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Old#5fan

Is Anyone Else Sick of the Loewen Bashing?

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I just don't understand how anyone can bash the home team players.

For some people, if they're not complaining and dissing somebody, they have nothing else to say.

Face it: While we do have many posters who are knowledgeable about baseball, we also have our share of [expletive deleted]'s too. There's no admission exam, no test about baseball competence... anybody can show up. That's just how it is...

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RShack, i guess you ae right. But for Loewen wasn't his just his 2nd start? Or 3rd? How can anyone get their ideas of him just after that few starts? Or for Cabrera either. I think you have to wait until the season is over before any palyer can be judged.

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Oldfan, if you want to see an example of how walk rates effect performance just look at the development of Erik Bedard. BB/9:ERA 2004 4.65:4.59; 2005 3.62:4.00; 2006 3.16:3.76; 2007 2.82:3.16. We can all agree that Bedard has exceptional stuff but even he didn't find success until he developed above-average command. I think Loewen's ground ball tendencies will allow him some leeway in comparison to your average pitcher but it is still (apart from health) the key factor to whether or not he fulfills his ceiling.

That said, I agree that people need to be more patient on a start-by-start basis with Loewen. It wasn't so long ago that Erik Bedard was a demotion to the bullpen candidate on this board. As long as I see improvement in the second half, which I expect, I'll view this season as as a step foward. But if your argument is that people shouldn't be worried long term about walking five in six because he won the game then you're just wrong. That'd be like saying you don't have to worry about driving blackout drunk any given night because you've done it before without killing anyone.

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Too bad stats don't show us anything. Only our eyes can prove facts, stupid!

"Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity."

I just read this quote somewhere, and although it relates to a different topic, it somehow seems applicable here.....;)

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Oldfan, if you want to see an example of how walk rates effect performance just look at the development of Eric Bedard. BB/9:ERA 2004 4.65:4.59; 2005 3.62:4.00; 2006 3.16:3.76; 2007 2.82:3.16. We can all agree that Bedard has exceptional stuff but even he didn't find success until he developed above-average command. I think Loewen's ground ball tendencies will allow him some leeway in comparison to your average pitcher but it is still (apart from health) the key factor to whether or not he fulfills his ceiling.

That said, I agree that people need to be more patient on a start-by-start basis with Loewen. It wasn't so long ago that Eric Bedard was a demotion to the bullpen candidate on this board. As long as I see improvement in the second half, which I expect, I'll view this season as as a step foward. But if your argument is that people shouldn't be worried long term about walking five in six because he won the game then you're just wrong. That'd be like saying you don't have to worry about driving blackout drunk any given night because you've done it before without killing anyone.

Great post, except its Erik Bedard.

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Guest rochester

My two cents?

Walks hurt.

They drive me nuts...

But I have to bring this up....

Compare the two pitchers MLB history (and comparison if the younger (by 6 months) was to continue as is.

Age - 23

Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB

Yr WL% .333 3 6 14 14 0 0 0 0 58.0 84 63 60 14 34

SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

26 2 3 290 3 1 9.31 4.40 47 2.034

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Age – 24 (6 months older)

Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB

3 Yr WL% .533 8 7 31 28 0 0 1 0 158.3 154 97 90 13 100

SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

131 11 6 720 0 2 5.12 4.55 89 1.604

Projected for the 23 year old over the same amount of innings (Innings (24 yr old) 2.79)

Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR

2 Yr WL% .333 3 6 14 14 0 0 0 0 158.3 234 176 167 39

BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

95 73 6 8 809 3 3 9.31 4.40 47 2.034[/size]

Ok..hint:

One is getting slammed in this thread - the other is someone that is defended vehemently on the board..

Who would you rather have?

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Just thought I'd throw some more stats into the discussion.

What we have here comes courtesy of baseball-reference's wonderful P-I database.

What I've done is ask the database to show me the career stats for all the pitchers from 1961-2008 (expansion era) with at least 100 IP, at least 60% games started, and BB/9 of at least 4.0, then 4.5, then 5.0.

140 guys meet the 4.0+ BB/9 threshold; 67 meet the 4.5+ threshold, and 25 the 5.0+ threshold.

I've then examined the distribution of ERA+ for each of these three populations.

Here are the numbers I found.

[u]ERA+	4.0+	4.5+	5.0+	4.0+	4.5+	5.0+[/u]<61	1	1	1	1%	1%	4%61-70	7	6	3	5%	9%	12%71-80	16	8	3	11%	12%	12%81-90	52	27	[b]12[/b]	37%	40%	[b]48%[/b]91-100	43	19	5	31%	28%	20%101-110	7	2	1	5%	3%	4%111-120	10	4	0	7%	6%	0%121-130	3	0	0	2%	0%	0%[u]>130	1	0	0	1%	0%	0%[/u]Total	140	67	25	100%	100%	100%

As is immediately obvious, the large majority of the pitchers in all three categories had careers that were mediocre at best: ERA+ scores in the 71-100 range are found in ~80% of cases.

