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Os requesting offers on Machado

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6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I haven't been real active on this board over the last few weeks due to being tied up with other things and 115 pages is way too many to navigate through to see if it's been said already:  But we really need to target a young major league ready (or close to ready) position player as part of any Manny package.  So much attrition involved with young pitchers.  You go all in on pitching and you could end up with nothing to show for it. 

I wouldn't even mind the deal being based around a promising 3B or SS with the pitchers being the secondary pieces.  A young SP you can plug into the rotation with mid-rotation upside and then a more high upside pitching prospect paired with the infielder seems ideal to me.  I have no idea which teams would be able to provide a package like that but maybe someone here can enlighten me. 

On a related note, why are the White Sox even in on Machado?  Didn't they just get done unloading Sale for a bunch of prospects.  Seems giving up a bunch of prospects for one-year rental would be counter productive to the path they have been on.  They can't think they are in position to go for it in 2018. Can they?

Chuck,  the only way this makes sense for the White Sox is if they put together a deal without giving away any core players or top prospects and then turn around at the deadline and move Machado for a better package than what they are giving up now.    There is the gamble that Machado will play well and stay healthy.   If he does both those things and even better, if he has a huge first half and they can leverage a contender they can turn Machado into a deal for a top 1-3 prospect and more from a contender at the deadline.   Not much else makes sense from their perspective.

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BTW, reading between the lines (report that WS didn't include any top 5 prospects)   (offer reportedly included young ML talent) I'm going to guess at some of the players in the White Sox offer.

1. Carson Fullmer (24 - 6 years of service time) -  Currently rated #9 on MLB and #7 by Baseball America before the season.   He has a little ML experience which is what the Orioles want (ML ready).    His minor league numbers have not been good but he's said to have the upside of a #3 starter    He's a smallish RH pitcher 6' tall, which is considered a bad profile for durability and staying injury free.    The White Sox would probably not mind giving him up.

2. Tim Anderson -  24 - signed to a 5/25M contract with club options of 12.5M and 14M in 2023-2024.    Anderson was the WS SS last year and had a disappointing 2nd season with a .679 OPS (.276 OBP).    He was also erratic at SS.   However, he was rated #45 overall prospect before the 2016 season.    His plate discipline has ORIOLE written all over him.   Still, he's talent with speed (49 sb in the minors and 15 out of 16 last year,  some power (26 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, and was a plus defensive player in 2016 (2.8 WAR overall in only 99 games).    Again everyone will say "no way!"  but there is some upside here.    He has to go so the WS master plan can go into effect.   That plan is to play Machado at SS, enhancing his trade appeal at the deadline as either a SS or 3B and the WS, assuming Machado has a good year, can get high end prospects at the deadline when they flip Machado to a contender.

3.  This is probably another minor league starter in the 10-20 range in the WS system.   Someone no one will be happy with.   Spencer Adams?   Jordan Stephens?     Duquette has already publicly boxed himself into a corner saying that he has to get two starters for Machado so they will play either one of these middling prospects up as better than they really are.   However, since both pitched at AA last year, he can say they are close to ML ready and might even help this year.    And he can say that he got two starting pitchers for Machado and a very talented, toolsy, young SS.     Of course, then the question is where do Schoop, Anderson, and Beckham all play in the Orioles infield?

 

You will probably say that package stinks and you could be right but I'm guessing I'm pretty close.   We may never know the package but I would love to find out and see if I'm close or way, way off.

 

 

Edited by RZNJ

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

BTW, reading between the lines (report that WS didn't include any top 5 prospects)   (offer reportedly included young ML talent) I'm going to guess at some of the players in the White Sox offer.

1. Carson Fullmer (24 - 6 years of service time) -  Currently rated #9 on MLB and #7 by Baseball America before the season.   He has a little ML experience which is what the Orioles want (ML ready).    His minor league numbers have not been good but he's said to have the upside of a #3 starter    He's a smallish RH pitcher 6' tall, which is considered a bad profile for durability and staying injury free.    The White Sox would probably not mind giving him up.

