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Frobby

Ranking the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st Century

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Eduardo Rodriguez was signed rather than drafted, so he doesn’t literally fit Frobby’s list. However the spirit of this thread (uncovering young talent) does include ERod. Probably in the top ten. Schoop as well. 

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Here's my 2020 update to the list of top Orioles draft picks in the 21str Century.    BB-ref changed their calculations for rWAR slightly, so  even some  of the retired players saw slight changes in their numbers.    I decided to be very conservative in changing the order of last year's list, so the only player I moved up was Mike Yastrzemski, moving from no. 17 to  no. 14.   I easily could have moved him higher than that, considering he was a 14th round pick.     Another good year for him in 2021 could put him in the top 10.   

The only new player reaching 1.0 and joining the list is Austin Hays, who debuts at no. 27 but I expect he will be a fast riser.    Hopefully there will be several new additions after the 2021 season.

It's interesting to note that the entire top 10  were still active as of 2020,  but none of them appeared in an Orioles uniform this season (Trey Mancini is no. 9 but didn't play; the other  9 all played for other teams).     Of the 27 on the list, only Mancini (9), Means (13) and Hays (27)  are currently on our roster.

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 39.5 rWAR

2. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 25.9 rWAR

3. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 33.8 rWAR

4. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 14.5 rWAR

5. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 18.2 rWAR

6.  Josh Hader, 19:4 pick 2012, 7.1 rWAR

7.  Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 9.7 rWAR

8.  Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 11.2 rWAR

9.  Trey Mancini, 8:23 pick 2013, 6.6 rWAR

10.  Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 8.8 rWAR

11. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 8.1 rWAR

12.  Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 6.9 rWAR

13.  John Means, 11:16 pick 2014, 5.7 rWAR

14.  Mike Yastrzemski, 14:23 pick 2013, 5.2 rWAR

15. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.5 rWAR

16. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 4.6 rWAR

17.  John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR

18.  Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 2.9 rWAR

19.  Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.1 rWAR

20.  Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.3 rWAR

21.  Christian Walker, 4:4 pick 2012, 3.1 rWAR

22.  Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.8 rWAR

23.  Donnie Hart, 27:23 pick 2013, 1.8 rWAR

24.  Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.1 rWAR

25.  Oliver Drake, 43:4 pick 2008, 1.1 rWAR

26.  Parker Bridwell, 9:3 pick 2010, 1.3 rWAR

27.  Austin Hays, 3:14 pick 2016, 1.0 rWAR

Total: 27 players, 254.9 rWAR

2000-09: 15 players, 153.9 rWAR

2009-20: 12 players, 101.0 rWAR

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God bless Caleb Joseph.

meanwhile. Zach Davies....grrr...9.7 WAR.

Think we coulda’ used that?

please don’t share Parra’s Orioles WAR...that just twists the knife.

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Now here's the Red Sox:

 

Dustin Pedroia, 2:24 2004, 51.6 rWAR

Mookie Betts, 5:21 2011, 45.2 rWAR

Jon Lester, 2:16 2002, 44.6 rWAR

Anthony Rizzo, 6:20 2007, 34.3 rWAR

Kevin Youkilis, 8:17 2001, 32.4 rWAR

Jacoby Ellsbury, 1:23 2005, 31.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Josh Reddick, 17:7 2006, 24.7 rWAR

Jonathan Papelbon, 4:17 2003, 23.3 rWAR

Jackie Bradley Jr., 1:40 2011, 17.8 rWAR (FA comp)

Jed Lowrie, 1:45 2005, 17.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Clay Buchholz, 1:42 2005, 16.7 rWAR (FA comp)

Freddy Sanchez, 11:22 2000, 15.9 rWAR

Justin Masterson, 2:27 2006, 10.1 rWAR

David Murphy, 1:17 2003, 9.9 rWAR

Andrew Benintendi , 1:7 2015, 9.7 rWAR

Travis Shaw, 9:21 2011, 9.4 rWAR

Kelly Shoppach, 2:4 2001, 8.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Alex Wilson, 2:28 2009, 5.1 rWAR

Brandon Moss, 8:16 2002, 5.0 rWAR

Daniel Bard, 1:28 2006, 5.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Manny Delcarmen, 2:22 2000, 3.8 rWAR

Christian Vazquez 9:30 2008, 3.6 rWAR

Matt Murton; 1:32 2003, 3.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Brandon Workman 2:7 2010, 3.1 rWAR  

