Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
interloper

Just sell in the offseason instead with the new GM

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

I agree.

Here lies the rub to me: Duquette made some savvy trades earlier in his tenure. But since then they've largely been poor. To that end, I'm not so sure I'm confident in a half-interested Duquette who hasn't shown a knack for keeping a well stocked farm system (aside from signing/acquiring mostly AAAA talent).

I think the best case scenario is that the Orioles do the following:

  • Hang tight on to Britton until he proves he's healthy and effective. 
  • Trade Seth Smith
  • Trade Welington Castillo (he has a $7m player option for 2018 and he most likely will not exercise it)
  • Trade Brad Brach

In the offseason:

  • Fire Duquette. Hire new GM
  • Trade Manny
  • Trade Britton
  • Don't exercise Wade Miley's 2018 option

I'd like for the Orioles to extend Buck at the end of this season. He's one of the best things to happen to Baltimore, he has the respect and admiration of Angelos and he's largely a very capable manager. Yes, there are other better managers out there, but there aren't many. Certainly not many that are available.

 

I don't see DD getting axed. That and who would be your hypotheitcal replacement? I agree on trading smith and Castillo while declining Miley's 2018 option, and I'd try and get rid of Kim too. I'd hold on to Brach, Britton and Machado. ST will be interesting next year with the years Hays, Mountcastle and Mullins have had. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, vab said:

I don't think Duquette can be trusted to handle trading the big pieces, especially Machado and Britton so I have advocated firing him after the season and letting the new GM do those deals. Now the Smiths and Castillos - he can do that type of deal and I really think they need to shop O'Day immediately to move him and that contract before he hits the DL again. 

What makes you think Duquette can't trade the big pieces?  He got two great years out of Jose Canseco in Boston for Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz.  He turned Heathcliff Slocumb into Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.  He acquired Pedro Martinez for only Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. Greg Miller and Adam Everett were turned into Carl Everett, and he got an all-star closer in Ugueth Urbina for Tomo Ohka and Rich Rundles.  

With the Orioles, he's made a lot of smaller trades, but we've won our share.  Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom is one, as was Lindstrom for Joe Saunders later that season.  Brach for some random minor leaguer was a big win.  Mortgaging Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller was a big win, and a move you do all of the time.   Trumbo for Clevenger was also a big-time win.

I can not hold the Arrieta trade against Duquette, he was ruined by the previous regime before Duquette ever interviewed with Angelos.  However, the trade of Josh Hader was horrid, and the jury is still out on Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra.  

His record with the Orioles and Red Sox speak of a very qualified executive in my opinion.  However, the executive also reports to the owner, and is ultimately going to do what the owner wants.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

What makes you think Duquette can't trade the big pieces?  He got two great years out of Jose Canseco in Boston for Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz.  He turned Heathcliff Slocumb into Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.  He acquired Pedro Martinez for only Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. Greg Miller and Adam Everett were turned into Carl Everett, and he got an all-star closer in Ugueth Urbina for Tomo Ohka and Rich Rundles.  

With the Orioles, he's made a lot of smaller trades, but we've won our share.  Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom is one, as was Lindstrom for Joe Saunders later that season.  Brach for some random minor leaguer was a big win.  Mortgaging Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller was a big win, and a move you do all of the time.   Trumbo for Clevenger was also a big-time win.

I can not hold the Arrieta trade against Duquette, he was ruined by the previous regime before Duquette ever interviewed with Angelos.  However, the trade of Josh Hader was horrid, and the jury is still out on Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra.  

His record with the Orioles and Red Sox speak of a very qualified executive in my opinion.  However, the executive also reports to the owner, and is ultimately going to do what the owner wants.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Nevermore said:

My huge problem with Duquette is the fact that the farm system has been gutted. 

How would Brady be as a gm?

 

Honestly, the farm system was gutted before he even got here, and has been an issue year after year, executive after executive.  Duquette did draft Gausman and Harvey, as well as Mountcastle, Sedlock and Hall this year.  What has hurt was the team giving up compensation picks for Ubaldo and Gallardo, as well as Cruz the same year we picked up Ubaldo.  Picking at the back of the draft every year also hurts, and with his track record drafting in Boston, I fail to believe that all of the drafting is on him.  

As far as what minor leaguers he has brought up, the list is small- Machado, Schoop, Gausman, Bundy, Givens, Joseph, Mancini, and a few other arms throughout the years.  

To put things into perspective, the Cubs and Red Sox have traded away that kind of talent since the start of the 2016 off-season, and they likely still have better farm system rankings than we do despite all of those moves.  

Duquette has traded a lot, but if I recall, the only pieces who have come of consequence were Eduardo Rodriguez, Josh Hader and Zach Davies.  Throw in Arrieta and Strop as well.  I don't think this really counts as gutting the farm system.  

At some point, we also need to look at the player development system, which includes a lot of names that have been with the Orioles for years in a variety of roles.  

Edited by ThomasTomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

What makes you think Duquette can't trade the big pieces?  He got two great years out of Jose Canseco in Boston for Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz.  He turned Heathcliff Slocumb into Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.  He acquired Pedro Martinez for only Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. Greg Miller and Adam Everett were turned into Carl Everett, and he got an all-star closer in Ugueth Urbina for Tomo Ohka and Rich Rundles.  

With the Orioles, he's made a lot of smaller trades, but we've won our share.  Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom is one, as was Lindstrom for Joe Saunders later that season.  Brach for some random minor leaguer was a big win.  Mortgaging Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller was a big win, and a move you do all of the time.   Trumbo for Clevenger was also a big-time win.

