We have no way of ever knowing that. It appears they had a plan and got as close to it as they could, right? The only hiccup seems to be they maybe hoped a pitcher they liked would have slipped to the supplemental round. But we don't even know that for sure. Your opinion on this draft really hinges on whether you like the underslot 1st round/overslot 3-5 rounds. Whether or not they spent 98% vs 100% of their money really is a non-factor compared to the larger picture of: do you agree with the draft approach or not.
How much more could the Jays have paid without incurring burdensome penalties?
Their bonus total is $10.2M and their allotment is/was $9.7M
I just don't see how you're using him signing over the slot at which he was selected, taking the team to it's 105% number in the process, as evidence that he would have signed for slot in Baltimore. If anything it rules out that he would have been an underslot candidate and/or is inconclusive evidence.