2. Tim Anderson -  24 - signed to a 5/25M contract with club options of 12.5M and 14M in 2023-2024.    Anderson was the WS SS last year and had a disappointing 2nd season with a .679 OPS (.276 OBP).    He was also erratic at SS.   However, he was rated #45 overall prospect before the 2016 season.    His plate discipline has ORIOLE written all over him.   Still, he's talent with speed (49 sb in the minors and 15 out of 16 last year,  some power (26 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, and was a plus defensive player in 2016 (2.8 WAR overall in only 99 games).    Again everyone will say "no way!"  but there is some upside here.    He has to go so the WS master plan can go into effect.   That plan is to play Machado at SS, enhancing his trade appeal at the deadline as either a SS or 3B and the WS, assuming Machado has a good year, can get high end prospects at the deadline when they flip Machado to a contender.

3.  This is probably another minor league starter in the 10-20 range in the WS system.   Someone no one will be happy with.   Spencer Adams?   Jordan Stephens?     Duquette has already publicly boxed himself into a corner saying that he has to get two starters for Machado so they will play either one of these middling prospects up as better than they really are.   However, since both pitched at AA last year, he can say they are close to ML ready and might even help this year.    And he can say that he got two starting pitchers for Machado and a very talented, toolsy, young SS.     Of course, then the question is where do Schoop, Anderson, and Beckham all play in the Orioles infield?

 

You will probably say that package stinks and you could be right but I'm guessing I'm pretty close.   We may never know the package but I would love to find out and see if I'm close or way, way off.

 

 

Wow....I'm underwhelmed! I think I read numbers not good 2-3 times in this blurb.

The Rosenthal article said one of Giolito or Kopech but not both. I'm going to assume that he knows as much as Bob Nightengale. Since I don't often see Nightengale mouth playing for the Orioles I'll assume he might be leveraging for the Whitesox?

In the prior post you mentioned Lopez who pitched to a 5 ERA the last two partial seasons at the majors. An upgrade over the dumster we've had last year sure ...but I wouldn't be that interested.

MLB has Jiminez, Kopech, Robert, Rutherford, and Cease 

The White Sox fan here mentioned Hansen as being rated higher by the W Sox than Cease...So assume 1 is 5 and the other  can be had.

I think the Os would only deal with the Sox if they were "Blown Away" Due to Angelos' fear of him being flipped to the Yankees or Red Sox at the deadline.

I think the Orioles will stay away from OFs and 1B as they have depth and a lot jam of those types of players unless the player is too good to pass up.

So for the sake of arguments 

Giolito, Cease/Hansen , Burger, and Bummer....I think this is a package that gives the Os something to sell the fans. I

 

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I'm hoping that at some point in the next few days a GM will decide to get this over with and make an offer that clearly stands above the rest; an offer the O's can't refuse. Maybe the Cardinals will step up. Someone. We'll see.

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39 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I would "probably say" this is a bleep offer. IF this is the best we can do, I would definitely keep Machado for the year and let him walk for the two draft picks. Totally absurd. I'm sure Angelos would never let this happen.

Draft pick, singular.

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6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

BTW, reading between the lines (report that WS didn't include any top 5 prospects)   (offer reportedly included young ML talent) I'm going to guess at some of the players in the White Sox offer.

1. Carson Fullmer (24 - 6 years of service time) -  Currently rated #9 on MLB and #7 by Baseball America before the season.   He has a little ML experience which is what the Orioles want (ML ready).    His minor league numbers have not been good but he's said to have the upside of a #3 starter    He's a smallish RH pitcher 6' tall, which is considered a bad profile for durability and staying injury free.    The White Sox would probably not mind giving him up.

2. Tim Anderson -  24 - signed to a 5/25M contract with club options of 12.5M and 14M in 2023-2024.    Anderson was the WS SS last year and had a disappointing 2nd season with a .679 OPS (.276 OBP).    He was also erratic at SS.   However, he was rated #45 overall prospect before the 2016 season.    His plate discipline has ORIOLE written all over him.   Still, he's talent with speed (49 sb in the minors and 15 out of 16 last year,  some power (26 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, and was a plus defensive player in 2016 (2.8 WAR overall in only 99 games).    Again everyone will say "no way!"  but there is some upside here.    He has to go so the WS master plan can go into effect.   That plan is to play Machado at SS, enhancing his trade appeal at the deadline as either a SS or 3B and the WS, assuming Machado has a good year, can get high end prospects at the deadline when they flip Machado to a contender.

