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Aristotelian

OH Challenge: Retool and Compete in One Year

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8 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Isn't his and Bucks contracts up next year? 

Yes, both contracts expire after the 2018 season.  Both will be "Lame Ducks" after this season.

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4 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

You want the biggest haul of prospects?  Do the deal with the devil that Angelos probably wouldn't allow them to make, and offer Machado, Britton and Brach to the Nationals.  Talks start with Trea Turner, Victor Robles and Erick Fedde, and include many more.  

Nationals have a window to win now with Bryce Harper, working under the same thing we are with Manny.  They need a back end of the bullpen in the worst way, Britton and Brach now shut down the 8th and 9th inning for them.  Even if they don't want Manny and take Turner off the table (though I would push strongly that having Manny in that lineup for 1.5 years would be worth it for them to give up Turner) they would most certainly give up Robles and others if that meant locking down their bullpen with those two guys.  Just imagine trying to pitch through Murphy, Machado, Harper, Zimmerman and Rendon in the playoffs.  Not to mention they have the aces we never did.  

But, I doubt Angelos allows Duquette to even make contact with the Nationals, which is a shame, because right now we are a trade match made in heaven. 

I doubt Angelos would allow anything done. 

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7 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

Houston badly wants a LH RP, they are loaded with prospects. If Britton can get us Martes, then that's simple, if not perhaps Paulino + and either is ready in 2018.

Sign Estrada & Cobb. 

Bundy, Gausman, Estrada, Cobb, Martes. That's one fine rotation. We can't lose anything at SS, I'd rather sign Espinosa than give big money to any of the FAs with a pick attached.

The Nats need relief help and lost Eaton, I think they're a great fit for Jones now and next year he replaces Werth as they negotiate with Harper and see how Robles developes. I'd take Taylor from the Nats and a prospect and make Taylor my CF of the future. I don't think we could get Robles with Jones/Brach but we may be able to add Brach + O'Day and get Fedde + difo. Jones/Brach/O'Day for Taylor, Fedde, Difo. 

If nothing is good on the SS market I'm moving CD to 3rd and Manny to SS. 

 

Not sure either Nats or DD would make the Machado deal, but Estrada and Cobb were the names that jumped out at me. Consistent guys that throw strikes and know how to pitch. Might not even need to dump Trumbo to clear enough salary for those two. Then we keep Manny. Just need to replace JJ. Having a couple solid pitchers to replace Ubaldo and Miley would make a big difference.

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Just now, Aristotelian said:

Not sure either Nats or DD would make the Machado deal, but Estrada and Cobb were the names that jumped out at me. Consistent guys that throw strikes and know how to pitch. Might not even need to dump Trumbo to clear enough salary for those two. Then we keep Manny. Just need to replace JJ. Having a couple solid pitchers to replace Ubaldo and Miley would make a big difference.

 

I don't want to dump Trumbo to clear salary. I want to dump Trumbo because of the logjam with the emergence of Mancini, and being stuck with Davis. Moving Trumbo would allow us to have a better OF.

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Folks still don't understand how deep the DD destruction of this franchise is.

Even if a very good GM falls into the O's lap (I put this at < 5% probability) it will still take 3-5 years to be a true playoff contender

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On 6/24/2017 at 8:55 AM, webbrick2010 said:

Folks still don't understand how deep the DD destruction of this franchise is.

Even if a very good GM falls into the O's lap (I put this at < 5% probability) it will still take 3-5 years to be a true playoff contender

What is your definition of a "true playoff contender?"

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I already put my firesale in another thread so I won't put that here. I think the Orioles are going to use money and go for it again in 2018 so knowing that this is what I'd do. 

Let Walk

Ubaldo Jimenez -13.5M

JJ Hardy – 12 M

Wellington Castillo – 6M

Seth Smith – 7M

Hyun Soo Kim – 3.5M

Ryan Flaherty – 1.1 M

Available Money: 43.1 Million

Trade Mark Trumbo to Rangers for Joey Gallo. I don’t know how feasible this is but I want to dump Trumbo’s salary and Gallo has struggled and is blocked. Rangers need a first baseman with Napoli walking.

Trade Zach Britton to Nationals for SP Erick Fedde and OF Andrew Stevenson

Available Money: 65 Million

Sign OF Jon Jay to 3/27 Million

Sign IF Stephen Drew 2/6 Million

Sign SP Jaime Garcia to 4/56 Million

Sign SP Chris Tillman 1/10.6 Million

Sign SP Scott Feldman 1/6.5 Million

Sign RP Jake Mcgee 3/30 Million

Roster:

C: Chance Sisco

1B: Chris Davis/Trey Mancini

2B: Jonathan Schoop

3B: Joey Gallo

SS: Manny Machado

LF: Jon Jay

CF: Adam Jones

RF: Andrew Stevenson

DH: Chris Davis/Trey Mancini

RHP Dylan Bundy

RHP Kevin Gausmen

RHP Erick Fedde

LHP Jaime Garcia

RHP Chris Tillman

Bench:

C Caleb Joseph

OF Joey Rickard

IF Stephen Drew

OF Craig Gentry

Bullpen:

LHP Jake McGee

RHP Mychal Givens

RHP Brad Brach

RHP Darren O’Day

LHP Tanner Scott

RHP Mike Wright

RHP Scott Feldman

Available Money: 11.9 Million

Edited by Lucky_13

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Its too early to really know this for sure, but it looks like the O's need to add three starters for next year.  That should drive what else happens.  Free Agent starters will not sign with the O's so the O's need to trade for them or develop them.

