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FanSince88

Sign Bourn and Pagan and presto we have an outfield

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5 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Pagan's OPS against RH starters is .720.  Not sure Rickard or Alvarez can top that even if you played them strictly against lefties.  What other RH OF are on the market this offseason?  I guess I'd be willing to accept crappy defender if he can rake against lefties and is platooning.  

Pagan is the best fit. He is a Switch Hitter.  As you pointed out his possible platoon partners wouldn't out perform him vs LHP.  He's got lead off experience.  Playoffs/winning baseball/World Series experience.  For a team that is looking to get over the hump, he's a good addition.  

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11 minutes ago, oriole said:

 

I'm not saying he is the best lead off hitter or we should give him a huge contract. He offers potential high average and high speed at the top of a lineup that right now features Adam Jones as our lead off hitter. 

You called him a protoypical lead off hitter. He is not that, which is what I pointed out. He's a bad hitter anywhere in the lineup. High average means very little when it doesn't come with a high OBP and no power. I don't want a guy who even if he rebounds is 20 percent worse than league average at the plate getting the most plate appearances on the team.

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2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The best team of what is left in FA for us;

1. Pagan RF S (2016 splits .766 vs RHP, .717 vs LHP) No need for a platoon

2. Kim LF L 

3. Machado 3B R

4. Encarnacion DH R

5. Davis 1B  L

6. Jones CF R

7. Schoop 2B R

8. Castillo C R

9. Hardy SS R

Flaherty, Joseph, Rickard, Open spot(Rule 5 guy, Tavarez)

Spend the 25ish million on Pagan and EE.  Rid ourselves of the Gallardo contract.  That's how you win the division and not just play 162 games for a chance at a 1 game play in game.  It's all up to PA.  OF defense is improved.  OBP is improved.  

Damn that lineup is impressive.  It would be awesome to be able to bat Jones 6th, and I think he'd respond well.  Maybe swap him and Davis vs LHP.  Even Castilo in the 8 hole could do some damage.  I'd almost want to drop Kim (or Pagan) to 9th so you could turn around the lineup with OBP on both ends and bump everyone else up a notch.  

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2 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

 

2 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

You called him a protoypical lead off hitter. He is not that, which is what I pointed out. He's a bad hitter anywhere in the lineup. High average means very little when it doesn't come with a high OBP and no power. I don't want a guy who even if he rebounds is 20 percent worse than league average at the plate getting the most plate appearances on the team.

Actually high AVG can have value in RISP situations even if the OBP is low.  Case in point -- Hardy when he's having a good year.  He doesn't take walks but he can put the ball in play to advance runners.  

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21 minutes ago, oriole said:

Other than last year Revere has been a prototypical lead off hitter. I'd love to give him a chance in LF and move Kim to a platoon at DH with Mancini. Count me as one that is crossing their fingers for Revere.

No, he really hasn't.  A .320 lifetime OBP shows that he's been a below average lead-off hitter.  Last year's .260 OBP is incredibly awful for any non-pitcher, much less the guy that you want to have more plate appearances than any other player on the team.  His OBP has always been wholly dependent upon his BA, since he never walks, and pitchers are completely unafraid to throw strikes to him.  He has zero power.  His BA is wholly dependent upon his speed.  He frankly isn't likely to increase his number of infield hits as he gets older.  And if a runner is on first base, his odds are diminished even further, since any possible infield hit is likely turned into a force out.  The guy is not a MLB outfielder.  He can't throw.  And right field in particular, which is our biggest need, is out of the question.  The guy can barely hit it into the outfield grass from home plate, and he can't throw it any farther than that, either.  If a team could afford to waste a roster spot on a pinch-runner, Revere would be worth having at the minimum salary.  Otherwise, no.  The Nationals non-tendered him, and they were in the market for an outfielder.  Think about that for a minute.  Of all the options available to us, Revere is, hands down, the worst possible choice, IMO.  I think some of us may be looking at it as if real-life MLB was like Fantasy Roto and that stolen bases by themselves were, somehow, vital.  A guy's speed blinds them to the fact that he simply isn't a very good baseball player.  I guess that's what is meant by the expression "blinding speed."  xD

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2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

No, he really hasn't.  A .320 lifetime OBP shows that he's been a below average lead-off hitter.  Last year's .260 OBP is incredibly awful for any non-pitcher, much less the guy that you want to have more plate appearances than any other player on the team.  His OBP has always been wholly dependent upon his BA, since he never walks, and pitchers are completely unafraid to throw strikes to him.  He has zero power.  His BA is wholly dependent upon his speed.  He frankly isn't likely to increase his number of infield hits as he gets older.  And if a runner is on first base, his odds are diminished even further, since any possible infield hit is likely turned into a force out.  The guy is not a MLB outfielder.  He can't throw.  And right field in particular, which is our biggest need, is out of the question.  The guy can barely hit it into the outfield grass from home plate, and he can't throw it any farther than that, either.  If a team could afford to waste a roster spot on a pinch-runner, Revere would be worth having at the minimum salary.  Otherwise, no.  The Nationals non-tendered him, and they were in the market for an outfielder.  Think about that for a minute.  Of all the options available to us, Revere is, hands down, the worst possible choice, IMO.  I think some of us may be looking at it as if real-life MLB was like Fantasy Roto and that stolen bases by themselves were, somehow, vital.  A guy's speed blinds them to the fact that he simply isn't a very good baseball player.  I guess that's what is meant by the expression "blinding speed."  xD