Cla Meredith, 6:24 2004, 2.9 rWAR

Hunter Strickland, 18:20 2007, 3.8 rWAR

Ryan Pressly, 11:20 2007, 7.0 rWAR

Kristopher Negron 7:27 2006, 1.8 rWAR

Kason Gabbard, 29:22 2000, 1.8 rWAR

J.B. Wendelken, 13:23 2012, 1.4 rWAR

Brian Johnson, 1s:31 2012, 1.3 rWAR

Tanner Houck, 1:24 2017, 1.3 rWAR

Noe Ramirez, 3:21 2011, 1.3 rWAR

Mauricio Dubron 26:7 2013, 1.2 rWAR

Travis Lakins, 6:6 2015, 1.2 rWAR

Ty Buttrey, 4:23 2012, 1.1 rWAR

Jeremy Hazelbacher, 27:4 2009, 1.1 rWAR

 

Total: 37 players, 458.8 rWAR

2000-09: 25 players, 364.8 rWAR

2009-20: 12 players, 94.0 rWAR

 

They crushed us in the 2000-09 period.    We have a slight edge on them in 2010-20 to date. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Now here's the Red Sox:

 

Dustin Pedroia, 2:24 2004, 51.6 rWAR

Mookie Betts, 5:21 2011, 45.2 rWAR

Jon Lester, 2:16 2002, 44.6 rWAR

Anthony Rizzo, 6:20 2007, 34.3 rWAR

Kevin Youkilis, 8:17 2001, 32.4 rWAR

Jacoby Ellsbury, 1:23 2005, 31.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Josh Reddick, 17:7 2006, 24.7 rWAR

Jonathan Papelbon, 4:17 2003, 23.3 rWAR

Jackie Bradley Jr., 1:40 2011, 17.8 rWAR (FA comp)

Jed Lowrie, 1:45 2005, 17.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Clay Buchholz, 1:42 2005, 16.7 rWAR (FA comp)

Freddy Sanchez, 11:22 2000, 15.9 rWAR

Justin Masterson, 2:27 2006, 10.1 rWAR

David Murphy, 1:17 2003, 9.9 rWAR

Andrew Benintendi , 1:7 2015, 9.7 rWAR

Travis Shaw, 9:21 2011, 9.4 rWAR

Kelly Shoppach, 2:4 2001, 8.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Alex Wilson, 2:28 2009, 5.1 rWAR

Brandon Moss, 8:16 2002, 5.0 rWAR

Daniel Bard, 1:28 2006, 5.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Manny Delcarmen, 2:22 2000, 3.8 rWAR

Christian Vazquez 9:30 2008, 3.6 rWAR

Matt Murton; 1:32 2003, 3.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Brandon Workman 2:7 2010, 3.1 rWAR  

Cla Meredith, 6:24 2004, 2.9 rWAR

Hunter Strickland, 18:20 2007, 3.8 rWAR

Ryan Pressly, 11:20 2007, 7.0 rWAR

Kristopher Negron 7:27 2006, 1.8 rWAR

Kason Gabbard, 29:22 2000, 1.8 rWAR

J.B. Wendelken, 13:23 2012, 1.4 rWAR

Brian Johnson, 1s:31 2012, 1.3 rWAR

Tanner Houck, 1:24 2017, 1.3 rWAR

Noe Ramirez, 3:21 2011, 1.3 rWAR

Mauricio Dubron 26:7 2013, 1.2 rWAR

Travis Lakins, 6:6 2015, 1.2 rWAR

Ty Buttrey, 4:23 2012, 1.1 rWAR

Jeremy Hazelbacher, 27:4 2009, 1.1 rWAR

 

Total: 37 players, 458.8 rWAR

2000-09: 25 players, 364.8 rWAR

2009-20: 12 players, 94.0 rWAR

 

They crushed us in the 2000-09 period.    We have a slight edge on them in 2010-20 to date. 

 

 

The discrepancy is even worse when you think about how our draft picks work, with I think two exceptions, far better than theirs. It’s hard to blame one person, because the problem is over so long, but boy somebody is to blame

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Now the Yankees:

Brett Gardner, 3:29 2005, 42.8 rWAR

Austin Jackson, 8:29 2005, 21.9 rWAR

Aaron Judge, 1:32 2013, 20.1 rWAR

Ian Kennedy, 1:21 2006, 16.7 rWAR (FA comp)

David Robertson, 17:28 2006, 15.8 rWAR

Tyler Clippard, 9:27 2003, 15.5 rWAR

Mark Melancon, 9:28 2006, 11.8 rWAR

Dellin Betances, 8:28 2006, 11.2 rWAR

Phil Hughes, 1:23 2004, 11.0 rWAR (FA comp)

