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Dan places the blame for losing year squarely on the starters

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Dan Duquette talked to Dan Connolly about what when wrong this year.    Dan didn't say a lot if the editorializing is taken out of the article but what Dan did do was to place the blame for the bad year on the underperformance  by Jimenez, Miley, Tillman and Gausman's 1st half.   While  this is not earth shaking news it does clarify where Dan's head is on the subject.  In my mind it does not shift the blame away from Dan himself.

Dan signed Jimenez for 4 years.

Dan acquired Miley mid 2016,

Dan knew about Tillman's injury in December and didn't make a move that countered his possible poor season

Dan acquired Hellickson and though that move didn't help the O's win, it may have helped give Bundy some needed rest.

This in not to say that Dan did nothing.  He just did nothing that worked.    He did acquire Aquino, Asher, Ynoa, Nuno, Bleier, Verrett, Castro, Bleier, Gunkel and Lee.  He did keep Wilson and Wright. All moves to try to boost the rotation if something went wrong.  But yet when things did go wrong none of these pitchers were in a position to help.   Dan's normal mode is to stay with Plan A until mid season and then move to Plan B.  Last year Wright and Wilson were replaced to Bundy and Miley in the rotation.   That worked well enough for 89 wins.   This year none of the depth moves stepped forward.  In mid season Ynoa was just beginning to turn it around.  His 2nd half surge may help next year but he was not positioned to help in July. Buck thought that Castro  and Bleier were needed in the pen more than the rotation.

The one pitcher that Dan didn't keep - Parker Bridwell, is the one the had a good year for the Angels.   So it appears Dan tried to have a Plan B in place but nothing worked.

Dan's 5 years of turning around the O's and keeping them .500 or better speaks loudly.  He has done a lot for the O's.  One losing season does not wash away those successes or the good judgement that made them happen.  What it does show is that when Dan has a bad year, so do the O's.   It happened in 2015 and it happened again  this year.

What might be the outcome for Dan's bad 2017 season is the he might have to wait a year for an extension if he wants one.  

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/09/26/duquette-2018-rotation-dont-know-theyre-going-come-well-good-starting-pitching/

 

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You forgot Davies.

Then again, you also left out Castro, Bleier, Beckham etc. 

If two of Gausman, Tillman, and Ubaldo pitch to their career norms, we are probably in the playoffs and possibly winning the division. Unfortunately DD decided to keep his cards and lost on all three.

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Telling how he blames the pitchers that are (mostly) being shown the door and not Trumbo and Davis.

They surely had down years, but on a macro level, the offense performed about as expected.    Some guys had good years and others had bad ones, but the overall offensive performance wasn't far from what anyone would have expected.     The starting pitching on the other hand was way worse than expected, even though expectations weren't that high to begin with.    

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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You forgot Davies.

Then again, you also left out Castro, Bleier, Beckham etc. 

If two of Gausman, Tillman, and Ubaldo pitch to their career norms, we are probably in the playoffs and possibly winning the division. Unfortunately DD decided to keep his cards and lost on all three.

Good point on Castro and Bleier.  I added them. Beckham is a position player and that was not Dan's focus.

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17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They surely had down years, but on a macro level, the offense performed about as expected.    Some guys had good years and others had bad ones, but the overall offensive performance wasn't far from what anyone would have expected.     The starting pitching on the other hand was way worse than expected, even though expectations weren't that high to begin with.    

-.4 rWAR combined.  34.5 million combined.

Just because Schoop had a good year doesn't excuse Davis and Trumbo. 

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20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

-.4 rWAR combined.  34.5 million combined.

Just because Schoop had a good year doesn't excuse Davis and Trumbo. 

Obviously.     But I'm not looking to "excuse" anyone.    Just saying from 40,000 feet, starting pitching was the problem and that's what I'd expect Duquette to say if asked.  

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Obviously.     But I'm not looking to "excuse" anyone.    Just saying from 40,000 feet, starting pitching was the problem and that's what I'd expect Duquette to say if asked.  

I'd expect Dan to not mention someone under contract for five more seasons.

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Here's something I don't understand about the pitchers who have gotten away and become successful starters elsewhere.