Only 1 of the 25 really wild guys managed to be a bit above average (Dennis Blair, 104 ERA+), and none were any better than a bit above average.

Naturally those figures improve a little bit with each incremental improvement in BB/9, but even at 4.0 BB/9, the odds of having an above-average career are still only ~15%.

FWIW, both Loewen and Cabrera currently reside in the bucket I've bolded above, corresponding to 5+ BB/9 and ERA+ of 81-90 -- pretty much right in the middle of the distribution.

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One can go back and see Loewen bashing by quite a few people here over the years.

Some people were disappointed by the JUCO move and the high signing bonus.

Others seemed pleased when Penn moved faster that it might reflect poorly on AL. We had posters claim that Os FO brass was excited about Olson and his work ethic and that Olson had passed AL. When JJ was Carolina League pitcher of the year, we heard the same thing.

Loewen may not evolve into a top 10 pitcher, but we are seeing a quality major league pitcher develop before our own eyes. Enjoy it.

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old 5 I am tired of bashing that goes on for all the O's players. Loewen, Cabrera, LH, Fahay, Millar. I just don't understand how anyone can bash the home team players.

Because fans want to see the team be productive and win... And they get frustrated when things don't work out.

It's easy to get upset over guys like Loewen and Cabrera, because of how much potential they have.

Guys like Fahey shouldn't even be in the bigs. I'll admit that's not his fault... The organization makes those decisions. But he's downright dreadful at the plate and most of us would rather never see him hit again.

Millar... eh, I haven't been reading enough this season to see him get torn up.

Long story short, people are just frustrated. The Orioles have been losing a long time, and players are easier to blame than whole organizations because they have names and faces we recognize. In the end, everyone's rooting for the same thing. Just in different ways.

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He did it yesterday didn't he? If the Orioles score the league average in runs yesterday he picks up a win. That is plenty good enough for me as it was Dave Trembley (the way Loewen pitched yesterday.)

Apprently some of you never saw (too young I guess, not your fault) Mike Torrez pitch when he won twenty games with the Orioles. He walked all kinds of guys, but his stuff was good enough he was hard to hit. Loewen (right now) reminds me a lot of him.

Surely someone in the next 5 pages said this, but:

Did it accure to you Old#5Fan how much the defense bailed out Loewen last night? At least two more of those walks should have score, had it not been for Markakis and Scott.

Elliot

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Code:

INNINGS PITCHED IP ERA BB/9 IP GS

1 Nolan Ryan 5159.2 3.18 4.65 744

2 Bobby Witt 2465 4.83 5.02 397

3 Shawn Estes 1634.2 4.71 4.62 273

4 Russ Ortiz 1519.2 4.39 4.66 245

5 Tom Griffin 1306.1 4.15 4.66 160

6 Juan Berenguer 1205.1 3.90 4.51 95

7 Jimmy Haynes 1200.2 5.37 4.50 203

8 Ryan Dempster 1151.2 4.83 4.70 162

9 Jason Bere 1111 5.14 5.07 203

10 Wayne Twitchell 1063.2 3.98 4.54 133

That's quite a drop off after Ryan...

Elliot

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What do the stats predict for Loewen Nostradamus? I will bet you $100 that you cannot predict any better than I what is going to happen regarding his career. In fact, I will go out on a limb and say he is going to be a top twenty major league pitcher for the next 10 years (once he shakes of the rust). What say you and your almighty stats, which are IMO utterly worthless at predicting anything. Put your money where your mouth is partner. Talk is cheap as Unitas used to say. Also, I don't want any of that probability, percentiles, and predictive factors mumbo jumbo, that a normal human being has zero use for or even cares to clutter their brain with. If you cannot go out on a limb like I did, don't bother.

As far as OleHippi and his stats, they have no direct relationship to Adam Loewen whatsover period. Utterly and completely worthless at predicting anything, just a measure of the past and mostly in different eras at that.

Funny... I asked you what the line on Luis Hernandez would be for this year and you declined to respond. Come on... you've been watching baseball for more than 40 years... by your own assessment you're an astute judge of talent. What his average gonna be??? His on base percentage??? His RBI's, etc..., etc...???

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Adam Loewen will win 47 major league games. He will pitch 855.1 innings, walk 522, strike out 677, and start 158 games. This year he'll go 7-12 with a 5.33, pitch 152 innings, walking 88 and striking out 119. Next year he'll battle a few nagging injuries and only pitch 87 innings. He'll have a strained hip flexor in spring training of 2010, and only pitch 109 innings to a 4.98 that year. In 2011 he'll have his best major league season, throwing 188.1 innings, winning 14 games, losing 11, with an ERA of 4.11. In 2012 he's going to be traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for three players who haven't been drafted yet and are still in high school.

With my right hand on a copy of the original Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, I swear I will stand by that as the gospel truth right up until the moment I'm proven wrong.

That is just hilarious! Well done Drungo... Well done!!! :D

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