haha, this is as good a case against Revere as I've seen.  And it's hard to disagree.  If we picked him up, he'd be more suited to the #9 hole, not the leadoff, even if he hits better than he did last season.  

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12 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Pagan's OPS against RH starters is .720.  Not sure Rickard or Alvarez can top that even if you played them strictly against lefties.  What other RH OF are on the market this offseason?  I guess I'd be willing to accept crappy defender if he can rake against lefties and is platooning.  

Where are you getting your numbers?" bbr has him career v RHP .751, v RHSP .746

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4 minutes ago, Number5 said:

No, he really hasn't.  A .320 lifetime OBP shows that he's been a below average lead-off hitter.  Last year's .260 OBP is incredibly awful for any non-pitcher, much less the guy that you want to have more plate appearances than any other player on the team.  His OBP has always been wholly dependent upon his BA, since he never walks, and pitchers are completely unafraid to throw strikes to him.  He has zero power.  His BA is wholly dependent upon his speed.  He frankly isn't likely to increase his number of infield hits as he gets older.  And if a runner is on first base, his odds are diminished even further, since any possible infield hit is likely turned into a force out.  The guy is not a MLB outfielder.  He can't throw.  And right field in particular, which is our biggest need, is out of the question.  The guy can barely hit it into the outfield grass from home plate, and he can't throw it any farther than that, either.  If a team could afford to waste a roster spot on a pinch-runner, Revere would be worth having at the minimum salary.  Otherwise, no.  The Nationals non-tendered him, and they were in the market for an outfielder.  Think about that for a minute.  Of all the options available to us, Revere is, hands down, the worst possible choice, IMO.  I think some of us may be looking at it as if real-life MLB was like Fantasy Roto and that stolen bases by themselves were, somehow, vital.  A guy's speed blinds them to the fact that he simply isn't a very good baseball player.  I guess that's what is meant by the expression "blinding speed."  xD

And given all this, I can't understand how anyone could possibly prefer Revere over Bourn.  At least Bourn can consistently post a plus-.300 OBP and can play some right field.  

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4 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Where are you getting your numbers?" bbr has him career v RHP .751, v RHSP .746

Argh, it was a typo -- I meant to say LH starters not RH.  Here's where i got them, same place as you actually: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=paganan01&year=Career&t=b

although looking at 2016 he was pretty brutal against lefty starters -- well under .700 OPS.  

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8 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Actually high AVG can have value in RISP situations even if the OBP is low.  Case in point -- Hardy when he's having a good year.  He doesn't take walks but he can put the ball in play to advance runners.  

On the aggregate, it's not valuable. J.J. Hardy hasn't even been a league average hitter since 2011, and he was good then because he hit for enough power to mask his OBP deficiency.

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1 minute ago, El Gordo said:

Where are you getting your numbers?" bbr has him career v RHP .751, v RHSP .746

I think he meant vs LHP.  Pagan is clearly the best option in RF when you consider what it would cost us, him being a SH, and having lead off experience.

I'm thinking 2/16 gets it done.  Doesn't cost us a draft pick, players, or a long term salary commitment.  

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Just now, FanSince88 said:

Argh, it was a typo -- I meant to say LH starters not RH.  Here's where i got them, same place as you actually: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=paganan01&year=Career&t=b

although looking at 2016 he was pretty brutal against lefty starters -- well under .700 OPS.  

Which is why I'd prefer a platoon.

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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think he meant vs LHP.  Pagan is clearly the best option in RF when you consider what it would cost us, him being a SH, and having lead off experience.

I'm thinking 2/16 gets it done.  Doesn't cost us a draft pick, players, or a long term salary commitment.  

But again, can Pagan play right?  He hasn't done it since 2010.  

Has anyone seen him play a lot?  Does he still have the arm for right field?  According to the stats, he's been a butcher in CF the last few seasons, but I'm not sure what that tells us of his capacity for RF.  

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34 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

And given all this, I can't understand how anyone could possibly prefer Revere over Bourn.  At least Bourn can consistently post a plus-.300 OBP and can play some right field.  

Revere's OBP prior to 2016 going back four years:  .342, .325, .338, .333.  

Bourn's OBP going back four years: .314, .310, .314, .316.

I'll take Revere.  He's also a better base stealer.  I don't want either guy playing RF.  But I'll take Revere in left versus right handers.   

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