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Orioles sign Gallardo (Waiting on Fowler)

What Would You Do?  

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  1. 1. What Would You Do?

    • Sign Gallardo (Post how much to offer)
    • Save the 14th Pick


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Is it a mistake if the 3 of the current starters out perform Gallardo over the next three years for less money and the 14th pick ends up being the next Jose Fernandez or Jeff Weaver (both taken 14th overall)??

Well yea in that case it is, but none of us know for certain what's going to happen here, we all have to wait and see. No meed to press the panic button. Not to mention the Orioles aren't exactly the team that develops pitching

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Is it a mistake if the 3 of the current starters out perform Gallardo over the next three years for less money and the 14th pick ends up being the next Jose Fernandez or Jeff Weaver (both taken 14th overall)??

Which three current starters will be Orioles for year 3?

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As I said last night, they met in person this morning in Baltimore. Gallardo was present with his agetns, the meeting went very very well. They are close to signing him. Will be a 4 year deal.

Looks like you are spot on with the info. Very nice! Much appreciated. You previously said it would be nice if they could get Fowler as well, was that just your own speculation or also based on info? I must admit that if we could get him at a heavily discounted price as well, it would take the sting out of losing that pick on Gallardo.

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Just like Cruz followed Ubaldo, if we complete Gallardo, our barrier to Fowler or Desmond drops significantly compared to the rest of baseball.

Ubaldo was Feb. 19, then Cruz was Feb. 24. I imagine there will be speculation this weekend on how low the price would need to go to be right.

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If it's anything more than 3/30 or 4/36, I'm going to hate this deal. So, I'm going to hate this deal.

I'd be good with 3/36... better with 2/28 with options. Keep in mind, the pick is important, but there are many ways to stock your farm system. Trades, international free agents, etc. That said, I wouldn't say trading is one of Dan's core strengths! My point is, we can strengthen the farm in many ways besides the draft.

If the Orioles are tanking like crazy mid-season, perhaps you could see some trades for prospects. We have some valuable chips, for sure.

This pick does not represent the entire future of the organization. If that were the case, we'd be in much deeper trouble than I thought!

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Gausman, Tillman, and/or Wilson/Wright. Gonzalez may also play this year into two more.

What kind of extension do you think it'll take to keep Tillman? Why wouldn't he test FA? Same with Gonzalez.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gallardo, O's moving close to a deal. Talk is 3 guaranteed years (buyout also possible). Not done yet.</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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If we sign Gallardo, this DD trainwreck can't end soon enough. He is going to leave behind a devastated farm system and large amounts of deferred salary. Folks want to argue that these high draft picks have value if given up for the right price, so I ask - where is that value now for DD's past moves?

Where is the value for the pick for signing Ubaldo? $23.5M spent for 2.1 WAR per Baseball Reference.

Where is the value for the pick for trading the relief pitcher dealt last year when we now have big deferred $?

Where is the value for the pick we gave up for Bud Norris? $15M for less than 1 WAR per BR.

DD did find some gold for the pick for Cruz which resulted in big value and a higher new pick.

One for four.

Remember Ubaldo, on the advice of his agent for fear of injury, did not work out prior to signing in 2014. Has Gallardo worked out this offseason or might his first year after signing also be a complete dud for the same reason?

If you keep moving/forfeiting picks for value and don't find other avenues to make up for the deficit in amateur talent acquisition, the only place to end up is near the bottom of the league in minor league talent. Overwhelmingly, teams short on minor league talent can find the short term competitive landscape very difficult at the major league level. This trainwreck has been years in the making and it could be upon us very soon.

I thought the most important thing is winning? We rebuilt for 14 straight years, what did

those draft picks all those years do to help us win. If you want rebuilding again, then expect to lose again, not me!!!

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If we want a shot at signing Manny to an extension, we need to show him we are going to be a competitor and not rebuilding. Our offence is good enough to win the division....starting pitching is our weakness, and this will help improve that weakness.

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I'd be good with 3/36... better with 2/28 with options. Keep in mind, the pick is important, but there are many ways to stock your farm system. Trades, international free agents, etc. That said, I wouldn't say trading is one of Dan's core strengths! My point is, we can strengthen farm-system pipelines other than the draft as well, and we should be doing that anyway.

If the Orioles are tanking like crazy mid-season, perhaps you could see some trades. We have some valuable chips, for sure.

Some seem to think this pick represents the entire future of the organization or something. If that's the case, we're in much deeper trouble than I thoughts.

I agree that you can put a dollar value on the pick, and there's a certain contract where signing Gallardo makes sense. The value of the pick is hard to quantify, but probably like $10-$25 million. Without the pick, Gallardo probably gets something like a 4/50 market value deal. There's some wiggle room for a deal that makes sense in overall value where you give up a pick and sign Gallardo, but it's probably by getting 3-4 years and committing ~30 million to him.

The problem that many are (rightly) fixated on is that the Orioles don't invest in the farm system through international signings or by trading major league pieces. They almost entirely rely on the draft. Giving up the #14 pick and the draft pool money that comes along with it is very damaging to our pre-existing established avenue of adding amateur talent, and I don't expect us to branch out at all. If they turn around and spend money on an international player who is comparable to a #14 pick, then this doesn't look so bad. But there's very, very little chance they do something like that IMO.

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I'd be good with 3/36... better with 2/28 with options. Keep in mind, the pick is important, but there are many ways to stock your farm system. Trades, international free agents, etc. That said, I wouldn't say trading is one of Dan's core strengths! My point is, we can strengthen the farm in many ways besides the draft.

If the Orioles are tanking like crazy mid-season, perhaps you could see some trades for prospects. We have some valuable chips, for sure.

This pick does not represent the entire future of the organization. If that were the case, we'd be in much deeper trouble than I thought!

Spot on Spot on!!!

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I agree that you can put a dollar value on the pick, and there's a certain contract where signing Gallardo makes sense. The value of the pick is hard to quantify, but probably like $10-$25 million. Without the pick, Gallardo probably gets something like a 4/50 market value deal. There's some wiggle room for a deal that makes sense in overall value where you give up a pick and sign Gallardo, but it's probably by getting 3-4 years and committing ~30 million to him.

The problem that many are (rightly) fixated on is that the Orioles don't invest in the farm system through international signings or by trading major league pieces. They almost entirely rely on the draft. Giving up the #14 pick and the draft pool money that comes along with it is very damaging to our pre-existing established avenue of adding amateur talent, and I don't expect us to branch out at all. If they turn around and spend money on an international player who is comparable to a #14 pick, then this doesn't look so bad. But there's very, very little chance they do something like that IMO.

What's saying they can't change. You are assuming they will forever continue just counting on the draft.

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