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Tryptamine

BP Midseason Top 50

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1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Again, you're ignoring Choo was a major threat on the bases and also Choo was constantly injured. If you go on a per game basis, Choo averages for his career 20.5HR per 162 games. I'm not arguing that Chance couldn't become a 2fWAR OFer like Markakis, I'm arguing how much value he really has to an organization when that's pretty much his ceiling. That's basically a 4th OFer.

Pretty sure two wins is a major league average player.  That is ton of surplus value for the first five years or so of team control.  I'd love a 1.5 win corner outfielder making the league minimum.  Beats paying Trumbo 3/37.5 for a lot less.

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure two wins is a major league average player.  That is ton of surplus value for the first five years or so of team control.  I'd love a 1.5 win corner outfielder making the league minimum.  Beats paying Trumbo 3/37.5 for a lot less.

No argument there. Still surprised they let themselves get suckered in by that 1st half instead of looking at the rest of the body of work.

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18 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

??? 

Yes, a shortstop does have a special skillset. They more easily transition to other positions. Machado became the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Schoop has played outstanding second base. No, Mountcastle isn't anywhere near where they were defensively, but I have more confidence he could learn second or left field than Sisco at 22 years old shift positions. 

I'm not going to explain the catching position. It's drastically different than any other position on the field. To assume you can shift from crouching in gear and calling pitches to tracking fly balls or turning double plays is amazing. We have no evidence Sisco can play the field. And even if he could, he has severe splits. 

The evidence he is a 10 home run guy? Perhaps the fact he has hit 21 home runs in 423 games and more than 1,500 at bats against minor league pitching. I think 10 home runs is generous. His career high is.... 6. 

You are changing your statement a little now.  You were clearly comparing the likelihood of one player staying at SS to one being able to stay at C.  Now you are speculating on what positions they will be moved to in the future and their ability to be adequate there. 

That wasn't the argument I was making.  Sisco is going to get a chance to play catcher in the big leagues.  Mountcastle will not get a chance to play SS in the majors.  He may not get a chance to play SS in Double A. 

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think Schoop played an outstanding second base?

Wow, not that I thought you had much credibility but BOOM, the remainder is gone. 

Schoop was pretty good in 2014.  Any other year...not even close to outstanding.

BTW Mark Reynolds used to be a shortstop.

You're really losing track of your argument here. So far your reason for saying Sisco can shift to another position as well as Mountcastle is Mark Reynolds once played shortstop and Sisco has a very good minor league OBP. 

My assertion: Sisco is not a Top 100 prospect at the 2017 midpoint and do not expect him to be such at the end of the season if he continues at this rate this season. 

Option 1: Sisco is a left-handed hitting catcher with severe lefty/righty splits that is below average defensively. 

Option 2: Sisco is a [2B/3B/RF/LF/1B] with at most 10 home run power while playing on a platoon against right handed pitchers. 

Mountcastle has shown the potential to be a plus hitter with plus power. If he can play adequate defense at any position, those offensive skills are valuable. 

I also still don't understand how it's debatable that a 19 year old SS has objectively greater potential to successfully shift positions than a 22 year old catcher. 

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sisco was a shortstop before he switched to catcher.   

In high school. 5 years ago. 

I also played shortstop when I was 10. I transitioned well to 3B when I moved to a 90-foot diamond. I was a decent backup outfielder for my high school's JV team. 

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3 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

You're really losing track of your argument here. So far your reason for saying Sisco can shift to another position as well as Mountcastle is Mark Reynolds once played shortstop and Sisco has a very good minor league OBP. 

My assertion: Sisco is not a Top 100 prospect at the 2017 midpoint and do not expect him to be such at the end of the season if he continues at this rate this season. 

Option 1: Sisco is a left-handed hitting catcher with severe lefty/righty splits that is below average defensively. 

Option 2: Sisco is a [2B/3B/RF/LF/1B] with at most 10 home run power while playing on a platoon against right handed pitchers. 

Mountcastle has shown the potential to be a plus hitter with plus power. If he can play adequate defense at any position, those offensive skills are valuable. 

I also still don't understand how it's debatable that a 19 year old SS has objectively greater potential to successfully shift positions than a 22 year old catcher. 

That isn't my argument at all.

My argument is more of the following:

  1. We know for a fact that Mountcastle will not stay at short.  We do not know for a fact if Sisco will stay at Catcher
  2. The mere fact that Mountcastle is a poor shortstop does not mean he can easily transition to another position *that is where Mark Reynolds comes in
  3. Twenty-two is nowhere near too old for a position prospect.  In fact if he stays at Catcher an additional year at AAA wouldn't hurt his status much at all
  4. Sisco's OBP makes him valuable even if he has to move to the CO.

Folks seem to be under the delusion that a guy needs to be a 3-4 win player to have value.  If Sisco can put up a 1.5-2 win level as the strong side of an outfield platoon that is great news at the league minimum.

