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avdeuph

Now is the time: Extend Chris Tillman.

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Actually, a large reason that we are currently clawing our way up to first place in the AL East is that the Orioles are very good at buying low.

Selling high? Yeah, not so much. But we definitely buy low with regularity, in ways that make a difference for the team.

You know what, you're right about that. In the last 3 years we've had some great low buys. However, I was specifically referring to extensions/contracts for existing Orioles, with Jones being a potential exception (depending on how you look at it).

In addition, I think we've specifically sold low more than anything else, in terms of prospective mistakes.

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I don't dislike Tillman. He's just not a very good pitcher. Even when he was our Ace, he wasn't a very good pitcher. He's been lucky, he doesn't strike guys out, and last year he had the lowest HR rate of his career and this year its normalizing. He's had one good season in 2013. You control him until 2018 when he's pushing 30, and I'm not sure why you, or anyone would want to pay him Ubaldo money, because he's not going to sign for 8M a year.

I agree in regards to that price. He's not worth that. But I think he is better than the serviceable 4/5 that you've been saying he is when his mechanics aren't out of whack. If he can be extended for a reasonable deal, I think the Orioles should give it strong consideration. Who else do you think we should get who would be a bargain for the money to give his production (sans 2015)?

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You weren't the only one impressed with his curve - it was regarded as his best pitch and one of the better ones in baseball at the time. If someone has an answer I'd also like to know.

My recollection was he had 12-6 hammer curveball which looked awesome against minor leaguers, but it was too loopy and hard to control, and ML hitters weren't swinging at it. Like his windup, they tightened it up and gave him something he could get strikes with and was reasonably effective with decent depth. Even that seems to be missing. The lack of use and effectiveness of his changeup seems more curious to me. Could be a lot of things going on there and I don't think he's this bad. but that he had marginal stuff and questionable peripheral stat to begins with shouldn't be discounted.

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I agree in regards to that price. He's not worth that. But I think he is better than the serviceable 4/5 that you've been saying he is when his mechanics aren't out of whack. If he can be extended for a reasonable deal, I think the Orioles should give it strong consideration. Who else do you think we should get who would be a bargain for the money to give his production (sans 2015)?

Seeing as how Tillman isn't a free agent until 2018, I'm not worried about giving his money to another pitcher.

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I would like to see the O's trade Tillman in the offseason and get a more dependable starter. His stuff is so close to being barely good enough to get hitters out that everything needs to be working for him to be effective.

He's going to get 6 or 7 million next season regardless of whether he pitches that well this season. I'm hoping he bounces back the rest of the year and the O's can get a couple of good prospects for him. The O's probably already got the best years of his career.

Starting pitching market is very deep, so the O's should be able to pick up a mid-level SP for a decent deal. I dream of signing Cueto or Zimmerman, but then I remember I cheer for the O's.

I see Doug Fister, Mat Latos, or Mike Leake as possibles. I could see the O's making a run at Chen too.

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Tillman can't be a free agent until after the 2017 season. I don't think the O's will be in any rush to extend him. Not during the season and probably not his off season.

He is valuable part of the O's rotation. I don't see them trading him. But there is no rush to extend him.

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I realize that there will be some people for whom the ensuing reaction is, "whaaaa?!"

Despite its notoriety as pretty much the only official, guiding principle of a market, the Orioles are notoriously bad at selling high and buying low. We should change that right about now. Tillman should be signed to a long extension.

If you were to graph Tillman's career stats on a candlestick graph and analyze it objectively, most investors type would tell you that he is in a classic "bear trap." (This means that the majority sell out of fear, while sumart money buys back on the dip, sensing the superficialness of the current short-term downtrend.)

He's 27. He has struggled significantly will command this season, but in a statistically anomalous fashion. Before the start of this season, I would have said that we didn't have a great chance of keeping him longterm, due to the O's cautious nature with pitching. But now we have an opportunity to be the smart money, and take a shot on an excellent talent and well-liked teammate...a potential core Oriole.

Buy.

No thanks.

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Calls for signing or extensions are difficult to judge without a price tag. How much are you offering him?

There's also the complication of extending and tying yourself to a good-but-not-great pitcher and all the injury and observed performance variation baggage that goes along with a pitcher. It would be one thing to buy out arb and free agency years of a very good position player. But even if you're signing a great pitcher there's always that little voice in the back of your head that says he could turn into a pumpkin at any moment. Even a fair price based on current performance has a relatively high risk in a pitcher, and I'm sure Tillman's fair price includes giving himself a lot of credit for the O's defense because he'll eventually be trying to take that credit when he hits the market.

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Chris Tillman has been worth an average of 1-2 WAR per season since he's been here. This year so far he's at a pretty awful -0.9 WAR but I don't think most people really think that is indicative of future performance.

So if he's worth something like $6-10M per year, would you really pay him that much long term? (I'm not sure I would........and I'm not sure he'd accept it if offered)

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You can't look at his War frpm 5 years ago. He had no right biening up in the majors at that age except for the fact we were a god awful team and organization. The last three years he has been 1.5 in half a season, 4.4 and 2.4. This year he has been realy bad but lets see how he finishes the season. He still has a very high WHIP and ERA because of the Toronto starts.

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You can't look at his War frpm 5 years ago. He had no right biening up in the majors at that age except for the fact we were a god awful team and organization. The last three years he has been 1.5 in half a season, 4.4 and 2.4. This year he has been realy bad but lets see how he finishes the season. He still has a very high WHIP and ERA because of the Toronto starts.

Are those rWAR numbers (sorry, can't see bb-ref from where I am)? That's the other extreme from the FIP-based Fangraphs numbers, giving the pitcher an awful lot of credit for outcomes that are heavily influenced by defense. By fWAR he's 1.2, 1.8, and 2.3 over that same timeframe, along with +0.5 so far this year. You could argue that a reasonable position is somewhere between the two, but I wouldn't pay him based on thinking he's going to give you anything like 4-win seasons.

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On 6/29/2015 at 6:39 AM, wildcard said:

Tillman can't be a free agent until after the 2017 season. I don't think the O's will be in any rush to extend him. Not during the season and probably not his off season.

He is valuable part of the O's rotation. I don't see them trading him. But there is no rush to extend him.

How about now? There's no chance they extend him, but I thought tonight's performance leaves them with a decision about him in the off season. 

A one year deal to establish value might benefit both parties.

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