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What would you offer Davis?

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Assuming you are of the mind that the Orioles should try to keep Chris Davis in the nest, what would you offer him? I think five years of 20 million per is fair. Other teams, of course, may well offer more years and/or more dollars per year, then Chris would have to decide whether he likes Baltimore enough to take less. Peter Angelos has seen some $10 million plus per season contracts not work out as expected, which is always a possibility (we're seeing a couple right now with Jimenez and Hardy.) Davis, IMO, has good plate discipline overall (except in his cold streaks, when he expands strike zone), which should result in good power and BP numbers over the length of the contract. It is for the same reason that I wouldn't extend Jones when his contract expires-his poor plate discipline doesn't translate into aging well as a hitter.

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The toughie is he'll be 30. Coming off a 4.0 WAR year after a 1.8 year. I think he's probably going to be a 3 win player going forward. So I think you need to be coughing up something like $18-$20m/year. He'll make more than Cruz. And definitely more than 4 years. I'm thinking at least 5 years, probably 6. As per usual, you'll have to overpay at the end of the contract. So his contract is going to start at $100m over 5.

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The toughie is he'll be 30. Coming off a 4.0 WAR year after a 1.8 year. I think he's probably going to be a 3 win player going forward. So I think you need to be coughing up something like $18-$20m/year. He'll make more than Cruz. And definitely more than 4 years. I'm thinking at least 5 years, probably 6. As per usual, you'll have to overpay at the end of the contract. So his contract is going to start at $100m over 5.

I agree. Imagine if he had not been caught twice with the drug tests.

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MLBTR envisions Boras asking for 8 years and then he and Davis settling for 6-7. I think that's about right. In the end I think he's getting something around 6/150.

I wouldn't go over 4. So... I wouldn't offer anything that would even come close to being considered seriously. Chris Davis' next team will almost certainly regret the contract.

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MLBTR envisions Boras asking for 8 years and then he and Davis settling for 6-7. I think that's about right. In the end I think he's getting something around 6/150.

I wouldn't go over 4. So... I wouldn't offer anything that would even come close to being considered seriously. Chris Davis' next team will almost certainly regret the contract.

I will miss him on the team but at $150 million I won't. I expect he will be good for a couple of years and slowly recede to an aging 20ish homer bat. Still a valuable asset, just not worth 20+.

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5/125 is what I give him.

Rank these four FAs in total dollars committed: Upton, Davis, Heyward, Cespedes. Any other position players I'm leaving out?

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Alex Gordon is the other big name. Maybe Zobrist and Ian Desmond given their ability to play middle infield. And Boras would tell you to include Wieters too.

At the end of the day, the money will go after pitching (Price, Grienke, Cueto, Zimmerman, etc).

Unless teams think Davis can be passable OF, that narrows possibilities because most of the big spenders are set there.

NYY -- still have our friend Tex

TOR -- EE and probably tapped out financially

BOS -- future position for Hanley or Panda

LAD -- AGon

Cubs -- Rizzo

DET -- MCab

LAA -- Pujols

TEX -- Fielder

Who does that realistically leave aside from SEA and NYM (although depending on Cespedes and budget, are they really a player?)? Boras will try to drum up interest from WAS too.

I'm relatively optimistic on O's re-signing Davis as long as $$$ does not exceed $100m or $20m AAV.

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