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Dan places the blame for losing year squarely on the starters

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

They surely had down years, but on a macro level, the offense performed about as expected.    Some guys had good years and others had bad ones, but the overall offensive performance wasn't far from what anyone would have expected.     The starting pitching on the other hand was way worse than expected, even though expectations weren't that high to begin with.    

That's may be true.  I think I expected a little more from the offense than it delivered.  What was unusual, and harmful to the overall effort, was that the two biggest offensive underperformers, relative to at least my expectations, could not be benched, traded, sent down to the minors or released. 

I would add that the bullpen underperformed expectations, largely due to the extra load put on them by the starters pitching not only poorly but also briefly. 

The defense was not good. I think I expected better, especially at SS, but I also feared we'd see more of Trumbo in the OF than we did, so maybe the D came pretty close to reasonable expectations (as distinct from mine).

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The O's are probably in the top 25% of team in wins over the last 6 years under Dan as GM.   No matter how he did it....he did it.   I don't think you firing a guy with the level on accomplishment over one bad year.      But its not a year that earns a GM an extension IMO.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The O's are probably in the top 25% of team in wins over the last 6 years under Dan as GM.   No matter how he did it....he did it.   I don't think you firing a guy with the level on accomplishment over one bad year.      But its not a year that earns a GM an extension IMO.

I can't agree with this logic.    You have to look at what he inherited and what he's done.    If I was preparing the case to fire Duquette, it would look a lot like what Hoosiers wrote.   

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1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Winning the division?  lol now that's funny.

I don't think it is preposterous. Tillman and Ubaldo were absolutely terrible. Tillman and Gausman were both coming off of 4 WAR seasons. Ubaldo was coming off 0 WAR but 2.6 WAR the year before. Tillman was -6 WAR relative to last year, Gausman -2.4, and Ubaldo -2.8 relative to 2015-16. That's 11 WAR and that does not even count Miley, those guys were THAT BAD.

Not only were these guys bad in themselves, but by taking us out of games they put us in position for other teams to use their bullpens and end the game after 6 innings. Let's say that the strategic importance of starting pitching accounts for another couple of wins. 13 more wins would put us at 89 right now just a couple back of the Sox.

Who knows, if we were better at the break we might have gotten more than just Beckham and a trade gets us another couple games...

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51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can't agree with this logic.    You have to look at what he inherited and what he's done.    If I was preparing the case to fire Duquette, it would look a lot like what Hoosiers wrote.   

Sorry you don't agree. It's good logic.

Maybe you will like this better:

Dan took over a team that could not win. Actually had not had a winning record in 14 years because they could not develop pitchers.   He signed Chen and Gonzo.  He traded for Hammel.  In the 2nd half he promote a SS to play 3B out of AA ball.  Promoted him ahead of schedule.  The results?  The O's had the first winning record in 14 years winning 93 games.   That's right 93 games.   And made the playoffs.    He took a team that could not get out of its own way for 14 years and made it a playoff team.   That Amazzzzzing.

The next year the O's are struggling in 3rd place 5 games back in July so he makes two trades.   He gets a solid but no spectacular  starter in Scott Feldman for two guys  with 7.00 plus ERAs that are not helping the team.  Then he trades for starter Bud Norris for two minor leagues and a competitive balance pick.  One of player  is in low A ball after being a 19th round pick.  So he gets two major leaguers to help the team for guys that were not.  Result: another winning season with 85 wins.

The next year he adds All-Star Nelson Cruz for 8m dollars. Trades minor league Delvin Jones for Brad Brach, who later becomes an All-Star.  Bud Norris win 15 and the team wins the division with 96 wins.  What else is there to say.  Outstanding Job.  He wins Executive of the Year.

Two years later he trades for Mark Trumbo who leads the AL in Homer with 47 to go with 108 RBI.  He also adds Pedro Alvarez and the team slugs its way to a wild card berth in spite of poor pitching.

So, Executive of the Year,  Division winner, added pitching when needed.  Added lead leaguers in homers and  an All-Stars.     Go find me someone with a better resume then that who wants to work for Peter Angelos.

 

 

 

 

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Duquette put together *1* above average starting rotation in his 6 year tenure. He was a disaster in that regard. How can somebody do so well with Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yin Chen....and then completely and utterly whiff on Miley, Gallardo, Ubaldo and every other random starter he signed off the scrap heap since....is beyond me. It leaves me with little to no faith that he can do anything meaningful in 2018. If not for Gausman or Bundy...could you imagine how awful these last few years would have been? There is NO impact depth in the minors. It is so barren for starters that Ubaldo literally lasted this entire season.