I can not hold the Arrieta trade against Duquette, he was ruined by the previous regime before Duquette ever interviewed with Angelos.  However, the trade of Josh Hader was horrid, and the jury is still out on Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra.  

His record with the Orioles and Red Sox speak of a very qualified executive in my opinion.  However, the executive also reports to the owner, and is ultimately going to do what the owner wants.  

I kind of agree.  Presumably it's much easier to trade away good veterans when you're the GM of a loser than it is to trade for good veterans when you're the GM of a contender -- which is why it's unfair to compare Duquette to Andy Macphail -- like everyone always does.  Duquette made some very good moves with Boston, just prior to and just the contender level.  But it does feel like Duquette's run of good luck with trades in Boston has turned on him here.  And it does feel like some of his trades and signings here have been reckless bordering on desperate.  Still, I think the specter of Angelos has made it a lot harder for him to do here (at least the last couple of years) than what he did in Boston.  I blame the recklessness more on the Angelos factor than on Duquette's overall skills.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CheeryO said:

I kind of agree.  Presumably it's much easier to trade away good veterans when you're the GM of a loser than it is to trade for good veterans when you're the GM of a contender -- which is why it's unfair to compare Duquette to Andy Macphail -- like everyone always does.  Duquette made some very good moves with Boston, just prior to and just the contender level.  But it does feel like Duquette's run of good luck with trades in Boston has turned on him here.  And it does feel like some of his trades and signings here have been reckless bordering on desperate.  Still, I think the specter of Angelos has made it a lot harder for him to do here (at least the last couple of years) than what he did in Boston.  I blame the recklessness more on the Angelos factor than on Duquette's overall skills.

For what it's worth, I always thought MacPhail underachieved for what we brought him in for, and again, the lack of improving the farm system is a point of contention for another Oriole executive.  It also doesn't help that Angeles rules with a much more iron fist than the near-autonomy given to him by the Yawkey Trust.  Certain things that keep popping up in our recent history- such as the lack of ever having an elite farm system, lack of focus on international free agency/development, and a payroll that almost always ranks between 10-20 in the league- that obviously point to someone having an inordinate amount of control over things.  

Edited by ThomasTomasz
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the O's would have been better off if Dan had left for Toronto.  He does have a knack for sacrificing the minors to make very small upgrades to the major league team.  For those that say that all teams do that, the Dodgers and Red Sox farms consistently produce major league talent and still have top farm systems while having winning teams. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/14/2017 at 8:25 PM, ThomasTomasz said:

What makes you think Duquette can't trade the big pieces?  He got two great years out of Jose Canseco in Boston for Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz.  He turned Heathcliff Slocumb into Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek.  He acquired Pedro Martinez for only Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. Greg Miller and Adam Everett were turned into Carl Everett, and he got an all-star closer in Ugueth Urbina for Tomo Ohka and Rich Rundles.  

With the Orioles, he's made a lot of smaller trades, but we've won our share.  Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom is one, as was Lindstrom for Joe Saunders later that season.  Brach for some random minor leaguer was a big win.  Mortgaging Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller was a big win, and a move you do all of the time.   Trumbo for Clevenger was also a big-time win.

I can not hold the Arrieta trade against Duquette, he was ruined by the previous regime before Duquette ever interviewed with Angelos.  However, the trade of Josh Hader was horrid, and the jury is still out on Zach Davies for Gerardo Parra.  

His record with the Orioles and Red Sox speak of a very qualified executive in my opinion.  However, the executive also reports to the owner, and is ultimately going to do what the owner wants.  

How on Earth is the jury still out on the Davies for Parra trade?

  • Parra with the O's: .237/.268/.357 - .625, -1.1 WAR
  • Davies with the Brewers: 4.32 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 25-13, 3.2 WAR

The Brewers won that trade in spades. 

The other issue here is that there is absolutely *no* impact starting pitching depth in the minors. The fact that the O's had to try Aquino, Asher and even Tyler Wilson as a starter...and were going to start Mike Wright had he not gotten hurt...and are now considering Richard Bleier speaks volumes.

There is literally nobody in the minors that can be called up and be considered as anything more than cannon fodder. 

Basically all of the meaningful depth has been wiped out by Duquette. And draft picks that could have replenished them have been traded away in salary dumps or given away because of the terrible signings of Gallardo and Ubaldo.

Listen, I'll give credit where credit is due to Duquette. He turned around the major league club by making them a perennial winner (and a couple times a real contender). But he did it 100% at the expense of the farm system. We've been saying for awhile that the window was shutting. And now it's shut. 

$170m payroll and this piss poor performance? At some point you need to hold the GM accountable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DD caught a tiger by the tail in 2012.  He never expected this team to be good.  He did everything he could to juggle the plates to keep this unexpected gift going.  But the problem with that was: 
1.  It wasn't a team with a strong foundation, meaning we weren't a team you looked at and said, "Wow.  They have the young pieces to be good for a long time."  We were a team that was going against the analytics. 
2.  We didn't have the farm.  So when you don't have the kind of nucleus on your team you need for a long term run, you're going to need to need have roster supplementing from your minors.  We didn't have the system for that. 

In essence, we were a team that somehow stumbled into magic, but still actually needed a rebuild in terms of the minors.  DD had no idea how to do that.  Maybe no GM would have been able to do that.  So instead he Chinese tortured to death the minors.  Giving up international slots, draft picks, and prospects, to make incremental supplemental moves that usually were marginal improvements at best.  We didn't win it all during that short window, and now the house of sand the team was built on has fallen apart, and we are still where we were when we hired DD:  in need of a complete rebuild. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...