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Reboulet'sStache

2017-2018 College Football Predictions

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I guess it's possible for a 2-loss team from a really good conference to make the playoff.   You could probably come up with a scenario, maybe for an Auburn or Ohio State ending with two losses.   But a lot would have to happen.

Realistically, though, you have to be a 1 loss team or better to make the playoff, and I would argue that a Group of Five conference team would HAVE to be undefeated to even have a chance.

So using those parameters, here are the remaining 0 or 1 loss teams, excluding 1 loss teams like Marshall and Toledo from G5 conferences, that are still somewhat alive for the playoff.   Obviously some of these teams have tough roads to make it:

UNDEFEATED FROM POWER CONFERENCES (7)

Penn State, Miami, TCU, Wisconsin, Penn State, Alabama, Georgia

UNDEFEATED FROM GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES (2)

Central Florida, South Florida

ONE LOSS FROM POWER CONFERENCES (9)

Washington, Washington State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson

ONE LOSS MAJOR INDEPENDENT (1)

Notre Dame

 

So that's 19 teams that still have some semblance of a shot.   And LOTS of them play each other the rest of the way, there isn't a weekend left in the season when at least two of these 19 teams aren't facing off.   Elimination games galore.

Should be fun!

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The title of this thread is college football prediction. So I will make a few. Penn state will beat the Buckeyes and I hope I'm wrong. Next ND will beat NCS but not by much. UWV over OK state. Here's my upset pick. Iowa state over TCU.

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On 10/27/2017 at 5:53 PM, mrbig1 said:

The title of this thread is college football prediction. So I will make a few. Penn state will beat the Buckeyes and I hope I'm wrong. Next ND will beat NCS but not by much. UWV over OK state. Here's my upset pick. Iowa state over TCU.

Well your last one was a good call. 

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Penn State's coaches went into a conservative shell in the second half.  Played not to lose when they could have put the game away.
You also saw the difference between a team that probably has a 15 to 20 recruiting average over the last 4 years, and a team with a top 2 recruiting class ranking over that time.  Ohio State just sent waves of talent at Penn State. 

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ESPN projects Notre Dame and Ohio state to be in the top 4 of the CFP when it is released on Tuesday. If the CFP is looking for money then they found it in these two.

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On 10/24/2017 at 5:48 PM, SteveA said:

I guess it's possible for a 2-loss team from a really good conference to make the playoff.   You could probably come up with a scenario, maybe for an Auburn or Ohio State ending with two losses.   But a lot would have to happen.

Realistically, though, you have to be a 1 loss team or better to make the playoff, and I would argue that a Group of Five conference team would HAVE to be undefeated to even have a chance.

So using those parameters, here are the remaining 0 or 1 loss teams, excluding 1 loss teams like Marshall and Toledo from G5 conferences, that are still somewhat alive for the playoff.   Obviously some of these teams have tough roads to make it:

UNDEFEATED FROM POWER CONFERENCES (6)

Miami, TCUWisconsin, Penn State, Alabama, Georgia

UNDEFEATED FROM GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES (2)

Central Florida, South Florida

ONE LOSS FROM POWER CONFERENCES (9)

Washington, Washington State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson

ONE LOSS MAJOR INDEPENDENT (1)

Notre Dame

 

So that's 19 teams that still have some semblance of a shot.   And LOTS of them play each other the rest of the way, there isn't a weekend left in the season when at least two of these 19 teams aren't facing off.   Elimination games galore.

Should be fun!

A few have been whittled off the list:

UNDEFEATED FROM POWER CONFERENCES (4)

Miami, Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia

   -- Penn State and TCU fell off this list

UNDEFEATED FROM GROUP OF FIVE CONFERENCES (1)

Central Florida

   -- South Florida feel off this list

ONE LOSS FROM POWER CONFERENCES (9)

Washington, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech,Clemson, Penn State, TCU

   -- Penn State and TCU fell down to this list;  Washington State and NC State fell off this list

ONE LOSS MAJOR INDEPENDENT (1)

Notre Dame

 

So unless a two loss team manages to put together enough of a case to get a playoff spot, the pool of potential national champions is down to 15.

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Alabama is a lock unless they lose 2 games. 
Georgia is a lock unless they lose 2 games. 

ND is a lock if they win out.
Miami is a lock if they win out.
Ohio State is a lock if they win out. 
Wisconsin is a lock, although undeserving, if they win out.

Clemson, Oklahoma, Penn State in some order are next if they win out.

After that it gets interesting.

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3 hours ago, Reboulet'sStache said:

Although I'd love to see ND win out and get left out because it would almost force them to have to join the ACC as a full time member.  Which would usher in the 4 Super Conferences.

Why should ND share it's money with the ACC?  First Alabama and Georgia and Miami and ND have to play each other. So the loser of those two games will be watching TV. I think the big 12  and the pac 10 will be left out in the cold. We may have the SEC, ACC, big 10 and ND.

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3 hours ago, mrbig1 said:

Why should ND share it's money with the ACC?  First Alabama and Georgia and Miami and ND have to play each other. So the loser of those two games will be watching TV. I think the big 12  and the pac 10 will be left out in the cold. We may have the SEC, ACC, big 10 and ND.

1. I couldn't care less what ND does per se.  If there is some way to form the Super Conferences with ND being cast away to the island of misfit teams with all the rest of G5 and indy schools, and gets to keep its tv money, that's fine by me.  My motivation for ND being left out has nothing to do with ND.  As I stated, it's so the Super Conferences will form.  If ND gets left out, it will be because it's not in a conference and didn't play a conference title game.  At that point ND will have no choice but to join the ACC.  Which will create a massive domino effect.

2.  I know those teams play each other.  That's my point.  They control their own fate.  Them getting in the playoffs is not dependent upon anybody.   But your wrong about them.  You're absolutely certifiable if you think the loser of Alabama-UGA will be "watching tv" if that is their only loss.  Especially if it's Alabama.  Bama will be allowed a loss.  UGA too.  A one loss UGA either lost to somebody but beat Bama in SEC title game.  Or beat everybody and their only loss is to Bama in SEC title game.  They aren't getting left out in either scenario unless Bama boat races them in SEC title game.

ND, yeah, they can't lose.  Because that will be two losses for them.  Miami could lose to ND and get in.  But at that point they would be just another team in the long string of "if-then" situations, where you hold your breath and hope your name is announced on selection day.

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There are four playoff spots.   The teams that control their own fate, in my opinion are:

1.  Bama-UGA winner in SEC Title game.

2.  Bama-UGA loser in SEC Title game, providing that is their only loss.

3.  OSU-Wisky winner in Big Ten Title game, providing OSU doesn't have two losses going into the game and Wisky doesn't have a loss going into the game.

4.  Miami-ND, providing neither loses this week and the winner wins out afterwards. 

If all of the above scenarios happen, I don't think there is much anybody else can do to get in.  Maybe OU over ND if ND wins out.  But I think ND's name recognition and the momentum they are creating due to their schedule this last month and a half, will be too much for OU to overcome. 

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Has Alabama even played a top 25 team this year? There's just way too much Bama love. Wake me up when they play somebody.

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