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24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sorry you don't agree. It's good logic.

Maybe you will like this better:

Dan took over a team that could not win. Actually had not had a winning record in 14 years because they could not develop pitchers.   He signed Chen and Gonzo.  He traded for Hammel.  In the 2nd half he promote a SS to play 3B out of AA ball.  Promoted him ahead of schedule.  The results?  The O's had the first winning record in 14 years winning 93 games.   That's right 93 games.   And made the playoffs.    He took a team that could not get out of its own way for 14 years and made it a playoff team.   That Amazzzzzing.

The next year the O's are struggling in 3rd place 5 games back in July so he makes two trades.   He gets a solid but no spectacular  starter in Scott Feldman for two guys  with 7.00 plus ERAs that are not helping the team.  Then he trades for starter Bud Norris for two minor leagues and a competitive balance pick.  One of player  is in low A ball after being a 19th round pick.  So he gets two major leaguers to help the team for guys that were not.  Result: another winning season with 85 wins.

The next year he adds All-Star Nelson Cruz for 8m dollars. Trades minor league Delvin Jones for Brad Brach, who later becomes an All-Star.  Bud Norris win 15 and the team wins the division with 96 wins.  What else is there to say.  Outstanding Job.  He wins Executive of the Year.

Two years later he trades for Mark Trumbo who leads the AL in Homer with 47 to go with 108 RBI.  He also adds Pedro Alvarez and the team slugs its way to a wild card berth in spite of poor pitching.

So, Executive of the Year,  Division winner, added pitching when needed.  Added lead leaguers in homers and  an All-Stars.     Go find me someone with a better resume then that who wants to work for Peter Angelos.

 

 

 

 

That was the same Gonzo he later cut in spring training to save a few bucks right?  How did that move work out?

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16 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Duquette put together *1* above average starting rotation in his 6 year tenure. He was a disaster in that regard. How can somebody do so well with Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yin Chen....and then completely and utterly whiff on Miley, Gallardo, Ubaldo and every other random starter he signed off the scrap heap since....is beyond me. It leaves me with little to no faith that he can do anything meaningful in 2018. If not for Gausman or Bundy...could you imagine how awful these last few years would have been? There is NO impact depth in the minors. It is so barren for starters that Ubaldo literally lasted this entire season.

Kind of like when Dan took over.     We have to watch to see if he does it again.

The O's payroll is for next year is about 120m after signing Tillman to an incentive deal and after raises to current players.   The team ended the year with a 170m payroll.   That mean Dan may have 50m to go find pitching.

1B  Davis 23m
2B  Schoop - 8m  = 31m - option
SS Beckham - 3m = 34m - option
3B  Manny - 20m  = 54mm  Extended 10/300m with an 5m year opt out.  O's make an exception for Manny.
C Joseph - 3M = 57mm - option
DH Trumbo - 13.5m = 59m
LF  Mancini - .545m = 59.545m - option
RF  Hays - .545m = 60.09m   - option
 CF Jones - 17m = 77.09m
 BC Wynns - .545m  = 77.635m  - option
OF Gentry .85m = 78.485m 
UIF  ? .545m = 79.03m
OF Santander- .545m  = 79.575m - option after 44 days
SP1 Bundy -  1.8m  =  81.375m
SP2 Gausman - 6m = 87.375m  
SP3 Castro  .545m =  87.92m 
SP4?
SP5 Tillman  - 1m with 5m in incentives/150k per start = 88.92m  
RP1 Britton  - 13m  = 101.92m 
RP2 Givens -  .56m  = 102.48m -option
RP3 O’Day -  9m = 111.48m
RP4 Yacabonis  - .545m = 112.025m -option
RP5 Hart -   .55m = 112.575m - option
RP6 Ynoa - .545m  = 113.12m
RP7  Bleier - .545m = 113.665m - option

Hardy buyout 2m
Miley buyout .5m


Total 116.165m with incentives to 121.165m
 

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35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That was the same Gonzo he later cut in spring training to save a few bucks right?  How did that move work out?

We are not going to like every move that any GM makes.  You can cite that one and a dozen others that we will not like.  But it does not change the resume of achievement that Dan has with the O's.

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Dan Duquette talked to Dan Connolly about what when wrong this year.    Dan didn't say a lot if the editorializing is taken out of the article but what Dan did do was to place the blame for the bad year on the underperformance  by Jimenez, Miley, Tillman and Gausman's 1st half.   While  this is not earth shaking news it does clarify where Dan's head is on the subject.  In my mind it does not shift the blame away from Dan himself.

