I said in another comment somewhere, that Mike doesn’t care whether we win 45 or 50 games, but he certainly does care if we win 70. There was a little bit of hyperbole in that comment, but I just wonder if maybe it’s really accurate.
The equivalent of 70 wins would be ~26, Would probably leave us out of any playoff consideration, but would mess up our draft order for next year, conceivably leaving us out of the single digit draft picks.
At the moment, I think the last thing that Elias wants is on field success.
I think he would much rather we win 15 games than 25. So I think that if we start to do well he’s going to trade off our successful players, less with a view to maximizing their trade value than to getting them off the team because they’re playing too well.
There are several players on this team who could conceivably participate in our next contender, but nobody who’s a definite, so he wouldn’t be damaging the future by, for instance, trading Alberto or Ruiz, and he wouldn’t care as much about the return.
My question for the crowd is whether you think this is accurate, or if he would actually enjoy a genuine and unexpected successful won-loss record, Even if it meant a less desirable first round pick next year?
Yes ........ so let's extrapolate, and assert that 5 sweeps in like winning 15 games, and that 3 sweeps (going the other way) is like losing 9 games.
So the Orioles are essentially 15-9 overall, 40% into this pandemic-shortened season ........ fun with numbers, albeit completely divorced from reality.
Elias has said he wants to establish something like the Tampa model where you are playing competitive baseball while also maintaining a constant influx of new talent. I don't think you have to pick #1 to do that. In fact he should relish the thought of finding value with lower picks.
It is very early, but I think our very early good start reflects a MLB team that is trying to win every game and a front office that is supporting that team at least through the analytics group. It is difficult to imagine any positive results where we actually escape the worst five teams in the league, especially after losing Villar and Mancini.
We do have some guys on the roster with upside and it is Ruiz and Alberto with the early start and, as the article mentions, Iglesias has not been a positive hitter since 2013 - lol!
From a 10,000 foot view, I have to think positive early kudos should go to our analytics group. The strong K rates from a bunch of re-tread SPs is an indication to me that our FO/analytics group is capable of coaching up some guys.
Let's feast on some Marlins soon!
I was checking the future radar earlier and it looked like 90% of the storm would be out to sea by now (3 pm) heading for the North Atlantic. Checked the hourly for Balmer. Tonight should be fine, everpresent chance of afternoon thunderstorms tomorow.
Well that’s true, but you’re explaining it wrong. A bad contract cost money. A bad trade costs prospects. A draft pick that doesn’t work only means you wasted the draft pick.The difference is that with the first two you are subtracting concrete assets that you already have, and with a bad draft pick, you are only losing something that you hoped to get.
The difference is obvious. And yes, pitching prospects have a high attrition rate.
That’s why you acquire lots of them, which is what Mike is doing right now. It is also why you should Draft a lot of them, and I’m not the only person who is disappointed that he is not.