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DrungoHazewood

2015-16 Real Football Thread

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I do miss the weekly back and forth after each round of EPL games. I'll post here and just talk to myself if I have to.

My club (Newcastle United) is doing horribly and I knew they would so I haven't been as focused this year. 10 points after 12 games and 4th from bottom is horrendous. I can take solace from knowing this season so far Sunderland is even more pathetic with a whopping 6 points.

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My club (Newcastle United) is doing horribly and I knew they would so I haven't been as focused this year. 10 points after 12 games and 4th from bottom is horrendous. I can take solace from knowing this season so far Sunderland is even more pathetic with a whopping 6 points.

I bet if someone told you Newcastle would be a point behind Chelsea in mid November you'd have taken it.

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I bet if someone told you Newcastle would be a point behind Chelsea in mid November you'd have taken it.

Ha, no doubt! We've played a bit better as of late so that's promising. Can't remember how long it's been that Chelsea has been in such poor form.

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I respect Mourinho as a manager, but there's little I enjoy more in football than watching him squirm.

I can't stand Mourinho, but he has some epic interviews and an ego that makes Reggie Jackson look like a kid who just got stuffed in his locker. I've never seen a manager who never accepts blame for anything, and always says that he had the better side. When Spurs beat Chelsea 5-3 in January his postgame interview was all about how Chelsea got screwed by the refs and how he couldn't talk about it because he'd get suspended again and the whole game turned on a bad call allowing an inferior team to win. And when Chelsea started losing in earnest this year I think his quote was "If I get sacked they'll have sacked the best manager Chelsea ever had." So I fully expect them to beat Spurs this weekend, that's just the way the world works.

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I can't stand Mourinho, but he has some epic interviews and an ego that makes Reggie Jackson look like a kid who just got stuffed in his locker.

You mean like this one? I was cracking up. God bless the guy trying to interview him. He was really trying.

[video=youtube;ygB7P7rg8u4]

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Leicester City two points clear after 15 games? Is this for real?

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html

You have to think not, but it would be the story of the year in world sport if they stayed on top. I think their wages are something like 40 million pounds, compared to well over 200 million for Man U. Pretty much nobody outside of the top six or eight in wages ever even qualifies for European competition. It appears that salary is much more closely correlated to results in the EPL than in MLB.

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I just meant is it real right now. Like am I seeing the standings correctly. Their next six fixtures are Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Bournemouth, and Tottenham. We'll learn a lot very quickly. My guess is they'll come back down to earth. I'll be rooting for them though.

On one of NBC's Premier League shows they were discussing whether or not Leicester will sell Vardy or Mahrez in the January transfer window. Their values are nearly maxed right now and it would bring a huge influx of cash to the team. Again this upcoming stretch of games will tell us a lot. You have to think a club that small would be adverse to European football too. You need a lot of extra depth to cover the extra games and it could be a serious detriment next season if they regress and are anywhere near relegation.

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There's a couple of interesting things at play here for LC (and other clubs not considered to be part of the Big 6).

1) If you go for a top 4 finish in the Prem and can qualify for the CL the financial rewards can be quite significant - so much so that it would allow a lesser team to spend more money on depth to help them not be relegated the next year. Below if from the UEFA website:

The 32 clubs featuring in the 2014/15 UEFA Champions League group stage can anticipate a minimum €8.6m. The side that eventually wins the UEFA Champions League title this term could collect €37.4m, not counting the market pool share. Each of the 32 teams involved in the group stage will collect a base fee of €8.6m. Performance bonuses will also see €1m paid for a win and €500,000 for a draw in the group phase. The sides competing in the round of 16 can also expect to receive €3.5m each, the eight quarter-finalists €3.9m and the four semi-finalists €4.9m. The UEFA Champions League winners will pick up €10.5m and the runners-up €6.5m.

2) Next year starts the new TV contract for the Prem in the UK and it's staggering.

(from ESPNFC) The Premier League's new broadcasting deal, which works out to 1.7 billion pounds ($2.6 billion) per season, made it the second-most lucrative sports league in the world behind the NFL, which generates a staggering 4.5 billion pounds ($7 billion) per season. The NBA's new television deal is worth around 1.5 billion pounds ($2.3 billion) per year.