Let's say the Orioles are trying to trade for a veteran to shore up their drive for the post-season, and they offer not-ML-ready pitching prospect A in an even-up deal. The team they're talking with says, "Our guy is available, but not for A -- you must be kidding. We want pitching prospect B, C or D, or E plus a AA first baseman who's blocked by your brigade of first sackers."

Although we don't know the details of the trade talks, the Orioles appear to have made a number of bad decisions in these and similar situations. It's fair to blame Duquette for those decisions (as opposed to the Davis and Trumbo contracts and the decision not to trade or extend Manny) since he almost certainly made the final calls. (I doubt the Angeloses were involved in these things, and I have no reason to think Brady was, though that's possible.) 

What I don't know is how these bad decisions get made. I would think Duquette, or anyone in his position, talks regularly to pitching instructors and to coaches and managers throughout the system -- or maybe has someone do that for him -- and relies pretty heavily on their evaluations as to who does and doesn't have the potential to be a successful ML starter. But maybe Duquette has relied primarily on his own observations and assessments, or on those made by his staff or Oriole coaches. Does anyone know how that's been done, with the Orioles or more generally among ML teams.

The Orioles have a poor record of developing pitchers who can command (and, in some cases, control) a sufficient range of pitches to blossom into successful ML starters. Have the same coaches and instructors who have been unsuccessful in developing starters done a bad job in evaluating which ones are likely to succeed as ML starters (and should be retained and given a chance to advance) and which ones are less likely to do that (and can be traded away)? Just asking. 

 

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Dan's 5 years of turning around the O's and keep them .500 over better speaks loudly.  He has done a lot for the O's.  One losing season does not wash away those successes or the good judgement that made them happen.  What it does show is that when Dan has a bad year, so do the O's.   It happened in 2015 and it happened again  this year.

Well, I have posted before that Brian Cashman's job is to get the NYY to the playoffs regardless of his payroll and the bad contracts.  So, I have to say, "Yes, DD should be recognized for the recent winning of the organization."

That said, the fridge was pretty well stocked when DD arrived and I think he has made the overall situation worse with his moves.  That fridge had a superstar 3B in the minors, an all-star closer in the minors, and an all-star 2B in the minors.  It also had JJ Hardy and Adam Jones on good contracts and pre-arb producers in Chris Davis and Chris Tillman.  Lest we forget, that fridge had JakeA, Zach Davies, Givens, EdRod and Hader.  DD has pissed away two supplemental first round draft picks to shed two relievers - one of whom he had signed just a few months earlier - and forfeited two first round picks to sign Jimenez and Gallardo.  DD also tried to sign Grant Balfour but was saved by the medical staff.  Not getting in a pissing contest here, I fully acknowledge DD has made some strong moves, but DD has wasted an enormous amount of assets.

Obviously, there are an infinite number of paths a GM starting day 1 where DD started could have gone.  I am sure someone could have really **** the bed and dealt Manny and/or Schoop away,  but (understanding that it is a hypothetical situation being proposed) I believe DD's performance would rate in the bottom 20%-40% of possible outcomes given what he started with.

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18 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

 

That said, the fridge was pretty well stocked when DD arrived and I think he has made the overall situation worse with his moves.  That fridge had a superstar 3B in the minors, an all-star closer in the minors, and an all-star 2B in the minors.  It also had JJ Hardy and Adam Jones on good contracts and pre-arb producers in Chris Davis and Chris Tillman.  

I won't debate your litany of the good things Dan inherited, but to be clear, he's the one who signed Jones to his long term deal.     That's by far the best of Dan's long-term deals, so let's at least give him credit for that.

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I'm with Hoosiers on the evaluation of Duquette. He seems to think he has to make moves just to justify that he is doing his job. Like signing the softball player, pitchers from independent leagues and all the Rule 5 guys. Has he helped the team with his trades? MacPhail certainly did.

As to who makes the evaluations of the players involved in trades, we may never know. But since at Duquette's hiring he was praised as a great evaluator of talent, I would suspect he decided whether the trades should be made. 

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

You forgot Davies.

Then again, you also left out Castro, Bleier, Beckham etc. 

If two of Gausman, Tillman, and Ubaldo pitch to their career norms, we are probably in the playoffs and possibly winning the division. Unfortunately DD decided to keep his cards and lost on all three.

Winning the division?  lol now that's funny.

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