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Jim Henneman: Computers Don't Like Orioles, Royals

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They also seem to have troubles properly quantifying team defense.

I think strength of bullpen is still not appropriately taken into account either. The models just go by straight RS/RA.

That, plus the fact that the Orioles' best relievers look to far outperform their projects in the first place, are a big reason why most O's fans think they'll beat the team projections. Britton/O'day are much better than FIP credits them for because of their extremely unique profiles, and Givens should vastly outperform the conventional projection system because of his late-career conversion to pitching and bad numbers prior to last year (in addition to his own brand of unique profile).

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They also seem to have troubles properly quantifying team defense.

The fact that current defensive stats take more than 1 season to truly stabilize means that they are largely useless for predictive stats.

There is a lot of data available now in MLB Gameday that might be used to generate better stats, but it's a lot of data to go through.

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