Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
PressBoxOnline

Who Is A Better Fit For Orioles: Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson Or Pedro Alvarez

Recommended Posts

Jay Bruce is a phenomenal bounce back candidate. I'm not going to say trade Harvey for him, but I think his peripherals indicate he can return to form.

Yeah he had a terrible 2014 at age 27. But rumors have it he was hurt and really shouldn't have been playing.

2015 he showed improvement but didn't return to his previous numbers. His standard numbers:

<PRE>

Year Age PA 2B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+

2008 21 452 17 21 33 110 .254 .314 .453 .767 97

2009 22 387 15 22 38 75 .223 .303 .470 .773 101

2010 23 573 23 25 58 136 .281 .353 .493 .846 124

2011 24 664 27 32 71 158 .256 .341 .474 .814 118

2012 25 633 35 34 62 155 .252 .327 .514 .841 121

2013 26 697 43 30 63 185 .262 .329 .478 .807 120

2014 27 545 21 18 44 149 .217 .281 .373 .654 82

2015 28 649 35 26 58 145 .226 .294 .434 .729 97

8 Yrs 4600 216 208 427 1113 .248 .319 .462 .781 109

162 Game Avg. 664 31 30 62 161 .248 .319 .462 .781 109

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_standard">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 2/29/2016.

However, his 2015 peripherals show a return to normal AND his BABIP was low, so there may be nothing wrong with him, just just the double bad luck of following up a bad year with an unlucky year.

<PRE>

Year Age PA RC/G BAbip OPS+ ISO

2008 21 452 4.6 .296 97 .199

2009 22 387 4.7 .221 101 .246

2010 23 573 6.1 .334 124 .212

2011 24 664 5.6 .297 118 .217

2012 25 633 6.0 .283 121 .263

2013 26 697 5.6 .322 120 .216

2014 27 545 3.5 .269 82 .156

2015 28 649 4.2 .251 97 .209

8 Yrs 4600 5.1 .287 109 .215

162 Game Avg. 664 5.1 .287 109 .215

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01-bat.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_advanced">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 2/29/2016.

Look at that ISO, not back to where it should be, but also lok at BAbip, that could easily return to normal in 2016.

Ratios. HR/FB rate stayed low and has been declining, this is a concern, but he still managed 26 dingers.

LD% is actually up.

GB/FB rate in 2014 was way out of line, 2015 returned to normal.

BB and SO rates are actually BETTER in 2015 then during his best years. This indicates improved plate discipline.

<PRE>

Year Age HR% SO% BB% XBH% X/H% SO/W AB/SO AB/HR AB/RBI GB/FB GO/AO IP% LD% HR/FB IF/FB

2008 21 4.7% 24.3% 7.3% 8.6% 37% 3.33 3.8 19.7 7.9 0.82 1.20 63% 22% 14.2% 11%

2009 22 5.7% 19.4% 9.8% 10.1% 51% 1.97 4.6 15.7 5.9 0.65 0.74 64% 14% 15.5% 13%

2010 23 4.4% 23.7% 10.1% 9.3% 37% 2.34 3.7 20.4 7.3 0.58 0.78 62% 21% 12.2% 13%

2011 24 4.8% 23.8% 10.7% 9.2% 41% 2.23 3.7 18.3 6.0 0.57 0.69 60% 18% 13.2% 11%

2012 25 5.4% 24.5% 9.8% 11.7% 53% 2.50 3.6 16.5 5.7 0.56 0.75 60% 20% 14.6% 11%

2013 26 4.3% 26.5% 9.0% 10.6% 45% 2.94 3.4 20.9 5.7 0.60 0.91 60% 29% 11.8% 8%

2014 27 3.3% 27.3% 8.1% 7.3% 37% 3.39 3.3 27.4 7.5 0.92 1.02 61% 27% 11.1% 10%

2015 28 4.0% 22.3% 8.9% 10.0% 50% 2.50 4.0 22.3 6.7 0.59 0.78 64% 29% 10.4% 10%

8 Yrs 4.5% 24.2% 9.3% 9.7% 44% 2.61 3.7 19.8 6.4 0.64 0.84 61% 23% 12.7% 11%

MLB Averages 2.6% 19.1% 8.2% 7.6% 33% 2.34 4.7 35.1 8.3 0.82 1.10 69% 21% 7.6% 13%

</PRE>

Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool">Baseball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01-bat.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#batting_ratio">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 2/29/2016.

My best guess, he got hurt in 2014. Injury really hampered his ability to lift the ball with any authority. 2015 he hadn't entirely recovered and bad luck (BABIP) made his season worse then it should have been.

A change of scenery could really do wonders for this guy. Reminds me of JJ Hardy coming to the Orioles.

How much would I part with for him? That's tough, it would have to be a salary dump of sorts to make up for the risk that my numbers are wrong and he is just hurt permanently.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not as confident as some, but I would go Bruce, Jackson then Alvarez. I would like Alvarez but Trumbo scares me in the RF.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would rank them in order of best options as Jackson, Alvarez, Bruce. Bruce costs the most and is going to cost assets to trade for. I haven't been around here in a few days, so can someone catch me up on what Sirloin has said about Bruce?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would rank them in order of best options as Jackson, Alvarez, Bruce. Bruce costs the most and is going to cost assets to trade for. I haven't been around here in a few days, so can someone catch me up on what Sirloin has said about Bruce?

I believe just that he is our #2 choice behind Fowler. Not aware of any more info than that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In the end, the one who best fits the Orioles is Jackson. He's not the most thrilling player, but he's the safest bet to contribute in some way. The O's have been a team built on defense the past three seasons, and Jackson should be able to cover a lot of ground in right field. Plus, even though Jackson doesn't have the offensive ceiling of Bruce or Alvarez, he has the highest career OBP of the three (.333). The O's could use a hitter with the ability to get on base amidst a lineup stacked with sluggers. If Jackson can be even a league-average offensive player, he can help the Birds in 2016.

