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Tony-OH

Orioles 2017 Top 30 Prospects

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6 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Surprises for me are Stewart at 6 and Mullins at 10.  Would have expected them to be flip-flopped, but seems Stewart is preferred based on the platoon splits.  No other big surprises for me.  Maybe Baumann at 12 given that he projects as more of a reliever and is already 22 years old.  I was expecting Bishop and Hanifee ahead of him.  

The only surprising omission for me is Trevor Craport.  Hit for average and moderate power in the NY Penn league which is typically dominated by pitchers, as a 20/21 year old.  So I was expecting him somewhere in the 20-30 range. What are your thoughts on him?

It seems we have a lot of promising relief prospects and current minor league starters who project as relievers, the ladder being a bit disappointing given the current state of the Major League team. 

Good stuff as always, and I look forward to the profiles. 

 

Stewart has more of a chance to be a regular in my opinion than Mullins because of Mullins' weakness against left handed pitching. They are very close though since Mullins has the edge in speed and defense.

Craport for me is one of those guys that will need to prove it up the ladder. I don't see a carrying tool that will enable him to be an everyday third baseman so if he's not that, what is he? 

He's interesting at least and we had some conversations about him, but I'll need to see it at higher levels.

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6 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Also, I forgot to mention Jhon Peluffo.  Held his own in Delmarva as a 19/20 year old and appears to have good control, a plus fastball, and swing and miss changeup.  Seems to have the makings of a potential quality starter. He's gotta be ahead of guys like Dietz and some of those relief prospects (Liranzo, Peralta) as this point I would think, no?

I had Perluffo on my list, but after my discussions with the baseball people I talked to I dropped him. No one really likes him and he doesn't have an out pitch. The splitter doesn't have much depth but there's a chance with his frame that he could pick up velocity. I could have built a case to put him at the back end of the list no doubt though.

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Tony, thanks for the analysis of the prospects.  Great read.   Some questions:

1) What kind of arm does Mullins have?  Is it strong enough to be a starting CF?  

2) Do you think Mullins can beat out Gentry as the 4th OF this spring?   Considering that Jones, Mancini Hays and Santander are on the team to start the season.. Or does Mullins need to begin the year in the minors?

3) Could you talk about lefty John Means?

4) If you think the O's protect Luis Gonzalez then why would he not begin the season at AA?

5) Which of these minor leaguers do you think will not be protected from the Rule 5 draft? Harvey,  Wynns, Hess, Long. Gonzalez, Wilkerson and Means.  Do you think they protect Rifaela?

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20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony, thanks for the analysis of the prospects.  Great read.   Some questions:

1) What kind of arm does Mullins have?  Is it strong enough to be a starting CF?  

2) Do you think Mullins can beat out Gentry as the 4th OF this spring?   Considering that Jones, Mancini Hays and Santander are on the team to start the season.. Or does Mullins need to begin the year in the minors?

3) Could you talk about lefty John Means?

4) If you think the O's protect Luis Gonzalez then why would he not begin the season at AA?

5) Which of these minor leaguers do you think will not be protected from the Rule 5 draft? Harvey,  Wynns, Hess, Long. Gonzalez, Wilkerson and Means.  Do you think they protect Rifaela?

Tony probably has a more info on 4 and 5 than me but I can take a shot at 1,2, and 3.

1. I have his arm as a 45, fringe average. Good enough for center, but not an asset, not enough for RF.  Maybe a little better than Rickard.  

2. I think Mullins is good enough right now to provide more value than Gentry, but his bat is not “ready”. I think he’s got a decent shot at average regular with a chance for more and I wouldn’t want to sacrifice his development for an incremental improvement. 

3. I think I’m the highest on Means of Tony, Chris, and I. At best he’s a lefty with a good feel for pitching and 3 average pitches. The changeup and curveball can miss bats when they are on and he throws strikes.  The fastball is pretty flat and I think he’s always (at least as a starter) going to give up some dingers.  At his best he reminds me of Wade Miley with a lesser breaking ball and better command. Like his rotation mate David Hess he was plagued by inconsistent secondary pitches.

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I really appreciate these. It's been a while since I've felt this positive about the O's system. It may not be t.op heavy but it is deep. I can picture a lot of these guys contributing

Question, if Harvey continues his development and most importantly, stays healthy, in 2018, do you see him becoming our #1 prospect by the end of the year?

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19 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Tony probably has a more info on 4 and 5 than me but I can take a shot at 1,2, and 3.

1. I have his arm as a 45, fringe average. Good enough for center, but not an asset, not enough for RF.  Maybe a little better than Rickard.  

2. I think Mullins is good enough right now to provide more value than Gentry, but his bat is not “ready”. I think he’s got a decent shot at average regular with a chance for more and I wouldn’t want to sacrifice his development for an incremental improvement. 

