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It's beginning to look a lot like... 1998

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The start of our fall from grace, 14 straight years.

In 98, we still had our bats, but just like 2017, our starters crapped the bed after Erickson and Mussina. Then our key assets walked (Moose, Raffy, Alomar) as we watched Brady, Cal, and BJ age for a few seasons before anyone realized the farm had gone barren.  By then, anything resembling a capable GM had been run out of town, and the O's were at the mercy of Syd, and you all know the rest.

I believe Dan is a capable baseball man, but I wonder if he is hand cuffed at times by directives from above. Our winning ways got away from us quickly after 98 and I see similarities in the current team. Many key pieces will be leaving in the upcoming years. We failed to retain the correct assets or invest in the correct ones.  I just don't understand Angelos' business model; I don't believe Dan does at times either. But to me, he takes his job seriously, evident by how active he is in the market. I believe he is doing the best he can with what he has been given and some his moves have been brilliant.  

However, I believe he walks after the season. The way he talks to the media reminds me of someone who is disgruntled but plays it safe to cover his butt and get by and appease the boss. It took him a long time to get back into baseball, and he had to settle for the Orioles and their owner's directives. He has done well and now he is hoping he can find another Toronto-like offer.

Hopefully, whoever we get next is the start of a string of former players and who-are-these-guys types.

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23 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

 

Hopefully, whoever we get next is the start of a string of former players and who-are-these-guys types.

Is not the start. Sorry.

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What it is looking like to me is more of the same old thing. Sitting on the fence, not really going after the kind of players that could make you competitive. Now don't get me wrong, I want a full rebuild as I think that is the only way to get a Champion in Baltimore. But these guys have stated that they are all in on 2018, but I don't really believe that. What they want to do is fence sit, hope everything breaks right and this team can finish a few games over .500 and keep bringing folks through the turnstiles up into september. And that is the worst track to take imo. I would be all in on a complete rebuild, which I think is the smart track to take. I would be OK if they went all in and made every attempt to actually be competitive in 2018, although I really don't think that is likely regardless of how much they spend. But I am pretty sure we are looking at fence sitting.

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Quote

MILWAUKEE — The collapse of the Baltimore Orioles is reduced to basics by Frank Robinson.

"The talent is not there," said the man who has been all things with the Orioles: player, coach, front-office executive and now manager. "It's that simple.

"It used to be that the Orioles turned out talent on top of talent, then went out and traded for that one particular player.

"When you have to do what they've done in the last few years, when you have to fill four or five positions every year, you're not going to be successful. You're not going to have the same stability and execution."

1

http://articles.latimes.com/1988-04-22/sports/sp-2099_1_orioles-farm-system

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The 1988 Baltimore Orioles season was a season in American baseball. It involved the Orioles finishing 7th in the American League East with a record of 54 wins and 107 losses. The season is remembered for the 0-21 start that lasted from April 4 to 28 to start the Orioles season.[1] Manager Cal Ripken, Sr. was fired after an 0-6 start and replaced by Hall of Famer Frank Robinson. The Orioles won their first game of the year against the Chicago White Sox at Comiskey Park on April 29.[2] The most runs allowed during the season was 15 in a game on June 19 while the most runs scored was 12 in a game on May 31.[1] Orioles owner Edward Bennett Williams died in August of that year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Baltimore_Orioles_season

107 losses. 

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It's beginning to look a lot like December 5th of every offseason around the Orioles Hangout since.... well, since 1998.

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8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gillick left and took the wins with him.

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

The start of our fall from grace, 14 straight years.

In 98, we still had our bats, but just like 2017, our starters crapped the bed after Erickson and Mussina. Then our key assets walked (Moose, Raffy, Alomar) as we watched Brady, Cal, and BJ age for a few seasons before anyone realized the farm had gone barren.  By then, anything resembling a capable GM had been run out of town, and the O's were at the mercy of Syd, and you all know the rest.

I believe Dan is a capable baseball man, but I wonder if he is hand cuffed at times by directives from above. Our winning ways got away from us quickly after 98 and I see similarities in the current team. Many key pieces will be leaving in the upcoming years. We failed to retain the correct assets or invest in the correct ones.  I just don't understand Angelos' business model; I don't believe Dan does at times either. But to me, he takes his job seriously, evident by how active he is in the market. I believe he is doing the best he can with what he has been given and some his moves have been brilliant.  

However, I believe he walks after the season. The way he talks to the media reminds me of someone who is disgruntled but plays it safe to cover his butt and get by and appease the boss. It took him a long time to get back into baseball, and he had to settle for the Orioles and their owner's directives. He has done well and now he is hoping he can find another Toronto-like offer.

Hopefully, whoever we get next is the start of a string of former players and who-are-these-guys types.

Dan was fortunate to get this job and would be the first to tell you that.  All baseball GMs work for demanding billionaires who are likely to give “directives”.  It comes with the job.  He has done some good things but he also walked into a good situation due to the work of his predecessor who was hired by this owner and the manager who was also hired by this owner.    There will be no shortage of candidates very willing to take one of the few jobs in the US entitled MLB  GM.   And if this team’s system is not as good as it was when Andy Macphail left and falls off rather than goes up, then that is on Dan and his resume.  Constantly giving Dan a complete pass and blaming only the owner for any bad results gets tiresome. 

