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FanSince88

If we miss the playoffs this year, trade Manny and sign Schoop

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* If we can't make the playoffs this year with Manny Machado and one of the best lineups in all of baseball surrounding him, do we seriously have a realistic chance of doing it next year or in 2018? With an aging Jones/Wieters/Hardy, probably-not-returning-and-also-aging Trumbo, still-mostly-unproven Bundy, inconsistent Gausman, mediocre-to-poor backend rotation, and FO that refuses to pay for quality SP FA?

* If we aren't going to get to the playoffs with Manny before 2018, what's the point of keeping him here until then?

* If there's little point in keeping Manny around until 2018, why not trade him now to restock our barren prospect pool.

* If we really want to massively overpay for Manny in 2018 when he's a free agent, if the surrounding talent is looking brighter, then we can still do that.

* We can probably sign Schoop right now for at most half and probably a third of what it would cost to sign Manny in 2018; and I predict he will be worth no less than 75% of Manny's value over the course of his career.

* So if we miss the playoffs in 2016, let's make Schoop the core of our franchise, and leverage Manny while he still has multiple years left to fill in our gaping current or future talent gaps at starting pitcher, SS/3B (one of which we'd need anyway after Hardy leaves even if we kept Manny), and outfield.

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That would make sense for a small market team like Oakland or Tampa. It would be laughable for a big market team like LA or Boston.

As for a team in the middle... I'm not sure.

If we are going to trade Manny, I'd like to target an ace like Sale (the White Sox might be big sellers this winter).

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I don't trust DD to get an appropriate return for Manny, notwithstanding the seemingly desperate need to restock the organizational talent pool.

Also, trading Machado for someone like Sale would be a waste, IMO. The O's are thin on talent in too many places to burn most of Manny's trade value on one person. And the O's, especially minus Manny, are more than one pitcher away from contending for a WS title.

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* If we can't make the playoffs this year with Manny Machado and one of the best lineups in all of baseball surrounding him, do we seriously have a realistic chance of doing it next year or in 2018? With an aging Jones/Wieters/Hardy, probably-not-returning-and-also-aging Trumbo, still-mostly-unproven Bundy, inconsistent Gausman, mediocre-to-poor backend rotation, and FO that refuses to pay for quality SP FA?

* If we aren't going to get to the playoffs with Manny before 2018, what's the point of keeping him here until then?

* If there's little point in keeping Manny around until 2018, why not trade him now to restock our barren prospect pool.

* If we really want to massively overpay for Manny in 2018 when he's a free agent, if the surrounding talent is looking brighter, then we can still do that.

* We can probably sign Schoop right now for at most half and probably a third of what it would cost to sign Manny in 2018; and I predict he will be worth no less than 75% of Manny's value over the course of his career.

* So if we miss the playoffs in 2016, let's make Schoop the core of our franchise, and leverage Manny while he still has multiple years left to fill in our gaping current or future talent gaps at starting pitcher, SS/3B (one of which we'd need anyway after Hardy leaves even if we kept Manny), and outfield.

Angelos would not allow that. Remember he is the one that pulls the strings. I don't think he would ever allow a rebuild.

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That would make sense for a small market team like Oakland or Tampa. It would be laughable for a big market team like LA or Boston.

As for a team in the middle... I'm not sure.

If we are going to trade Manny, I'd like to target an ace like Sale (the White Sox might be big sellers this winter).

Face it. Small market.

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I don't see the argument that this team's window ends after this year. I'm more optimistic about next year than this year. With Bundy in the rotation and an improved Gausman, our SP should be better.

There will be some holes, but I think this team will yet again be looking at an 80-something base of wins next year. And if you're an 80-something win team by talent, you're a contender and you might wind up winning more than that and going to the playoffs.

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I don't see the argument that this team's window ends after this year. I'm more optimistic about next year than this year. With Bundy in the rotation and an improved Gausman, our SP should be better.

There will be some holes, but I think this team will yet again be looking at an 80-something base of wins next year. And if you're an 80-something win team by talent, you're a contender and you might wind up winning more than that and going to the playoffs.

Mark Trumbo is having the year of his life offensively. Raise your hand if you think we resign him, or if so, if he replicates his performance this year next season. Raise your hand if JJ Hardy has his best offensive year since 2013 and stays healthy all year next season.

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My fear is the negotiations drag on through his walk year and we lose all value and then the inevitable happens anyway....NYY, NYM, LAD, BOS, MIA (knowing the Orioles, prolly NYY).

This pond is just too small for that fish. "Thanks for the two operations Dan, see you at the Hall in '31."

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We can probably sign Schoop right now for at most half and probably a third of what it would cost to sign Manny in 2018; and I predict he will be worth no less than 75% of Manny's value over the course of his career.

What in the world would make you say that? Schoop is 24 years old and has been worth 5.0 rWAR so far in his career. Manny was worth 6.7 rWAR in his first full season at age 20.

I don't say that to denigrate Schoop, who is a fine player who hopefully will continue to get better. But he's not in the same universe as Manny. He could be signed for a lot less, because he's worth a lot less.

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