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Frobby

If we can win the series in Boston, I like our chances for a division title

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538, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs all project Boston to take the AL East with 91 wins. That means the Orioles will have to go 14-7 the rest of the way to finish tied with Boston for first place in the AL East. Winning 2/3 at Boston really won't mean much of anything if the Orioles fail to follow it up by beating them 3/4 next week at home. Plus they'll probably have to take either 2/3 in Toronto or New York during the last week of the season. It's far from impossible but it's still a pretty tall order.

Didn't all those smart guys project the Orioles to be playing out the string right now too?

Analytics are great. I really dig them. But they don't predict the future. I know, I know, they offer a good indication of what's reasonable to expect... except when it doesn't happen.

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Honestly if we make the playoffs I'll be more than happy. Boston's offense is near unstoppable.

Roy would be proud of this pronouncement! :rolleyestf:

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Dang Frobby, I am not even thinking about the division right now. The Yankees are right on our tails, and the Tigers aren't dead yet. Even SEA or HOU could still get hot. I feel good right now about getting one of the wild cards, but it's not a slam dunk at all. Lose this series and we might not make the playoffs! As you said on the other thread, this is going to be a crazy ride right down to the end.

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If we win 14 of the final 20 games, I will like our chances of winning the division.

.What would 12-8 get us? That would be .600 baseball (we are currently at .549). 14-6 might be too much to ask.

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Dang Frobby, I am not even thinking about the division right now. The Yankees are right on our tails, and the Tigers aren't dead yet. Even SEA or HOU could still get hot. I feel good right now about getting one of the wild cards, but it's not a slam dunk at all.

I decided I would rather be thinking on the aggressive side rather than on the defensive side. Yes, there are a million ways that some team could catch us from behind, but right now we are tied for first wild card position and have the same distance between us and the division leader as there is between us and the next closest team in the wild card race. So think positive! I remember we were in a similar position in 2012 and Buck kept the team focused on catching the Yankees rather than worrying about the teams chasing them for the WC spot. I like that attitude.

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.What would 12-8 get us? That would be .600 baseball (we are currently at .549). 14-6 might be too much to ask.

It would depend a little on who we beat to get the 12 wins. Beat Boston 5 of 7 and take 2 of 3 from both Toronto and New York, and 12 might get us the division title. I'd certainly feel very good about the wild card with 12 wins no matter who we beat.

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Dang Frobby, I am not even thinking about the division right now. The Yankees are right on our tails, and the Tigers aren't dead yet. Even SEA or HOU could still get hot. I feel good right now about getting one of the wild cards, but it's not a slam dunk at all. Lose this series and we might not make the playoffs! As you said on the other thread, this is going to be a crazy ride right down to the end.

Focus on the division first because 7 of the next 11 are against the division leader.

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Price, Pomeranz, and Porcello have been pitching really well over the last month. Yes, it would be great news if the O's could take 2 of 3, but I think the odds are long.

They also have also only had two series against contenders dating back to August 22, and that is if you really want to include the Royals, who were only a handful of games over 500 when they played them. They have gotten fat off the soft spot of their schedule - but they have built momentum, They had to burn some pitchers yesterday let's see how that plays out today. Even then they only went 11-8 Their current situation at the top has more to do with the Orioles' stumbling through July and August and Toronto's recent downturn.

Edited by SilentJames

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Very tough series coming up, but if we somehow come away with 2 out of 3, I like our chances of winning the division title. We'd be one game down with 17 to play, including 7 home games against bad teams and 4 home games with the Sox. Boston has only three remaining games against sub-.500 teams, and that's a road series with Tampa. Toronto has 7 games against losing teams remaining, but four are on the road in Anaheim.

Don't want to get too far ahead of myself, let's find a way to win this series first!

(And Roy, I am in no mood to hear any doom and gloom about how the Red Sox are some invincible super-team that has us hopelessly outmatched. Our players don't shrink from a challenge and they'll be ready to do battle.)

If they can win 2 of 3 that would be great.

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