Dan signed Jimenez for 4 years.

Dan acquired Miley mid 2016,

Dan knew about Tillman's injury in December and didn't make a move that countered his possible poor season

Dan acquired Hellickson and though that move didn't help the O's win, it may have helped give Bundy some needed rest.

This in not to say that Dan did nothing.  He just did nothing that worked.    He did acquire Aquino, Asher, Ynoa, Nuno, Bleier, Verrett, Castro, Bleier, Gunkel and Lee.  He did keep Wilson and Wright. All moves to try to boost the rotation if something went wrong.  But yet when things did go wrong none of these pitchers were in a position to help.   Dan's normal mode is to stay with Plan A until mid season and then move to Plan B.  Last year Wright and Wilson were replaced to Bundy and Miley in the rotation.   That worked well enough for 89 wins.   This year none of the depth moves stepped forward.  In mid season Ynoa was just beginning to turn it around.  His 2nd half surge may help next year but he was not positioned to help in July. Buck thought that Castro  and Bleier were needed in the pen more than the rotation.

The one pitcher that Dan didn't keep - Parker Bridwell, is the one the had a good year for the Angels.   So it appears Dan tried to have a Plan B in place but nothing worked.

Dan's 5 years of turning around the O's and keep them .500 over better speaks loudly.  He has done a lot for the O's.  One losing season does not wash away those successes or the good judgement that made them happen.  What it does show is that when Dan has a bad year, so do the O's.   It happened in 2015 and it happened again  this year.

What might be the outcome for Dan's bad 2017 season is the he might have to wait a year for an extension if he wants one.  

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/09/26/duquette-2018-rotation-dont-know-theyre-going-come-well-good-starting-pitching/

 

Blame the starters does he? He is the one to blame. He is the one that signed them.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

We are not going to like every move that any GM makes.  You can cite that one and a dozen others that we will not like.  But it does not change the resume of achieve that Dan has with the O's.

Yes it does.  He dumped Gonzo to save a few bucks and probably cost the 2016 team home field in the WC as an added side bonus.  His resume includes this team and the contracts he handed out for years to come.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I won't debate your litany of the good things Dan inherited, but to be clear, he's the one who signed Jones to his long term deal.     That's by far the best of Dan's long-term deals, so let's at least give him credit for that.

I stand corrected regarding AJ's contract.  Thank you.

AJ was in the organization and was looking to stay in Bmore.  DD negotiated a good contract.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Kind of like when Dan took over.     We have to watch to see if he does it again.

The O's payroll is for next year is about 120m after signing Tillman to an incentive deal and after raises to current players.   The team ended the year with a 170m payroll.   That mean Dan may have 50m to go find pitching.

1B  Davis 23m
2B  Schoop - 8m  = 31m - option
SS Beckham - 3m = 34m - optionlasdkf
3B  Manny - 20m  = 54mm  Extended 10/300m with an 5m year opt out.  O's make an exception for Manny.
C Joseph - 3M = 57mm - option
DH Trumbo - 13.5m = 59m
LF  Mancini - .545m = 59.545m - option
RF  Hays - .545m = 60.09m   - option
 CF Jones - 17m = 77.09m
 BC Wynns - .545m  = 77.635m  - option
OF Gentry .85m = 78.485m 
UIF  ? .545m = 79.03m
OF Santander- .545m  = 79.575m - option after 44 days
SP1 Bundy -  1.8m  =  81.375m
SP2 Gausman - 6m = 87.375m  
SP3 Castro  .545m =  87.92m 
SP4?
SP5 Tillman  - 1m with 5m in incentives/150k per start = 88.92m  
RP1 Britton  - 13m  = 101.92m 
RP2 Givens -  .56m  = 102.48m -option
RP3 O’Day -  9m = 111.48m
RP4 Yacabonis  - .545m = 112.025m -option
RP5 Hart -   .55m = 112.575m - option
RP6 Ynoa - .545m  = 113.12m
RP7  Bleier - .545m = 113.665m - option

Hardy buyout 2m
Miley buyout .5m


Total 116.165m with incentives to 121.165m
 

 

Wow. I like the optimism going forward Wildcard. We'll see what happens.  

I don't like looking at the past decisions DD made because there are many mistakes -- Norris trade, Parra trade, Arrieta, no Manny extension, the Davis contract.

With all those poor decisions, I'm glad there is still room for optimism. 

 

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