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Frobby

Ten days of WAR

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It's kind of fascinating to look at WAR in a ten-game bite. The O's leadership so far (position players):

Machado 1.0

Trumbo 0.6

Hardy 0.5

Schoop 0.5

Davis 0.4

Reimold 0.3

I think this really points up how the season has ups and downs. A great player might be worth 5-7 WAR in a season, which is about 0.3-0.4 every 10 games. But the path there looks more like a stock market chart than it does like a straight line.

Of course, maybe Manny really will be worth 16 WAR this season. :D

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So according to this' date=' we would have won 3.3 more games than replacements? So replacements would have been 5-5 or 4-6? Is this the theory behind WAR?[/quote']

I forget the exact number but I think it's calibrated such that a team of replacement-level players would win 50 games or so.

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In fWAR, the Orioles are #2 for position players at 3.4, behind only the Cardinals at 3.6. Third place Rockies are only 2.5. We're also 7th in pitching at 1.7.

The Orioles are hitting .294/.357/.540 as a team, good for a 154 wRC+. That's simply outrageous.

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It's kind of fascinating to look at WAR in a ten-game bite. The O's leadership so far (position players):

Machado 1.0 [0.1]

Trumbo 0.6 [-0.2]

Hardy 0.5 [0.4]

Schoop 0.5 [-0.4]

Davis 0.4 [0.2]

Reimold 0.3 [-0.1]

I think this really points up how the season has ups and downs. A great player might be worth 5-7 WAR in a season, which is about 0.3-0.4 every 10 games. But the path there looks more like a stock market chart than it does like a straight line.

WAR for the second 10 games in brackets above, kind of proving the point.

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30 games:

Machado 2.3 (1.0, 0.1, 1.2)

Hardy 0.8 (0.5, 0.4, -0.1)

Reimold 0.8 (0.3, -0.1, 0.6)

Trumbo 0.7 (0.6, -0.2, 0.3)

Davis 0.5 (0.4, 0.2, -0.1)

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Kind of amazing how easy it is to be worse than a AAA player for ten days.

And yet, people are jumping to conclusions about players after 10 or so games all the time around here.

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And yet, people are jumping to conclusions about players after 10 or so games all the time around here.

I thought my suggestion to build a Rickard statue and execute Pedro Alverez in front of it was fairly level headed.

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I thought my suggestion to build a Rickard statue and execute Pedro Alverez in front of it was fairly level headed.

But what about the back of their baseball cards?

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So according to this' date=' we would have won 3.3 more games than replacements? So replacements would have been 5-5 or 4-6? Is this the theory behind WAR?[/quote']

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Calculating WAR, especially for position players, is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed version with the precise steps and formulas, head to our page on Position Player WAR or Pitcher WAR. The short answer, though, is as follows:

● Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

● Pitchers – While position player WAR is based on Batting Runs and Fielding Runs, pitching WAR uses FIP (with infield fly balls), adjusted for park, and scaled to how many innings the pitcher threw. FIP is translated into runs, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins. This is a slightly more complicated process than for position players and there will be a new post detailing exactly how we do this in the next week or so (stay tuned!)

WAR is available in two places: FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (rWAR or bWAR). Both statistics use the same framework and calculate replacement level the same, but use different methods for estimating offensive, defensive, and pitching value, so their results differ in some cases. Additionally, Baseball-Prospectus calculates WARP, which is the same idea by a different name. All of the information provided on these pages refers to fWAR, unless otherwise specified.

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30 games:

Machado 2.3 (1.0, 0.1, 1.2)

31 games: Machado 2.6. So, a homer, 2 singles and 2 walks in 5 PA will earn you about 0.3 WAR in a single game, if you are a SS and don't mess up in the field. I wonder what his 2-homer game on Sunday was worth?

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