 

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Sisco has a much greater chance of sticking as a catcher than Mountcastle has of sticking at SS.

Sisco ranks lower on my personal list for these reasons...

1. Questions about development of power (in his favor he is only 22, so he's got some time)

2. Questions about his final defensive position (he's not the athlete Mountcastle is IMO)

3. Platoon questions, his struggles with lefty pitching this year are worrying (again, in his favor, he's young for the league)

I agree with Can_of_corn, I think he'll be a MLB player, and I think the 1.5 WAR level as a platoon outfielder is a reasonable floor.  He's got some serious upside too, but currently a lot has to go right to reach it, making the likely outcome closer to the floor than the ceiling.

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1) I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Sisco won't stick at catch as a major league player. AAA base runners are taking significantly more chances on him than league average and having a high success rate. This isn't the difference between ML and AAA pitchers ability to hold runners. It's poor compared to his peers and has been consistently poor for his entire minor league career. 

2) Shortstops are shortstops because they are among the best athletes available. Yes, Mark Reynolds was a garbage defensive player who hits bombs and strikes out a lot. 5 years from now, that could be Mountcastle. But the mantra is to draft shortstops because you can move them other places. We saw the same thing with Brandon Snyder - That all-time Baysox Great. Players move to catcher to improve their draft value because they are deficient in some other aspect of their game - the idea being if you can learn how to catch, it'll make up for other shortcomings because catchers are hard to find. There are Biggios, Werths, but there are far more shortstop to other position success stories than catcher to something - especially when one is 3 years younger. 

3) Yes, having to spend another year in AAA does hurt his prospect value. A 22 year old catcher with poor defensive skills is less valuable than a 23 year old catcher with poor defensive skills. Reminder: He has now shown any power nor the ability to hit left handed pitching. 

4) Does it make him a Top 100 prospect? That's what this thread is about - prospect rankings. 

Edited by MachoMachadoMan

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8 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

1) I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Sisco won't stick at catch as a major league player. AAA base runners are taking significantly more chances on him than league average and having a high success rate. This isn't the difference between ML and AAA pitchers ability to hold runners. It's poor compared to his peers and has been consistently poor for his entire minor league career. 

2) Shortstops are shortstops because they are among the best athletes available. Yes, Mark Reynolds was a garbage defensive player who hits bombs and strikes out a lot. 5 years from now, that could be Mountcastle. But the mantra is to draft shortstops because you can move them other places. Players move to catcher to improve their draft value because they are deficient in some other aspect of their game - the idea being if you can learn how to catch, it'll make up for other shortcomings because catchers are hard to find. There are Biggios, Werths, but there are far more shortstop to other position success stories than catcher to something - especially when one is 3 years younger. 

3) Yes, having to spend another year in AAA does hurt his prospect value. A 22 year old catcher with poor defensive skills is less valuable than a 23 year old catcher with poor defensive skills. Reminder: He has now shown any power nor the ability to hit left handed pitching. 

4) Does it make him a Top 100 prospect? That's what this thread is about - prospect rankings. 

I have my doubts about his defense at catcher as well but don't write him off so quickly.

Would you agree that Caleb Joseph is a solid defensive catcher?  

Here is his scouting report from Baseball Prospectus after his age 22-23 season (he was only in A+ ball rather than AAA)...

9. Caleb Joseph, C
DOB: 06/18/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 7th round, 2008, Lipscomb University
2009 Stats: .284/.337/.450 at High-A (104 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: Joseph's a mid-round catcher who built upon an impressive pro debut with an excellent showing in the Carolina League, earning prospect consideration for his effort.
The Good: He's an excellent hitter with good barrel manipulation and some of the best plate coverage in the system. He has at least gap power and can punish mistakes over the fence. He's a good athlete for a catcher.
The Bad: Joseph's long, skinny build leaves many wondering if he can stand up to the rigors of catching full-time, a concern that gained more steam when he just .132 in his last 26 games. His receiving is average at best, and opposing teams ran wild on him, amassing 110 stolen bases in just 98 games behind the plate; he threw out 27 percent of stolen-base attempts.

 

 

So it's not unheard of for someone's defense to improve, I wouldn't rule it out for Sisco, especially given his age and relative inexperience at the position.

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It's not unheard of. Sisco could develop into an adequate defensive catcher. But once again....

Is he a Top 100 prospect? Is a 22 year old who has not shown to competently play his position nor adequately hit left handed pitching one of the 100 best prospects in baseball? 

And once again...

How are we more optimistic about a 22 year old catcher in AAA making a transition to a new position in time to retain prospect status than a 19 year old shortstop in A+? 

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1 minute ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

It's not unheard of. Sisco could develop into an adequate defensive catcher. But once again....

Is he a Top 100 prospect? Is a 22 year old who has not shown to competently play his position nor adequately hit left handed pitching one of the 100 best prospects in baseball? 

