I don’t know him, but especially with 2080baseball not doing a Rule 5 preview this year, his is the only comparable Rule 5 Draft preview in the public domain. He’s been doing it for a lot longer than me and he has sources, so it’s a solid measuring stick for my work on the subject.
This is a nuts offseason isn't it.
I'm going to start with his Steamer 2020 predictions, which are 5.5 WAR. I figure he's good for:
That's an estimated 30.5 WAR. Assuming FA rates are at around 8mm/WAR, that's an expected return of about 244m. Not too bad.
cost per WAR has stayed stagnant/regressed slightly in the past couple years, so there's no guarantee that the future will see more expensive prices. This seems like fair market value for a good player that's been moderately durable for his career. Hopefully he doesn't fall off a cliff like Pujols did.
Well they’ve hinted that they are looking at starting pitching.
Fuentes, Sharp, and Rijo don’t really fit the profile of pitchers the Orioles have targeted under Elias. That doesn’t mean they won’t take them, but I think it’s less likely.
Newsome checks a few boxes from a pure statistical standpoint.
It’s hard to pinpoint who they’d target to start, I doubt they have evaluated Bailey as a starter.
Maybe they want to get Brown to drop his 2S. Or aren’t afraid to grab a starter without much AA time in Ian McKinney. Misiewicz would be another option if they want to go safer.
Buddy Reed fits the need for a pure CF guy to give depth behind Hays.
Fermin makes sense in terms of adding quality to the middle infielder org depth. Yonny Hernandez too but I doubt people are as high on him, I think he’s just a personal favorite.
I know with Orioles prospects the philosophy is you have to graduate each level in the minors.
If they stick to that, it limits things to Tom, Rojas, Megill, Clay (I’m assuming there is no fit for Nogowski) and a few others. That’s the best chance for 2020 value, but limits the potential for long term value.
Revenues are up, but the % of MLB players getting that is shriking and in-equality in pay is raising between players.
The system is broken, younger players are way under-paid. Which gives teams a silly amount of surplus value to use. They have to invest it somewhere to make it matter. That is why you see bonkers FA deals for top talents.
This broken system is why re-building is much more en-vouge then it was before. Its so freaking profitable to stack up on guys who are talented and give you 3 years of pre-arb. Then 3 more years of escalating 1 year salaries based on merit.
The way to stop is a re-model of the arb system and let the youth that are actually winning the games get more $$$