Joba Chamberlain, 1:41 2006, 7.6 rWAR

Adam Warren, 4:28 2008, 6.7 rWAR

David Phelps, 14:28 2007, 6.1 rWAR

George Kontos, 5:28 2006, 3.8 rWAR

Shane Greene, 15:24 2009, 3.5 rWAR

Jordan Montgomery, 4:17 2014, 3.5 rWAR

Jeff Karstens, 19:27 2003, 3.2 rWAR

Jake Cave, 6:28 2011, 2.9 rWAR

Mike Dunn, 33:28 2004, 2.8 rWAR

John Brebbia, 30:28 2011, 2.5 r WAR

Caleb Smith, 14:29 2013, 2.5 rWAR

Zach McAllister, 3:28 2006, 2.5 rWAR

Tommy Kahnle, 5:30 2010, 2.0 rWAR

Phil Coke, 26:24 2002, 2.0 rWAR

Ben Gamel, 10:29 2010, 1.1 rWAR

James Pazos, 13:29 2012, 1.0 rWAR

 

Total: 25 players, 199.5 rWAR

2000-09: 17 players, 163.9 rWAR

2010-20 8 players, 35.6 rWAR

 

Not much there,  but then again, they're always drafting low.

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On 11/13/2016 at 10:43 AM, Frobby said:

Here's my ranking of the best picks the Orioles have made since 2000. That's really 2-3 full generations of players. My list takes into account where the player was drafted -- a guy taken in the 2nd round would be ranked higher than a player taken in the 1st round who has the same value. A player makes this list regardless of whether his value came with the Orioles, or some other team. However, I am not including guys we drafted but didn't sign. I'm also not considering guys who might have been good picks if injuries had not derailed their careers. I'm also not considering guys who haven't made it to the majors yet. Here's my list:

1. Manny Machado, 1:3 pick 2010, 24.4 rWAR -- He's the highest pick we've had in the last 17 drafts, and we made it count. Future Hall of Famer if he can stay healthy.

2. Jake Arrieta, 5:5 pick 2007, 19.8 rWAR -- Brilliant selection and signing by Joe Jordan, but unfortunately all of his value has gone to the Chicago Cubs after we traded Jake away for Scott Feldman.

3. Nick Markakis, 1:7 pick 2003, 29.1 rWAR -- Excellent choice and a future Orioles HOFer. Very nice value at no. 7 overall.

4. Zach Britton, 3:9 pick 2006, 10.2 rWAR -- Lots of value still to come for Britton. A steal in the 3rd round.

5. Matt Wieters, 1:5 pick 2007, 16.3 rWAR -- We were fortunate that he fell to us in the 2007 draft, and we did a good job in signing him. He never lived up to the hype after his first MiL season, but a very worthwhile pick at 1:5.

6. Kevin Gausman, 1:4 pick 2012, 6.2 rWAR -- Solid if unspectacular pick at 1:4. The best is yet to come. The way we moved him up and down the first couple of years may have slowed his development, but the good news is that he's under team control another four years because he's 21 games short of three years of service time despite spending parts of four seasons in the majors. Could move up the list if he can take his game up one more notch.

7. Dylan Bundy, 1:4 pick 2011, 1.8 rWAR -- You really have to close your eyes and guess where to put Bundy on this list. He's a very high pick so you have to take that into account, but I'm hoping that over the next five years he can be a staple of our rotation, and possibly our ace. He could move up as high as no. 3 if things break right, or he could drop a couple of notches. I still feel he has more upside than Gausman, but he needs to prove he can hold up before he moves up.

8. Jim Johnson, 5:7 pick 2001, 10.2 rWAR -- Excellent closer/set up guy for a few years, still serviceable for the Braves in 2016, 15 years after he was drafted.

9. Zach Davies, 26:4 pick 2010, 2.7 rWAR -- Looks to me like a solid BOR starter for a long time, maybe more. Amazing value in the 26th round. If he does well in 2017 I'd probably move him up on this list. Still furious that we threw this value away for two months of a mediocre corner outfielder.

10. Mychal Givens, 2:5 pick 2009, 2.6 rWAR -- You have to project a bit to rank Givens this highly, but he looks to me like he'll have an 8-10 rWAR career at least. Nice value in the second round, even if we did pick him as an infielder.

11. David Hernandez, 16:13 pick, 2005, 4.0 rWAR -- Awesome value for where he was picked. Traded away for Mark Reynolds.

12. John Maine, 6:4 pick 2002, 4.0 rWAR -- Decent BOR starter for a few years, but all his value was after we traded him away for Chris Benson.