And once again...

How are we more optimistic about a 22 year old catcher in AAA making a transition to a new position in time to retain prospect status than a 19 year old shortstop in A+? 

Where are you getting this more from?

From what I recall of this thread it was just people disagreeing with your assumption that Mountcastle would have a much easier time of it.  That doesn't mean we think Sisco would have it easier.

 

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20 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

It's not unheard of. Sisco could develop into an adequate defensive catcher. But once again....

Is he a Top 100 prospect? Is a 22 year old who has not shown to competently play his position nor adequately hit left handed pitching one of the 100 best prospects in baseball? 

And once again...

How are we more optimistic about a 22 year old catcher in AAA making a transition to a new position in time to retain prospect status than a 19 year old shortstop in A+? 

You say 22 like it's a bad thing, he is the 6th youngest position player in the International League.  Of the guys younger than him, 3 are top 20 prospects in baseball and the other 2 are 1st basemen (neither of which are hitting significantly better than Sisco). 

Edit: Jake Bauers 1B, has a 120 RC+ as compared to Sisco's 108, so I guess you could argue that he is hitting significantly better, but my point is even if Sisco is a left fielder, the difference in defensive value easily bridges this gap.

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I think Sisco is still a borderline top 100 prospect.    Nobody hits as well at Norfolk.

Interesting to compare Sisco and Mountcastle at Frederick:

Sisco: .308/.387/.422, 4 HR 26 RBI in 300 PA

Mountcastle: .309/.335/.543, 15 HR 45 RBI in 340 PA.

I'd have to say advantage Mountcastle.   

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29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Where are you getting this more from?

From what I recall of this thread it was just people disagreeing with your assumption that Mountcastle would have a much easier time of it.  That doesn't mean we think Sisco would have it easier.

 

I have stated several times that my point is Sisco is not a Top 100 prospect. See below:

 

1 hour ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

This. 

And the question is whether or not Sisco is a Top 100 prospect. BA had him at #57 coming into the season. MLB Pipeline didn't have him in the Top 100. His offensive numbers are down, which could be attributed to playing in Norfolk. But reports on his defense are still poor. 

By your own statement in the Sisco thread

You're going to rank a guy who needs to be sat against lefties in your Top 100? His entire value is his bat. Now he's a platoon catcher with below-average defensive skills. Compelling.  

 

2 hours ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

Maybe a long-shot, but DL Hall could be just outside the Top 100 depending on if he pitches well in Aberdeen. He was considered by some evaluators to be a Top 10 talent, which could be enough for consideration. 

I don't expect Sisco to be in any Top 100 lists barring a big offensive second half. It's pretty clear at this point he won't be a ML catcher. His position is more in question than Mountcastle's due to the specialization of catching. Nobody has any clue how he'd adjust to corner outfield and we don't know how his bat plays there. 

 

1 hour ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

My assertion: Sisco is not a Top 100 prospect at the 2017 midpoint and do not expect him to be such at the end of the season if he continues at this rate this season. 

 

47 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

4) Does it make him a Top 100 prospect? That's what this thread is about - prospect rankings. 

 

34 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

It's not unheard of. Sisco could develop into an adequate defensive catcher. But once again....

Is he a Top 100 prospect? Is a 22 year old who has not shown to competently play his position nor adequately hit left handed pitching one of the 100 best prospects in baseball? 

I'm sorry if you missed those FIVE times I said that was my point. 

Additionally, I still believe a 19 year old shortstop in A+ ball has a higher likelihood of successfully transitioning to another position than a 22 year old catcher who has never played another field position professionally. I don't see how that is a ludicrous assumption. 

Edited by MachoMachadoMan
Bolding

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3 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

I have stated several times that my point is Sisco is not a Top 100 prospect. See below:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry if you missed those FIVE times I said that was my point. 

Additionally, I still believe a 19 year old shortstop in A+ ball has a higher likelihood of successfully transitioning to another position than a 22 year old catcher who has never played another field position professionally. I don't see how that is a ludicrous assumption. 

Not sure why you couldn't tell what I meant and instead went down a rabbit hole of quoting yourself.

I said "where is more coming from"?  In response to you saying " How are we more optimistic about a 22 year old catcher in AAA making a transition to a new position in time to retain prospect status than a 19 year old shortstop in A+?".

As you can see I even bolded the word more.    

My comment had nothing to do with your opinion of Cisco's prospect status.  It had to do with your assertion that others are saying that Sisco will be able to make a position transfer more easily.  I don't recall anyone saying that.

I do think you are WAY too hung up on the fact they haven't moved Mountcastle yet.  He isn't a shortstop so you should probably stop acting like he is one when discussing his ability to play other positions.  He isn't even the shortstop that Schoop was.  He is less of a shortstop than Sisco is a catcher.

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