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CheeryO

Interesting Fangraphs article on different directions O's could take after 2017

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If we are floating around .500 or worse in late July, it will be interesting to see what we do.  

It's 60/40 IMO that we are in contention at the trade deadline.  If we aren't I hope we make the right decision and trade some of these pending free agents for prospects who can help us in the future. 

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Part of the article discusses the possibility of a 2017 flop but a 2018 rebound for one last go with Machado/Britton/Jones. But the suggestion supposes that a major source of the rebound would be using the cash saved from expiring contracts to spend big on a free agent SP or two next winter. I'm not sure that I buy that as a likely scenario-- the O's have so little history of signing star SPs that the top guys seem unlikely (Arrieta, Darvish, maybe Cueto and Tanaka). And I'm not sure if the Tillman-tier guys (which there are a lot of) would make 2018's team fundamentally different. 

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23 minutes ago, esmd said:

Tillman's projected WAR is 1.5 and Jimenez's is 1.4?  That's laughable.

Maybe not when you're a computer that's programmed to place heavy emphasis on K rates, BB rates, and HR rates. in making your projections. 

But yeah, it's odd. 1.4 WAR is less than they credited Tillman with for his 5 ERA season in 2015. Their WAR calculations are pretty FIP-related and for some reason or another they have him projected for his worst FIP since 2010.

For what it's worth, for the same FIP-dependent reasons, Fangraphs is a lot friendlier towards Ubaldo's Orioles tenure than Baseball Reference is. FG has him at 4.7 WAR total over the three years while BR has him at 2.2 WAR with pretty much all of the positive value coming in 2015. 

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