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Frobby

Ranking the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st Century

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I'm not going to comment in detail on the players, just list them in order of rWAR (not the order I'd rank them).

Dustin Pedroia, 2:24 2004, 50.7 rWAR

Jon Lester, 2:16 2002, 40.2 rWAR

Kevin Youkilis, 8:17 2001, 32.3 rWAR

Jacoby Ellsbury, 1:23 2005, 29.1 rWAR (FA comp)

Jonathan Papelbon, 4:17 2003, 24.0 rWAR

Anthony Rizzo, 6:20 2007, 21.7 rWAR

Josh Reddick, 17:7 2006, 18.6 rWAR

Mookie Betts, 5:21 2011, 17.6 rWAR

Clay Buchholz, 1:42 2005, 15.1 rWAR (FA comp)

Freddy Sanchez, 11:22 2000, 15.8 rWAR

David Murphy, 1:17 2003, 10.3 rWAR

Justin Masterson, 2:27 2006, 9.3 rWAR

Jed Lowrie, 1:45 2005, 8.6 rWAR (FA comp)

Kelly Shoppach, 2:4 2001, 8.1 rWAR (FA comp)

Jackie Bradley Jr., 1:40 2011, 8.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Brandon Moss, 8:16 2002, 5.8 rWAR

Daniel Bard, 1:28 2006, 4.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Manny Delcarmen, 2:22 2000, 3.9 rWAR

Alex Wilson, 2:28 2009, 3.8 rWAR

Travis Shaw, 9:21 2011, 3.4 rWAR

Matt Murton; 1:32 2003, 3.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Cla Meredith, 6:24 2004, 3.1 rWAR

Hunter Strickland, 18:20 2007, 2.8 rWAR

Ryan Pressly, 11:20 2007, 2.6 rWAR

Kason Gabbard, 29:22 2000, 1.8 rWAR

They have 25 guys over 1.0 rWAR, to our 19. Part of that is the 7 FA comp picks on their list, but they got a great yield on those comp picks.

We have six players over 10 rWAR, they have 11. We have two guys over 20 rWAR, they have six. We have nobody over 30 rWAR -- they have three, including a 50+ and a 40+.

Pretty sickening.

"Pretty sickening" may be the understatement of the 21st century!

:vader:

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Boston has always done an excellent job developing their players, I'm pretty damn sure they are the best in that regard among all the AL East teams. Hell they would probably crack top 5 in the league easily.

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How about you go look up where Hader was pitching.

It might tell you something.

Then you can think about where Gunkel is pitching.

You might rethink how important WHIP and ERA are in this comparison.

Minor league park factors are in.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20161115&content_id=208823408&fext=.jsp&vkey=toolshed&sid=milb

Hader was pitching in Colorado Springs, 1.554 Runs. Gunkel was pitching in Norfolk, .948 Runs.

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Boston has always done an excellent job developing their players, I'm pretty damn sure they are the best in that regard among all the AL East teams. Hell they would probably crack top 5 in the league easily.

Yeah. Yankees system was good until Steinbrenner traded everything. Imagine if the Yankees hadn't traded everyone to "win that year". They would still be amazing.

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Minor league park factors are in.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20161115&content_id=208823408&fext=.jsp&vkey=toolshed&sid=milb

Hader was pitching in Colorado Springs, 1.554 Runs. Gunkel was pitching in Norfolk, .948 Runs.

You'd be better off quoting run context, since Colorado Springs was 1.544 x the PCL's 4.9 runs/game. Or 7.56 runs/team/game if I'm grasping this fully. While Norfolk is .948 x 4.0 or 3.79 runs/team/game. Basically a run in Norfolk is worth two in Colorado. Gunkel was paying with pounds sterling, Hader with lira.

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The Blue Jays

Again, just listed here by rWAR, not how I would rank them.

