18M and that is with the cost of the signing bonus already subtracted out. So pretty much 22M in expected future value for 12.7M in certain present savings. It’s a pretty high discount rate, but not totally crazy if it lets the Angels acquire another win now piece.
I don’t know him, but especially with 2080baseball not doing a Rule 5 preview this year, his is the only comparable Rule 5 Draft preview in the public domain. He’s been doing it for a lot longer than me and he has sources, so it’s a solid measuring stick for my work on the subject.
This is a nuts offseason isn't it.
I'm going to start with his Steamer 2020 predictions, which are 5.5 WAR. I figure he's good for:
That's an estimated 30.5 WAR. Assuming FA rates are at around 8mm/WAR, that's an expected return of about 244m. Not too bad.
cost per WAR has stayed stagnant/regressed slightly in the past couple years, so there's no guarantee that the future will see more expensive prices. This seems like fair market value for a good player that's been moderately durable for his career. Hopefully he doesn't fall off a cliff like Pujols did.