3. I think I’m the highest on Means of Tony, Chris, and I. At best he’s a lefty with a good feel for pitching and 3 average pitches. The changeup and curveball can miss bats when they are on and he throws strikes.  The fastball is pretty flat and I think he’s always (at least as a starter) going to give up some dingers.  At his best he reminds me of Wade Miley with a lesser breaking ball and better command. Like his rotation mate David Hess he was plagued by inconsistent secondary pitches.

Thanks.

i am just wondering whether Means being a 24 year old lefty starter would be claimed as a reliever if not protected.  Its not so much that I think he is ready to be a starter in the majors.

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The Orioles remade Sedlock's delivery which led to dimished velocity and arm problems?   It's not clear whether he did it or they did it. 

One note on Ryan McKenna.   He struck out 80 times in 243 at bats in the fist half     He cut that down to 48 times in 225 AB's in the 2nd half, so he definitely made progress in the contact department and overall (.621/.810 OPS)  as well.

Maybe Luis Gonzalez is a late bloomer.  Sounds like he has talent.   However, he''ll be 26 and has never pitched above A+ ball.   He also was more effective against RHB's than LHB's last year.   I'd be surprised if the Orioles protected him.   I'd be even more surprised if someone picked him.    He must have qualified as a 6 year minor league FA this offseason and the Orioles resigned him, I guess.

Edited by RZNJ
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Best that has looked in years.  I still want the rebuild that won't happen.  Manny, Britton, and everyone over 30 out for young players.  

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It's unclear from the writeup if Sedlock changed his delivery or if the Orioles minor league coaches "remade" his delivery.   Diminished velocity and forearm/flexor mass injuries.   Rick Peterson is gone.   If it's the Orioles coaches, who made the call?     

 

Luis Gonzalles must look a lot better than the hard numbers.   He'll be 26 soon and hasn't pitched above A+.    He certainly didn't  dominate A+ as a 25 year old either.    His numbers against LH hitters (.241 average) were nothing special as well.    Why are we worried about someone selecting him and keeping him on a roster all year long.    That's a 3 level jump for a guy who didn't dominate A+ ball.

Edited by RZNJ

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Intriguing read. All I will say is 76 games, (only 76) with 13 HR, 19 2B and the most solid defense in the outfield with hamstring challenges (199 TC with 0 errors) and I see the blog pages put him as a 4th outfielder it blows my mind. Buck and the front office guys (sounds like a music group) saying that he is the most big league ready outfielder in their system, including they thought he was going to be the call up in September in 2017. Why would they skip a level with him if they didn't have plans for him?  And somehow he continues to be underrated. There is no doubt in my mind that if Mullins had a full season he would have "easily" been a 20/30 guy, if not a 30/30 guy. I have a feeling that if he was a 1st or 2nd rounder he would be looked at a little more favorable. Giving a plyer the accolades he earned does not take away from other players accomplishments that they achieved. It is going to be an interesting spring. 

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Intriguing read. All I will say is 76 games, (only 76) with 13 HR, 19 2B and the most solid defense in the outfield with hamstring challenges (199 TC with 0 errors) and I see the blog pages put him as a 4th outfielder it blows my mind. Buck and the front office guys (sounds like a music group) saying that he is the most big league ready outfielder in their system, including they thought he was going to be the call up in September in 2017. Why would they skip a level with him if they didn't have plans for him?  And somehow he continues to be underrated. There is no doubt in my mind that if Mullins had a full season he would have "easily" been a 20/30 guy, if not a 30/30 guy. I have a feeling that if he was a 1st or 2nd rounder he would be looked at a little more favorable. Giving a plyer the accolades he earned does not take away from other players accomplishments that they achieved. It is going to be an interesting spring. 

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

.Maybe Luis Gonzalez is a late bloomer.  Sounds like he has talent.   However, he''ll be 26 and has never pitched above A+ ball.   He also was more effective against RHB's than LHB's last year.   I'd be surprised if the Orioles protected him.   I'd be even more surprised if someone picked him.    He must have qualified as a 6 year minor league FA this offseason and the Orioles resigned him, I guess.

Luis Gonzalez was originally signed by the Phillies and subsequently released by them. Because of this he qualifies for free agency after every year unless added to the 40 man roster or signed to a multi year minor league deal. This is because contract renewals are only part of the original signed contract. He would also be eligible for the Rule V draft every year unless on the 40 man roster. It seems as if the Orioles signed him to a contract which includes 2018 already or he would have been a free agent.

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List looks good to me.  Obviously we'll all have some differences.  I've pretty consistently kept Harvey at the top of mine and would again, he's got the highest upside of anyone in the system to me.

Not at all concerned about DL Hall's poor GCL stats in very small sample size, but just worth noting that Harvey has basically breezed through everywhere he's been when healthy.  Let's just hope for a clean year from him next year.

Agree with RZNJ, would like to see some clarification on who changed Sedlock's delivery?  This has to be an area where the Orioles have earned almost no benefit of the doubt.

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