13. Brad Bergesen, 4:8 pick 2004, 3.2 rWAR -- Had one excellent year as a starter, maybe could have done more if he hadn't foolishly hurt his shoulder filming a TV commercial

14. Chris Ray, 3:7 pick 2003, 3.2 rWAR -- Had a few good years in our bullpen before he blew out his arm.

15. Mike Fontenot, 1:19 pick 2001, 4.5 rWAR -- Serviceable career, but we threw him away in the Sosa trade.

16. Caleb Joseph, 7:4 pick 2008, 2.5 rWAR -- Did a solid job as our principal catcher in the 2014 playoff run, and sharing the load with Wieters in 2015. It remains to be seen if he has more value to give after a disastrous 2016.

17. Nolan Reimold, 2:13 pick 2005, 2.2 rWAR -- Might have done a bit better if he hadn't been injured so often.

18. Brian Matusz, 1:4 pick 2008, 2.7 rWAR -- Certainly the biggest disappointment on this list, considering where he was drafted, but he did provide some value as a starter in 2009-10 and as a LOOGY in 2012-15.

19. Tyler Wilson, 10:4 pick 2011, 1.0 rWAR -- Not sure he has much more to give, but for a 10th rounder, he gave us a bit of value.

Overall, it strikes me that this is a pretty short list. At some point, I am going to try to do the same list for the other four AL East teams and add them to the list. But in the meantime, I'm interested to see everyone's reactions to my rankings.

Honestly a pretty sad list after #5 ....Really most think that Wieters underachieved , Britton was called a TOR  that ended up in the pen because of durability, and Arrieta was god awful while he was here.

Really, this list describes the drafting and developing failures of the Baltimore Orioles in the 21st century!

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Here are the Rays:

 

Evan Longoria, 1:3 2006, 56.5 rWAR

David Price, 1:1 2007, 39.4 rWAR

James Shields, 16:6 2000, 31.0 rWAR

Kevin Kiermaier, 31:16 2010, 27.3 rWAR

B.J. Upton, 1:2 2002, 16.8 rWAR

Desmond Jennings, 10:3 2006, 13.5 rWAR

Jason Hammel, 10:2 2002, 12.8 rWAR

Alex Cobb, 4:3 2006, 12.5 rWAR

Jeremy Hellickson, 4:8 2005, 11.7 rWAR

Blake Snell, 1s:52 2011, 11.4 rWAR

Wade Davis, 3:3 2004, 11.1 rWAR

John Jaso, 12:1 2003, 10.8 rWAR

Rocco Baldelli, 1:6 2000, 10.2 rWAR

Steven Vogt, 12:1 2007, 7.7 rWAR

Jake McGee, 5:4 2004, 7.4 rWAR

Brandon Lowe, 3:12 2015, 5.6 rWAR

Derek Dietrich, 2:29 2010, 5.3 rWAR (FA comp)

Matt Moore, 8:1 2007, 5.1 rWAR

Jeff Niemann, 4:4 2004, 4.3 rWAR

Jonny Gomes, 8:3 2001, 3.5 rWAR

Tim Beckham, 1:1 2008, 3.5 rWAR

Delmon Young, 1:1 2003, 3.2 rWAR

Chad Gaudin, 34:3 2001, 2.4 rWAR

Joey Gathright, 32:3 2001, 2.2 rWAR

Elijah Dukes, 3:2 2002, 1.9 rWAR

Merrill Kelly 8:16 2010, 1.8 rWAR

Dylan Floro, 13:24 2012, 1.7 rWAR

Jake Cronenworth, 7:13 2015, 1.4 rWAR

Ryne Stanek 1:29 2013, 1.3 rWAR

Adam Liberatore, 21:16 2010, 1.0 rWAR

Joey Rickard, 9:24 2012, 1.0 rWAR

 

Total: 31 players, 325.3 rWAR

2000-09: 21 players, 267.5 rWAR

2010-20: 10 players, 57.8 rWAR

 

I'm a little surprised they haven't been stronger over the last decade.