I pretty much agree with all of this, but would have preferred David Murphy over all of them.

David, who signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox. Who have less OF room than the Orioles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah he had a terrible 2014 at age 27. But rumors have it he was hurt and really shouldn't have been playing.

More than just rumors. He tore his meniscus in his knee in 2014 and was never quite the same after surgery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would rank them in order of best options as Jackson, Alvarez, Bruce. Bruce costs the most and is going to cost assets to trade for. I haven't been around here in a few days, so can someone catch me up on what Sirloin has said about Bruce?

Have to disagree.

Jackson doesn't provide much value at all. Four consecutive sub-700 OPS seasons and much of his value is tied to being a centerfielder. If he's in right field, his value diminishes and we may as well have kept David Lough for a fraction of the price.

Alvarez has as much if not more power potential than Bruce, but he's a full-time DH. Had we known we were going to be able to re-sign Crush, I would've rather had Alvarez than Trumbo because of the cost and the LH bat, but that ship has sailed.

Bruce may cost assets, but his price tag isn't any worse than what we would've been paying Fowler. If DD was able to get a budget to pay Fowler $13M/year and he can get PA to maintain that spending commitment, they may be able to get Bruce for peanuts in prospects in exchange for the full price of the contract.

Funny when you remember the Reds were the other team in the running for the Erik Bedard Sweepstakes and the O's were holding out for Bruce, who was the top prospect in the league at the time. Instead we got AJ and Tillman. Now we're deciding if it's worth sending a few too-old-for-their level prospects to the Reds for him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Have to disagree.

Jackson doesn't provide much value at all. Four consecutive sub-700 OPS seasons and much of his value is tied to being a centerfielder. If he's in right field, his value diminishes and we may as well have kept David Lough for a fraction of the price.

Alvarez has as much if not more power potential than Bruce, but he's a full-time DH. Had we known we were going to be able to re-sign Crush, I would've rather had Alvarez than Trumbo because of the cost and the LH bat, but that ship has sailed.

Bruce may cost assets, but his price tag isn't any worse than what we would've been paying Fowler. If DD was able to get a budget to pay Fowler $13M/year and he can get PA to maintain that spending commitment, they may be able to get Bruce for peanuts in prospects in exchange for the full price of the contract.

Funny when you remember the Reds were the other team in the running for the Erik Bedard Sweepstakes and the O's were holding out for Bruce, who was the top prospect in the league at the time. Instead we got AJ and Tillman. Now we're deciding if it's worth sending a few too-old-for-their level prospects to the Reds for him.

This is where I am at. Jackson isn't likely to be better then Kim/Rickard/Dariel Alvarez/Trumbo.

If they go get someone, I'd say Bruce is the best target, but the Reds may (should) want to much for him. Bruce at $12 million is actually a pretty good value.

I'd move Christian Walker and Brian Matusz for him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Have to disagree.

Jackson doesn't provide much value at all. Four consecutive sub-700 OPS seasons and much of his value is tied to being a centerfielder. If he's in right field, his value diminishes and we may as well have kept David Lough for a fraction of the price.

Alvarez has as much if not more power potential than Bruce, but he's a full-time DH. Had we known we were going to be able to re-sign Crush, I would've rather had Alvarez than Trumbo because of the cost and the LH bat, but that ship has sailed.

Bruce may cost assets, but his price tag isn't any worse than what we would've been paying Fowler. If DD was able to get a budget to pay Fowler $13M/year and he can get PA to maintain that spending commitment, they may be able to get Bruce for peanuts in prospects in exchange for the full price of the contract.

Funny when you remember the Reds were the other team in the running for the Erik Bedard Sweepstakes and the O's were holding out for Bruce, who was the top prospect in the league at the time. Instead we got AJ and Tillman. Now we're deciding if it's worth sending a few too-old-for-their level prospects to the Reds for him.

You might want to check Jackson's stats again. Last year his OPS was just under .700 at .696, 2014 it was .655 but in 100 games with Detroit it was .730 prior to getting moved to Seattle.

In 2012 and 2013, Jackson's OPS was .856 and .754, respectively.

I think Jackson could be primed for a bounceback, especially getting out of an offensive graveyard like Safeco.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If all we can count on from Jackson is defense then why not stay in house with Rickard or Hoes. Both are good defenders and have decent OBP in the MiL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a thought, lets sign Alverez, Trade Trumbo with one of our numerous outfielders to the A's for JJ Redick. The A's could really use the power. We add 2 left handed bats to balance our lineup and I think Redick is known to be a solid outfielders.

I'm actually not that great at making trade suggestions like some but right now I would prefer Alverez over Trumbo for our lineup. It would be nice to then trade Trumbo and Player X somewhere to fill out RF issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bruce and Jackson are the same age coning off two similarly poor seasons. Lets say they regress to their means. I'd rather have the guy who is regressing toward .248 .319 .462 .781 30 HR 96 RBI, than the guy regressing toward .273 .333 .399 .732 10 HR 56 RBI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bruce and Jackson are the same age coning off two similarly poor seasons. Lets say they regress to their means. I'd rather have the guy who is regressing toward .248 .319 .462 .781 30 HR 96 RBI, than the guy regressing toward .273 .333 .399 .732 10 HR 56 RBI.

That's not a bad way to look at it. Though I'd choose Jackson because you don't have to give anybody up and you can play him in center if Jones misses extended time like he did last season. Plus there should be around 5-6M in salary difference that could be used for a mid season acquisition.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...