Heading into the final week before the trade deadline, it will be interesting to see what Elias will do. You know he is having conversations, a lot of those will come out in the media after the deadline.
Here are the names I would think he would be fielding and making calls on that are most likely to get traded.
Trey Mancini - Defense seems to hold his market up a bit. It's good to see him climbing over .800 OPS. Probably would return a organizational Top 10 and couple "intriguing" guys. HR Derby along with tonight's dinger show the power is real. Probably takes more walks on a more talented team.
Tanner Scott- Is almost like a much more gifted and talented version of George Sherrill. Best stuff of our relievers. I would be interested to know if there is a team out there looking at him like "we can tweak and fix this guy and make him a Boss" and wants to be aggressive on him. A top 30 guy of varying range and an "intriguing" prospect or 2 is probably your return for Scott and the next 2.
Paul Fry - FIP says he has been killing it. ERA is starting to creep back down. Lots of K's and he has a track record that has been fairly impressive and trending up. Being LHP is still important too.
Cole Sulser - The player control would seem to be an attractive incentive. Especially for smaller market teams trying to compete that can handle the cost and arbitration of his contract for a few more years. That may also be a reason we keep him if Elias isn't prejudice to age.
If all four are traded, its a return of probably 6 to 10 new players into the system. So in total you are probably looking at any where from 0-10 new prospects to talk about next Sunday.
That's probably it at this point. I just don't see Means, Mullins, and Santander achieving peak value yet, and with the control they have, I see Elias going another year to see if they are more competitive before deciding to try and trade them or keep them for the first run at the playoffs. Next year to me would still be ahead of schedule; I have felt that in 2023, when we are finally free of the Davis contract, we might be able to make a FA splash or two to go with the youth movement. It comes next year, awesome, it would feel like 2012 again.
Long, complicated analysis by a guy I know, analyzing shift strategy. Read the details if you have the fortitude, or scroll towards the end for these conclusions:
- Shifting against LHB can be effective, shifting against RHB is generally a waste of time.
- From 2018 to 2021, the Orioles were the third best team in the majors in shifts, roughly +2 wins were 162 games.
- Ib 2021, the O’s have been 6th best at shifting, again at about +2 wins per 162 game