outperforming his peripherals/FIP catching up to him, though?

Yeah, Malike beat me to it.

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Is he really "an excellent talent?" I'd argue that he isn't. He's a guy with a 6K/9 and 3BB/9. He's out performed his FIP 3 years straight and this year he's on the other side. I personally, do not believe he's an excellent talent. He's a serviceable ML 4th-5th starter most of the time, and this year he doesn't even belong in the Majors.

Yeah, and his stuff doesn't really pass the eye test. 91 mph FB, struggles to command the curve, change is OK but doesn't throw it much. Gives you consistent innings but seems pretty replaceable. Dollars would have to be right for me to consider extending.

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Is he really "an excellent talent?" I'd argue that he isn't. He's a guy with a 6K/9 and 3BB/9. He's out performed his FIP 3 years straight and this year he's on the other side. I personally, do not believe he's an excellent talent. He's a serviceable ML 4th-5th starter most of the time, and this year he doesn't even belong in the Majors.

He was "an excellent talent" when we traded for him. Or maybe the pundits were doing their usual overrated analysis of a top 25 prospect.

Yeah sure, you can strike with the iron is... cold... but it takes two sides to close a deal. I can't imagine Tillman, who has a taste of success, would want to extend for "mediocre starting pitcher" rates. If he does, it would raise a big big red flag.

I would take the money that was going to go to Tillman, and extend Machado before it becomes nearly impossible to afford it.

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Disagree. The problem with Tillman is you were going to end up paying for a number 2, when he isn't a number 2, and never has been. You don't buy a pitcher whose secondaries continue to get worse every year. It's why I opposed extending him before the season. Even if we extended Tillman now, we'd still be buying high on him. There is just no evidence he will ever get back his CB command. And I dont' want to lock up a 2 pitch pitcher, with a low SO rate, long term.

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1) To go with your analogy, If Tillman were a publicly traded company, you'd be able to look at his balance sheet and see that this company is in very rough shape. Furthermore, if you look at his 3-year financial statements, the warning signs have been there for years. You have lost your opportunity to sell high, but that does not mean that you should now double down by purchasing more of a sick company. That doesn't mean you should sell, in fact you definitely should not sell, but the most prudent course of action would be to hold and hope for a modest recovery.

2) Unlike stocks, you cannot buy a player whenever you want. Tillman has no incentive whatsoever to sign a deal right now during what might be his lowest point as a professional pitcher.

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Camden Depot has a three part series that really breaks it down. I don't necessarily agree with what they say about his cutter, but the piece is comprehensive. I think he needs to be throwing it more.

As to the premise of the OP it's not a bad idea to get him extended at bargain rates even if you don't think he's an excellent talent. The rotation always needs mid rotation types and ours has been built that way.

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I am watching Tillman pitch and have to wonder what has happened to that devastating curve ball he used to throw with great success? It reminded me of the one Palmer used to throw and one of the best I have seen! Has he somehow lost that pitch? If so no wonder he has struggled! I have watched him throw nearly 40 pitches all fast balls other than a few poorly thrown sliders! What gives?? Anyone know?

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Is he really "an excellent talent?" I'd argue that he isn't. He's a guy with a 6K/9 and 3BB/9. He's out performed his FIP 3 years straight and this year he's on the other side. I personally, do not believe he's an excellent talent. He's a serviceable ML 4th-5th starter most of the time, and this year he doesn't even belong in the Majors.

You REALLY don't like Tillman.

You keep citing his FIP, but his more pressing issue this year is the walk rate which is WAY up this year compared to his renaissance years since 2012. This is due to poor command this year, not regression. His mechanics are out of whack, and he can't command anything but his FB consistently (and even not that a times). He's not an ace, but if buy low right now, and you sign him for a reasonable deal, I think a Ubaldo-like correction to his mechanics will pay off very well in the future.

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You REALLY don't like Tillman.

You keep citing his FIP, but his more pressing issue this year is the walk rate which is WAY up this year compared to his renaissance years since 2012. This is due to poor command this year, not regression. His mechanics are out of whack, and he can't command anything but his FB consistently (and even not that a times). He's not an ace, but if buy low right now, and you sign him for a reasonable deal, I think a Ubaldo-like correction to his mechanics will pay off very well in the future.

I don't dislike Tillman. He's just not a very good pitcher. Even when he was our Ace, he wasn't a very good pitcher. He's been lucky, he doesn't strike guys out, and last year he had the lowest HR rate of his career and this year its normalizing. He's had one good season in 2013. You control him until 2018 when he's pushing 30, and I'm not sure why you, or anyone would want to pay him Ubaldo money, because he's not going to sign for 8M a year.

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Despite its notoriety as pretty much the only official, guiding principle of a market, the Orioles are notoriously bad at selling high and buying low.

Actually, a large reason that we are currently clawing our way up to first place in the AL East is that the Orioles are very good at buying low.

Selling high? Yeah, not so much. But we definitely buy low with regularity, in ways that make a difference for the team.

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I am watching Tillman pitch and have to wonder what has happened to that devastating curve ball he used to throw with great success? It reminded me of the one Palmer used to throw and one of the best I have seen! Has he somehow lost that pitch? If so no wonder he has struggled! I have watched him throw nearly 40 pitches all fast balls other than a few poorly thrown sliders! What gives?? Anyone know?

You weren't the only one impressed with his curve - it was regarded as his best pitch and one of the better ones in baseball at the time. If someone has an answer I'd also like to know.

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