Compared to its European counterparts, however, the Premier League is well ahead when it comes to television money. Germany's Bundesliga generates around 500 million pounds ($770 million) per year, while La Liga nets around 560 million pounds ($860 million) per year; however, most of that is gobbled up by the big two of Barcelona and Real Madrid because Spain has no collective agreement in place. Italy's Serie A generates just over 700 million pounds ($1.1 billion) per year.

Has the Premier League hit a ceiling with its football television deals?

No. More cash is on the way with the sale of overseas rights later this year. The previous deal was worth just over 2.23 billion pounds ($3.5 billion), and with interest in the Premier League growing, particularly in Asia, many feel that the new contract could be worth double, if not more. This could mean that the combined value of the Premier League's broadcasting deal (domestic and overseas) could be worth somewhere around a mouthwatering 9-10 billion pounds ($13-15 billion).

There is a great incentive to do whatever it takes not to be relegated. If I were an owner of a club like LC I would probably think that going for a top 4 and a CL berth was worth it, but would rather tank a few matches than finish 5 or 6 and get the Europa League (terrible travel schedule and many non-desirable locations). The little bit of extra revenue from the EL would not make me want to risk relegation and missing out on the pot of gold.

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Agreed about Leicester. I'm sure they are thrilled with their start and with the way the BPL has gone this year maybe they have a shot. At the same time they could do more harm than good if they finish 4/5/6. They have a nine point lead over 4th right now, so I could see them making a real push for Champions League football.

With Arsenal's win over Man City yesterday I'm starting to feel like they might be the favorites to win the league. Everyone has warts. Even without Sanchez, Cazorla, and Coquelin the Gunners looked excellent.

What's with the rumors of Mourinho to Man U? That would be a headlines monster.

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Has the Premier League hit a ceiling with its football television deals?

No. More cash is on the way with the sale of overseas rights later this year. The previous deal was worth just over 2.23 billion pounds ($3.5 billion), and with interest in the Premier League growing, particularly in Asia, many feel that the new contract could be worth double, if not more. This could mean that the combined value of the Premier League's broadcasting deal (domestic and overseas) could be worth somewhere around a mouthwatering 9-10 billion pounds ($13-15 billion).

I wonder what this would do to the promotion/relegation model. Promotion could mean a 10-fold (or more!) increase in annual revenues. What does a Championship side bring in a year? I'd guess it's in the mid $10s of millions, but I don't really know. $15B a year in league media revenues would mean something like $750M per team per year. So promotion might mean total revenues go from $30M/year to $800M/year. And relegation the opposite. Can that even work? Isn't that like throwing $100 bills into a crowd of people waiting at a soup kitchen? If you were Blackburn Rovers or Nottingham Forest wouldn't you sell your firstborn and your kidney to finance a transfer to put you over the top? And those end of the season relegation battles would be some kind of Thunderdome fight to the death.

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Here is the info for how the TV revenues will be distributed (2016-2019)

Premier-League-TV-rights-money-distribution-final-infograph.jpg

The link to the article and a larger version of this chart.... http://www.totalsportek.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Premier-League-TV-rights-money-distribution-final-infograph.jpg

And from: http://http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/557584/Premier-League-clubs-earn-season-How-new-TV-deal-spent here's how the money is distributed among Prem and lesser league clubs.

Here is a breakdown of how the full ?5.1bn will be spent.

- Under the current deal, 95 percent of the domestic TV income goes directly to the clubs. That would equate to ?4.9bn spanning the 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons.

- That figure would see an average of ?81m per season going directly to the clubs, with money from overseas TV rights and sponsorship to come on top of that.

- Premier League clubs currently spend around 70 percent of their overall income on wages - at that level it would mean ?3.42bn of the money the 20 clubs stand to receive over the three years ending up in the pockets of players and their agents.

- The Premier League says currently five percent of its domestic TV income - ?56m a year under the current deal - goes to grassroots football, community projects and good causes. If the five percent is maintained for 2016-19 that would be ?256m over three seasons or ?85.3m annually.

- Parachute payments for clubs relegated to the Championship stand at ?62m per club over four years, but that is likely to increase from 2016.

- Solidarity payments to lower league clubs currently total around ?55m a year - Championship clubs receive ?2.3m annually (unless they receive parachute payments), League One clubs ?360,000 and League Two 240,000. A 70 per rise would see that total reach around ?90m.

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OK. Feb 7th...13 (12?) matches to go...Leicester City is 5 points clear after thoroughly dominating MC at the Etihad. Isn't this great!!!! Top 4 and Champions league almost a certainty with the Prem title an increasing possibility.

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