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% Chances Chris Davis Signs with O's

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I see people saying this, but I have no idea what this means. We would have paid him $22 million this year. We would have paid him another $22 million next year. We would have paid him another $22 million the year after that, and so on for seven years. How, exactly, are we going to be spreading that out over the next few years? I'm just not seeing it. If we don't sign or trade for a player of similar lineup impact to Davis, the Davis money simply isn't being used. Remember now, Had we signed Davis, we would have had to get at least one other hitter (probably an outfielder) plus a SP. Moneys spent on a second bat and a SP are not out of the Davis money, unless the SP is a top flight arm, which I think we all agree isn't happening.

If we sign a player to a hypothetical three year deal for 33 million and another to a five year for 50 now and yet another to a five year 70 in 2017, does that not use up all the same funds over the exact same time frame?

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I'll go with 20%. We don't know the teams but there will be bidders. Once there are bidders, we are done. O's made it a priority to bring back O'Day because he was the least expensive of the big four. That and the offer to Davis were PR, IMO. The fact that the O's don't want to use the Davis money on someone else makes me think that they don't really want to use it on Davis either.

I understand you?re frustrated, but the bolded seems a pretty ridiculous point of view. On the one hand, you excoriate DD for not knowing that Boras would allow Matt to accept a $15.8M offer, but here you seem to accuse DD of knowing with certainty that Boras would not allow CD to accept a $154M offer. It is entirely possible that Angelos would allow the budget to go so high only for CD, but this was not a ?PR? offer.

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If we sign a player to a hypothetical three year deal for 33 million and another to a five year for 50 now and yet another to a five year 70 in 2017, does that not use up all the same funds over the exact same time frame?

As I said, the Orioles were looking to sign a SP and a second bat anyway. We were even talking to Gallardo at the same time we offered Davis the 7/$150. Money spent to sign a second bat at a SP is money we were already spending, not the Davis money. Now I can see if we spend a bit more than anticipated, a little bit of it may come from the Davis money. Let's remember though, that the Davis money is $22 million each year for seven years. If we aren't spending $22 million more than we would have anyway for a second bat and a SP, we aren't really spending the Davis money. Maybe a little bit of it, if we are taking on three contracts of the size you are talking about, but not nearly all of it.

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As I said, the Orioles were looking to sign a SP and a second bat anyway. We were even talking to Gallardo at the same time we offered Davis the 7/$150. Money spent to sign a second bat at a SP is money we were already spending, not the Davis money. Now I can see if we spend a bit more than anticipated, a little bit of it may come from the Davis money. Let's remember though, that the Davis money is $22 million each year for seven years. If we aren't spending $22 million more than we would have anyway for a second bat and a SP, we aren't really spending the Davis money. Maybe a little bit of it, if we are taking on three contracts of the size you are talking about, but not nearly all of it.

What if they had other deals, you know, like a two year 12 and a three year 18 million dollar deal to go with. I never believed that the Orioles were going to spend 155 million this year. Did you?

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As I said, the Orioles were looking to sign a SP and a second bat anyway. We were even talking to Gallardo at the same time we offered Davis the 7/$150. Money spent to sign a second bat at a SP is money we were already spending, not the Davis money. Now I can see if we spend a bit more than anticipated, a little bit of it may come from the Davis money. Let's remember though, that the Davis money is $22 million each year for seven years. If we aren't spending $22 million more than we would have anyway for a second bat and a SP, we aren't really spending the Davis money. Maybe a little bit of it, if we are taking on three contracts of the size you are talking about, but not nearly all of it.

You could sign a 10 million dollar starter. and five million dollar bat if so. Had you heard of any other large offers made to anyone while Davis was still in play?

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What if they had other deals, you know, like a two year 12 and a three year 18 million dollar deal to go with. I never believed that the Orioles were going to spend 155 million this year. Did you?

Yes, if they did that, they would be, however, I'm not seeing them signing that many guys, are you? As I see it, they are looking to fill three spots. Had they signed Davis, they would still have been filling two additional spots. I think a lot of us are losing sight of that fact. Not everyone we sign will be out of the Davis money.

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Same as it has been since the beginning: 0%

which is a good thing because Davis will underperform his new contract by a large margin.

Can't believe people are just ignoring that the guy hit .196 in 2014 and is and Aderall/Nocotine addict.

I can understand if you want to use stats as a reason for not signing Davis that's fine. But falsely accusing the man of being an addict without any knowledge is just wrong.

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I'll say 90% because I don't think another team will come close to matching the 7/154 that was on the table.
I think you are right. I've heard that STL isn't interested in CD. If that is true then he simply has no other place to go. We will probably have to wait until STL resolves their OF/SP situation but eventually he'll have to come back to the O's or take a one year deal and try again next year.

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I think you are right. I've heard that STL isn't interested in CD. If that is true then he simply has no other place to go. We will probably have to wait until STL resolves their OF/SP situation but eventually he'll have to come back to the O's or take a one year deal and try again next year.

But see, the O's could have already signed a bunch of other guys by that point, and may not be willing or able to give Davis even a shorter-term deal. Or a dark horse team could emerge out of the depths like we've already seen in a few instances. I bet Boras will try to go to work on the Cards and fail, but that process could take till February, and by then I actually hope the Orioles have at least signed a starting pitcher if not another position player.

Would be awesome to be able to choose between Span or a discounted Davis in late Feb, with time on our side by that point, but I doubt that happens.

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With every passing day, the odds of Davis signing a 7+ year deal drop exponentially. Pretty soon he'll be lucky to get six years. Oh sure, he'll get some good money, but he's not going to get the kind of job security the O's were offering him. When he's 35 and hitting .190 he's going to be kicking himself for turning our offer down.

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What if they had other deals, you know, like a two year 12 and a three year 18 million dollar deal to go with. I never believed that the Orioles were going to spend 155 million this year. Did you?

The problem with this team has very little to do with payroll.

It has far more to do with poor spending of resources and a terrible player development system that despite DD's protests, really does suck comparative to most of MLB.

Both those things fall on DD in my opinion. If anyone has a motivation to spend and get better players, its Dan. If he has it, he will spend it, if not then looks like its gonna be a rough year for DD.

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But see, the O's could have already signed a bunch of other guys by that point, and may not be willing or able to give Davis even a shorter-term deal. Or a dark horse team could emerge out of the depths like we've already seen in a few instances. I bet Boras will try to go to work on the Cards and fail, but that process could take till February, and by then I actually hope the Orioles have at least signed a starting pitcher if not another position player.

Would be awesome to be able to choose between Span or a discounted Davis in late Feb, with time on our side by that point, but I doubt that happens.

We aren't spending a lot of money on an OF or SP IMO. Chen is the best SP on the market after Cueto IMO and he's not worth the 5/80 M or more he's going to get. I think they will be looking at Fister, Clon or reclamation types, and cheap OF like Venable or Kim.

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