Aaron Hill, 1:13 2003, 24.7 rWAR

Sean Marcum, 3:13 2003, 13.4 rWAR

Adam Lind, 3:12 2004, 11.1 rWAR (FA comp)

Ricky Romero, 1:6 2005, 9.7 rWAR

Kevin Pillar, 32:18 2011, 9.3 rWAR

Noah Syndergaard, 1:38 2010, 8.5 rWAR (FA comp)

Yan Gomes, 10:19 2009, 7.9 rWAR

Aaron Sanchez, 1:34 2010, 7.8 rWAR (FA comp)

Casey Janssen, 4:16 2004, 7.6 rWAR

Brett Cecil, 1:38 2007, 6.8 rWAR (FA comp)

Ryan Roberts, 18:13 2003, 5.7 rWAR

Jake Marisnik, 3:24 2009, 5.2 rWAR (FA comp)

Marcus Stroman, 1:22 2012, 4.8 rWAR

Gabe Gross, 1:15 2001, 4.7 rWAR

Travis Snider, 1:14 2006, 4.6 rWAR

Kendall Graveman, 8:9 2013, 4.5 rWAR

Sam Dyson, 4:11 2010, 4.5 rWAR

Jesse Litsch, 24:16 2004, 3.9 rWAR

Anthony DiSciafini, 6:18 2011 3.9 rWAR

Ryan Goins, 4:19 2009, 3.7 rWAR

Dave Bush, 2:14 2002, 3.5 rWAR

Mark Rzepcynski, 5:21 2007, 3.2 rWAR

Aaron Loup 9:19 2009, 3.2 rWAR

J.P. Arencibia. 1:21 2007, 2.7 rWAR

Brandon League, 2:15 2001, 2.6 rWAR

Dustin McGowan, 1:33 2000, 2.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Daniel Norris, 2:14 2011, 1.9 rWAR (FA comp)

Ryan Schrimpf, 5:19 2009, 1.8 rWAR

Vinnie Chulk, 12:18 2000, 1.4 rWAR

Chad Jenkins, 1:20 2009, 1.4 rWAR

I think you'd have to say that the Jays have been really good at picking solid lunch-pail contributors. 29 players over 1.0 rWAR, but so far nobody who has accumulated 25+ rWAR and only one guy over 15 rWAR. Part of that is that the Jays have almost never had a top 10 pick. Considering their draft position, I'd say they've done very well, and have taken good advantage of comp picks.

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The Rays

Evan Longoria, 1:3 2006, 46.4 rWAR

David Price, 1:1 2007, 31.9 rWAR

James Shields, 16:6 2000, 28.0 rWAR

Kevin Kiermaier, 31:16 2010, 16.4 rWAR

B.J. Upton, 1:2 2002, 16.2 rWAR

Desomond Jennings, 10:3 2006, 13.2 rWAR

Jason Hammel, 10:2 2002, 12.8 rWAR

John Jaso, 12:1 2003, 10.9 rWAR

Jeremy Hellickson, 4:8 2005, 10.3 rWAR

Rocco Baldelli, 1:6 2000, 10.2 rWAR

Wade Davis, 3:3 2004, 9.8 rWAR

Alex Cobb, 4:3 2006, 8.5 rWAR

Steven Vogt, 12:1 2007, 6.9 rWAR

Jake McGee, 5:4 2004, 6.4 rWAR

Matt Moore, 8:1 2007, 6.1 rWAR

Jeff Niemann, 4:4 2004, 4.1 rWAR

Jonny Gomes, 8:3 2001, 3.2 rWAR

Delmon Young, 1:1 2003, 2.5 rWAR

Derek Dietrich, 2:29 2010, 2.4 rWAR (FA comp)

Joey Gathright, 32:3 2001, 2.2 rWAR

Chad Gaudin, 34:3 2001, 2.2 rWAR

Elijah Dukes, 3:2 2002, 1.9 rWAR

Jesse Hahn, 6:16 2010, 1.8 rWAR

Andrew Toles, 3:24 2012, 1.4 rWAR

Tim Beckham, 1:1 2008, 1.3 rWAR

Solid performance, but noticeably down since 2007. Since then, they've drafted only five players who have accumulated 1.0 rWAR or more.

