I'm drawing conclusions based on what I'm seeing and reading. You're waiting for the dinner to be served. That's fair. I think he's doing a very good job getting young talent through the international and rule iv draft. If it all goes Philadelphia on us, you'll be right. I just don't see that happening.
Just to add...
At some point there will be an inflection point, or there won't. SG and others want it now. Understood. I'd argue that even with some spending now we're still 1-2 years away, so I understand (in theory) waiting for the strategy to change.
Either way, at some point it must change (e.g., spending money to upgrade spots). On that we all agree. When that happens, I'll believe that Elias has some desire to stay here, but even then it will depend on the degree to which the change happens.
I see him as a star in the industry. That means he'll be in high demand elsewhere when he's available. He'll take that unless ownership commits to him and the team financially.
A promotion? The farm rankings aren't that impressive and are dominated by first round picks. He isn't a proven winners in trades or signing free agents. He hasn't proven he can field a competitive team.
I'm fine with what he's done for the most part but he doesn't rate a promotion.
Why would he leave? Because he's capable like Andrew Friedman and just isn't given the tools to build the house. He's like a carpenter without a nail gun or power saws.
If I were him, I'd be building this foundation as strong as possible, just like he apparently is, and then point to that when talking to rich owners and say I can do the same + with real ownership support. His next contract could be huge for GMs.
I know I'm being way premature here, but I can totally see this scenario playing out for the O's.
Well, I think it made sense enough to give Davis one season and see if the new regime could fix him. It probably also made sense to bring him back for the following spring training to see if anything had changed. I would have cut bait at the end of last spring, but the end of spring training never came and then the shortening of the season and possibility of further shortened seasons changed the calculus. We’ll never know if the O’s would have cut bait if last season had proceeded as normal.
Elias has the best job in baseball. He makes great money and has zero expectations to win.
Why would he leave? He is able to do a lot of what he likes with trades, scouting, international signings, etc....and he can do it while ownership is ok with a 60 win team.