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While I see some similarities with 1998, there’s no reason we need to have 14 straight losing seasons again, even assuming we hold onto our expiring contracts.    The farm system is in better shape than in ‘98.    The front office really did a poor job of rebuilding in the early/mid 2000’s, and so it took three times as long as it should have.  

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54 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

And if this team’s system is not as good as it was when Andy Macphail left and falls off rather than goes up, then that is on Dan and his resume.

Hold on just a second.

In November of 2011 Dan took over a last place O's team the was 69-93.

Starters

Guthrie 9-17, 4.33 ERA (Dan traded him over the winter)

Britton 11-11, 4.61 ERA ( Who never made it as a starter)

Arrieta 10-8, 5,05 ERA ( We all know that story)

Simon 2-5, 8.77 as a starter

Tillman 3-5, 5.52 ( He had just failed for the 3rd time as a starter)

Bergesen 2-7, 578 as a starter

Matusz  1-9, 10-69 as a starter

Hunter  3-3, 5.00 as a starter

1B Davis 708 OPS (Lee went FA). 

2B Andino 570 OPS

ss Hardy 801OPS

3B Reynolds 806 OPS (Machado was in A Ball)

C Wieters 778 PS

RF Markakis 758 OPS

CF Jones 785 OPS

LF Reimold 781 OPS

DH Guerrero 733 went FA

I don't know if you can say the Dan will have a worst team in 2018 then the one he took over in 2011.

 

 

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I think things look a lot better now than they did in '98. Though if all our prospects crap out, and Gausman and Bundy get injured or decline  . . .

One sobering similarity though. The Orioles' recent successful seasons have been due, in part, to the weakness of the NYYs or RS or both. Part of the problem in the period that began in 1998 was the great strength of those teams (especially the NYYs) year in and year out: they finished 1-2 in each of the ten years from '98 through 2007 (except 2006, when the BJs edged Boston by a game). Both those teams look pretty strong right now, and their young ML players, prospects, and huge operating revenues make it look like they'll be formidable for a while. Realignment, anyone? 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hold on just a second.

In November of 2011 Dan took over a last place O's team the was 69-93.

Starters

Guthrie 9-17, 4.33 ERA (Dan traded him over the winter)

Britton 11-11, 4.61 ERA ( Who never made it as a starter)

Arrieta 10-8, 5,05 ERA ( We all know that story)

Simon 2-5, 8.77 as a starter

Tillman 3-5, 5.52 ( He had just failed for the 3rd time as a starter)

Bergesen 2-7, 578 as a starter

Matusz  1-9, 10-69 as a starter

Hunter  3-3, 5.00 as a starter

1B Davis 708 OPS (Lee went FA). 

2B Andino 570 OPS

ss Hardy 801OPS

3B Reynolds 806 OPS (Machado was in A Ball)

C Wieters 778 PS

RF Markakis 758 OPS

CF Jones 785 OPS

LF Reimold 781 OPS

DH Guerrero 733 went FA

I don't know if you can say the Dan will have a worst team in 2018 then the one he took over in 2011.

 

 

Seems to me that Tillman, Britton, Hardy, Jones, Wieters, the drafted Machado, the drafted Schoop were pretty important parts of the winning seasons beginning in 2012.  And Dan inherited all those guys.  Dan will likely walk away after 2018, so it is the state of the team from 2019 on that he will be compared to what he inherited.  Whoever takes over in 2019 will walk into a worse situation at the major league level and on the farm system than the one Dan inherited, imho. 

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6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hold on just a second.

In November of 2011 Dan took over a last place O's team the was 69-93.

Starters

Guthrie 9-17, 4.33 ERA (Dan traded him over the winter)

Britton 11-11, 4.61 ERA ( Who never made it as a starter)

Arrieta 10-8, 5,05 ERA ( We all know that story)

Simon 2-5, 8.77 as a starter

Tillman 3-5, 5.52 ( He had just failed for the 3rd time as a starter)

Bergesen 2-7, 578 as a starter

Matusz  1-9, 10-69 as a starter

Hunter  3-3, 5.00 as a starter

1B Davis 708 OPS (Lee went FA). 

2B Andino 570 OPS

ss Hardy 801OPS

3B Reynolds 806 OPS (Machado was in A Ball)

C Wieters 778 PS

RF Markakis 758 OPS

CF Jones 785 OPS

LF Reimold 781 OPS

DH Guerrero 733 went FA

I don't know if you can say the Dan will have a worst team in 2018 then the one he took over in 2011.

 

 

Dan doesn’t get enough credit for putting together a decent rotation out of thin air in 2012 as well as putting together an excellent bullpen.     But he did inherit a nice young core and was fortunate to be around as those players were maturing.    And Manny turbocharged the whole team.

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