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Finally, the Blue Jays:

Aaron Hill, 1:13 2003, 24.4 rWAR

Kevin Pillar, 32:18 2011, 16.0 rWAR

Noah Syndergaard, 1:38 2010, 15.7 rWAR (FA comp)

Marcus Stroman, 1:22 2012, 14.7 rWAR

Yan Gomes, 10:19 2009, 14.0 rWAR

Sean Marcum, 3:13 2003, 13.4 rWAR

Adam Lind, 3:12 2004, 12.7 rWAR (FA comp)

Jake Marisnik, 3:24 2009, 10.9 rWAR (FA comp)

Ricky Romero, 1:6 2005, 9.9 rWAR

Aaron Sanchez, 1:34 2010, 8.9 rWAR (FA comp)

Casey Janssen, 4:16 2004, 7.4 rWAR

Brett Cecil, 1:38 2007, 6.6 rWAR (FA comp)

Matthew Boyd, 6:9 2013, 6.6 rWAR

Daniel Norris, 2:14 2011, 6.2 rWAR (FA comp)

Anthony DeSciafani, 6:18 2011, 6.0 rWAR

Ryan Roberts, 18:13 2003, 5.8 rWAR

Sam Dyson, 4:11 2010, 5.6 rWAR

Kendall Graveman, 8:9 2013, 5.2 rWAR

Aaron Loup 9:19 2009, 4.9 rWAR

Gabe Gross, 1:15 2001, 4.6 rWAR

Cavan Biggio, 5:26 2016, 4.6 rWAR

Travis Snider, 1:14 2006, 4.4 rWAR

Joe Musgrove, 1s:46 2012, 4.3 rWAR

Jesse Litsch, 24:16 2004, 3.9 rWAR

Dave Bush, 2:14 2002, 3.6 rWAR

Ryan Goins, 4:19 2009, 3.4 rWAR

Ryan Schimpf, 5:19 2009, 3.3 rWAR

Ryan Tepera, 19:19 2009, 3.1 rWAR

Bo Bichette, 2:25 2016, 3.1 rWAR

Mark Rzepcynski, 5:21 2007, 3.0 rWAR

Brandon League, 2:15 2001, 2.7 rWAR

Jon Berti, 18:18 2012, 2.3 rWAR

Eric Thames, 7:17 2008, 2.1 rWAR

Danny Jansen, 16:9 2013, 2.1 rWAR

Ryan Borucki, 15:17 2012, 2.0 rWAR

J.P. Arencibia. 1:21 2007, 1.9 rWAR

Dustin McGowan, 1:33 2000, 1.6 rWAR (FA comp)

Chad Jenkins, 1:20 2009, 1.4 rWAR

Tim Locastro, 13:9 2013, 1.4 rWAR

Vinnie Chulk, 12:18 2000, 1.3 rWAR

Danny Barnes, 35:11 2010, 1.1 rWAR

Danny Farquhar, 10:17 2008, 1.0 rWAR

 

Total: 42 players, 257.1 rWAR

2000-09: 25 players, 151.3 rWAR

2010-20: 17 players, 105.8 rWAR

 

Tons of quantity here, though the Blue Jays have lacked the big score.   I think Biggio and Bichette may change that, though.

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Putting it all side by side:

Baltimore

Total: 27 players, 254.9 rWAR

2000-09: 15 players, 153.9 rWAR

2009-20: 12 players, 101.0 rWAR  

 

Boston

Total: 37 players, 458.8 rWAR

2000-09: 25 players, 364.8 rWAR

2009-20: 12 players, 94.0 rWAR

 

New York

Total: 25 players, 199.5 rWAR

2000-09: 17 players, 163.9 rWAR

2010-20 8 players, 35.6 rWAR

 

Tampa

Total: 31 players, 325.3 rWAR

2000-09: 21 players, 267.5 rWAR

2010-20: 10 players, 57.8 rWAR

 

Toronto

Total: 42 players, 257.1 rWAR

2000-09: 25 players, 151.3 rWAR

2010-20: 17 players, 105.8 rWAR

 

We really did a terrible job of drafting in the 2000-09 era, but have held our own in the 2010-2020 era so far.  

 

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O's fans always complain about the money advantage that the Red Sox have, but its obvious they won 3 world series since 2004 in large part because of their great drafting.  Of course, the money doesn't hurt.  I was really surprised with how much WAR Pedroia has accumulated.

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On 11/27/2020 at 11:31 AM, Philip said:

God bless Caleb Joseph.

meanwhile. Zach Davies....grrr...9.7 WAR.

Think we coulda’ used that?

please don’t share Parra’s Orioles WAR...that just twists the knife.

I had a bad feeling about the Parra trade the moment it was made. Trading for a player having a career year and changing leagues is a good way to get that player to return back to his career norms.

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3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I had a bad feeling about the Parra trade the moment it was made. Trading for a player having a career year and changing leagues is a good way to get that player to return back to his career norms.

If he had returned to his career norms, that would have been a vast improvement over what he actually did for the Orioles.   He had a .625 OPS during his time here.   

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