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And now, the Yankees

Brett Gardner, 3:29 2005, 30.3 rWAR

Austin Jackson, 8:29 2005, 22.2 rWAR

Ian Kennedy, 1:21 2006, 14.5 rWAR (FA comp)

David Robertson, 17:28 2006, 12.7 rWAR

Tyler Clippard, 9:27 2003, 12.6 rWAR

Phil Hughes, 1:23 2004, 12.1 rWAR (FA comp)

Mark Melancon, 9:28 2006, 9.9 rWAR

Dellin Betances, 8:28 2006, 8.3 rWAR

Joba Chamberlain, 1:41 2006, 8.0 rWAR

David Phelps, 14:28 2007, 4.8 rWAR

Adam Warren, 4:28 2008, 4.5 rWAR

Jeff Keustens, 19;27 2003, 3.2 rWAR

George Kontis, 5:28 2006, 3.0 rWAR

Mike Dunn, 33:28 2004, 3.0 rWAR

Phil Coke, 26:24 2002, 2.1 rWAR

Zach McAllister, 3:28 2006, 1.8 rWAR

The Yankees had an excellent run of drafting from 2003-06, but things have really dried up since then, and they haven't drafted a player who has accumulated 1+ rWAR since 2008.   That's quite a drought.   Needless to say, they've given up a number of high picks to sign various free agents.   It's no coincidence that their drought started in 2009, considering that in the prior offseason, they signed Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett.

 

 

 

Edited by Frobby

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The Not-So-Lovely Totals

Red Sox 344.2 rWAR (1 50+, 1 40+, 1 30+, 3 20+, 5 10+, 5 5+, 9 1+)

Rays 242.2 rWAR (0 50+, 1 40+, 1 30+, 1 20+, 7 10+, 5 5+, 10 1+)

Blue Jays 176.0 rWAR (0 50+, 0 40+, 0 30+, 1 20+, 1 10+, 9 5+, 18 1+)

Yankees 153.0 rWAR (0 50+, 0 40+, 1 30+, 1 20+, 4 10+, 3 5+, 7 1+)

Orioles 146.6 rWAR (0 50+, 0 40+, 0 30+, 2 20+, 4 10+, 1 5+, 12 1+)

 

On its face, that's a terrible showing by the Orioles.   Upon closer examination, we have done much better since 2010:

Orioles 36.1

Jays 34.0

Red Sox 29.0

Jays 22.0

Yankees 0.0

Thank you, Manny.

 

Edited by Frobby
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I'm updating this list I put together last year.    First the updated list, then some comments:

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 27.9 rWAR

2. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 21.7 rWAR

3. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 29.8 rWAR

4. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 11.3 rWAR

5. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 15.7 rWAR

6. Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 6.0 rWAR

7. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 8.0 rWAR

8. Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 4.4 rWAR

9. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 9.2 rWAR

10. Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 4.9 rWAR

11. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 5.0 rWAR

12. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.1 rWAR

13.  Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 2.5 rWAR

14. John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

15. Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 3.2 rWAR

16. Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.2 rWAR

17. Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.5 rWAR

18. Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.2 rWAR

19. Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.5 rWAR

20. Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.7 rWAR

 

I highlighted four players who either moved up or are new to the list.     Zach Davies leapfrogged Gausman, Bundy and Jim Johnson to move up to 6th place.   I still think Bundy and Gausman will have better overall careers, but when you consider draft position, Davies was a truly outstanding pick (even considering that he was paid an overslot bonus).    Caleb Joseph passed Maine, Bergesen, Ray and Fontenot after a pretty strong 2017 took away the stench of his 2016 offensive debacle.    Right behind him and new to the list is Trey Mancini, who could move up several more spots if 2018 resembles 2017; for now I'm remembering that early promise doesn't always gel into long-term results (see Matusz, Reimold).   And finally, Donnie Hart debuts at no. 19, mostly based on the fact that he was a very low draft pick and yet has produced some results.   But he may slip back off this list if he fades into obscurity next season.

Based on my rule that I only list guys who have produced 1.0 rWAR or more at the major league level, Tyler Wilson has slipped off the list (he fell from 1.0 to 0.8 rWAR).  

Hopefully this time next year I'll be adding Hays and Sisco, and maybe others.

 

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I liked David Hernandez and his dad, does his dad still come on here any more?  We drafted Russell Wilson in the 42nd round in 2007.  That would have been a great value for us if he signed. 

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4 hours ago, sevastras said:

  We drafted Russell Wilson in the 42nd round in 2007.  That would have been a great value for us if he signed. 

There is a 39 page thread debating whether Pat Connaughton made the right decision by playing basketball instead of baseball.  I don't think even the Orioleshangout could debate that Russell Wilson made the right decision by choosing football over baseball.

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