They may be able to get one or two from trading Britton.    And I would be starting Long every fifth day at AA because the O's have to know what he is capable of doing.

Passed that I think the O's need to keep Castillo because Sisco can't control the running game at this point and its a question if he will ever be able to be a front line catcher because of that.

Hays looks like the CF of the future because they moved Mullins to left when Hays was promoted.  When the two of them arrive is an important fact and we will probably not know that until after the 2nd half is done.

Bottom line: Concentrate on the starting pitching.  The rest can be worked out.

 

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You can't re-tool into a contender in one year if you don't already have some major league pitching prospects at the upper levels of the minors.

2019 would be the best target date we could shoot for if we re-tool.

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On 6/24/2017 at 3:59 AM, Cumberbundy said:

You think they'd deal Robles and Fedde for Britton and Brach? I doubt they'd deal Turner, but that would be an interesting move. I think Jones is a perfect fit in that OF, particularly if we landed Robles, they'd have Jones/Harper/Werth this year and flip Eaton for Werth next year. Obviously Jones would offer much more than Taylor heading into the playoffs, we may get him a ring and we can get ourselves young talent. The pieces they could most use are the only things we have. Brittons return could do a lot for our future. 

I can't see them having any interest at all in Jones - when they have Michael A. Taylor having a better year at a small fraction of the cost.  Jones is not a better player at this point in their careers, and there's no reason to believe he'd give them a better chance at a ring.  

Let's not even mention Turner - since there's no chance they trade him.  

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28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its too early to really know this for sure, but it looks like the O's need to add three starters for next year.  That should drive what else happens.  Free Agent starters will not sign with the O's so the O's need to trade for them or develop them.

They may be able to get one or two from trading Britton.    And I would be starting Long every fifth day at AA because the O's have to know what he is capable of doing.

Passed that I think the O's need to keep Castillo because Sisco can't control the running game at this point and its a question if he will ever be able to be a front line catcher because of that.

Hays looks like the CF of the future because they moved Mullins to left when Hays was promoted.  When the two of them arrive is an important fact and we will probably not know that until after the 2nd half is done.

Bottom line: Concentrate on the starting pitching.  The rest can be worked out.

 

I agree with this and one of the above posts focused on pitching. If we just had a decent year from Tillman or Gausman and replacement level from the spots currently occupied by Miley and Ubaldo, this team would still be a couple games over .500 and right in the race for the wild card, if not the division. Estrada and Cobb are the names that jumped out at me too.

JJ currently has negative replacement value. It should not be hard to replace his current level of production. 

It is possible that Mullins or Hays could be upgrades that don't cost anything. 

I don't see DD blowing it up completely, for better or for worse I see some version of this happening. Of course, a little hot streak before the trade deadline and it is possible that we become buyers agains.

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On 6/24/2017 at 8:55 AM, webbrick2010 said:

Folks still don't understand how deep the DD destruction of this franchise is.

Even if a very good GM falls into the O's lap (I put this at < 5% probability) it will still take 3-5 years to be a true playoff contender

If it's a team that's built to contend for several years, I'd be happy to wait 3 years for the team to develop.  

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On 6/23/2017 at 11:20 PM, Aristotelian said:

Can it be done? 

Salary coming off the books - Ubaldo $13.5M, Hardy $12M ($14M - $2M buyout), Castillo ($6M) = $31.5M

Trade assets w/ current salary - Britton ($11.4M), Brach ($3M - will be due a big raise), Manny ($11.5M), Seth Smith ($7M), Kim ($3.5M), Trumbo ($11.5M), Jones ($17M) - potentially $65M off the books if all are traded

Needs: SS, 3B, OF, RP, SP, C

How do we fill all our needs while maintaining a level budget? 

Can't be done. You need the five years of drafting real high. 

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Its too early to really know this for sure, but it looks like the O's need to add three starters for next year.  That should drive what else happens.  Free Agent starters will not sign with the O's so the O's need to trade for them or develop them.

They may be able to get one or two from trading Britton.    And I would be starting Long every fifth day at AA because the O's have to know what he is capable of doing.

Passed that I think the O's need to keep Castillo because Sisco can't control the running game at this point and its a question if he will ever be able to be a front line catcher because of that.

Hays looks like the CF of the future because they moved Mullins to left when Hays was promoted.  When the two of them arrive is an important fact and we will probably not know that until after the 2nd half is done.

Bottom line: Concentrate on the starting pitching.  The rest can be worked out.

 

Free agent starters will sign with the O's if the O's pay the money for them.  It's not like it's harder to hit home runs in Yankee Stadium than it is in Camden.  All this talk about free agent starters not signing with Baltimore comes down to $.

I'm not saying the O's should pay whatever it takes to get X starter, but if you pay they will come.

Edited by CheeryO

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1 minute ago, CheeryO said:

Free agent starters will sign with the O's if the O's pay the money for them.  It's not like it's harder to hit home runs in Yankee Stadium than it is in Camden.  All this talk about free agent starters not signing with Baltimore comes down to $.

I'm not saying the O's should pay whatever it takes to get X starter, but if you pay they will come.

And the physical.

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