3.  This is probably another minor league starter in the 10-20 range in the WS system.   Someone no one will be happy with.   Spencer Adams?   Jordan Stephens?     Duquette has already publicly boxed himself into a corner saying that he has to get two starters for Machado so they will play either one of these middling prospects up as better than they really are.   However, since both pitched at AA last year, he can say they are close to ML ready and might even help this year.    And he can say that he got two starting pitchers for Machado and a very talented, toolsy, young SS.     Of course, then the question is where do Schoop, Anderson, and Beckham all play in the Orioles infield?

 

You will probably say that package stinks and you could be right but I'm guessing I'm pretty close.   We may never know the package but I would love to find out and see if I'm close or way, way off.

 

 

There is no way I even consider an offer that's built around Fullmer and Anderson. Fullmer could be a 2nd or 3rd piece, and IMO Anderson isn't much better than Beckham if he's even better. Honestly I still don't understand the Sox interest, other than to get him to flip at the deadline. I understand trying to woo him so he can sign a long term deal, but if the Sox aren't very good this year I just don't see that happening.

At this point I just want a deal to get done so we can move on to the rest of the off season

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15 minutes ago, billw76 said:

There is no way I even consider an offer that's built around Fullmer and Anderson. Fullmer could be a 2nd or 3rd piece, and IMO Anderson isn't much better than Beckham if he's even better. Honestly I still don't understand the Sox interest, other than to get him to flip at the deadline. I understand trying to woo him so he can sign a long term deal, but if the Sox aren't very good this year I just don't see that happening.

At this point I just want a deal to get done so we can move on to the rest of the off season

Anderson is worse than Beckham, if he was better than Beckham, he'd be a fine centerpiece in a Machado deal.

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17 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Anderson is worse than Beckham, if he was better than Beckham, he'd be a fine centerpiece in a Machado deal.

Would you have said the same thing at this time last year?

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Just now, RZNJ said:

Would you have said the same thing at this time last year?

No, but would you have taken Severino as the main piece in a Machado deal last year?  would you have said Vlad Jr is a top 5 prospect in baseball. Would you have said Hays is the Orioles top prospect and a top 50 guy in baseball.

Things change, Beckham's defense improved, he hard the ball harder, he walked a bit more, struck out a bit less, hit more line drives and less pop ups.

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5 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

No, but would you have taken Severino as the main piece in a Machado deal last year?  would you have said Vlad Jr is a top 5 prospect in baseball. Would you have said Hays is the Orioles top prospect and a top 50 guy in baseball.

Things change, Beckham's defense improved, he hard the ball harder, he walked a bit more, struck out a bit less, hit more line drives and less pop ups.

Things change but you are a prospect evaluator.     Maybe your opinion is very different than Baseball America's.   They had Anderson rated #1 overall in the WS system before the 2016 season and rated him a 60 overall.   Beckham was rated a 45 overall at the same time.    I like Beckham.   I'm not saying Anderson is better or as good.   I'm saying he's as talented or more talented than Beckham and just like Beckham needed time to develop that's exactly what Anderson is doing.   What all of these other shiny new prospects that everyone wants, has not done yet.   Hit some rough spots along the way.    

Anderson is a very talented player.   Last year might be the player he's always going to be.   However, these are the kind of players you take chances on.   If Anderson were still in the minors he'd be a lot like Kopech who people here are droooling over.     

I go back to the Hewyard trade in his year before FA.   He essentially brought back a talent, young, ML pitcher, who was coming off a disappointing second year (1.6 WAR and decreased strikeout rate).    Anderson is in the same boat.    Anderson is the kind of player who could be infuriating if he never gets it or could blow up into a star player.    Of course, because he's coming off a .679 OPS year (although .772 in August and .814 in September) people no longer look at him as that talented prospect.   They see him as  ML player who struggled.      

I"m saying there's a good chance he's in the WS offer and that he does have value.

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16 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

No, but would you have taken Severino as the main piece in a Machado deal last year?  would you have said Vlad Jr is a top 5 prospect in baseball. Would you have said Hays is the Orioles top prospect and a top 50 guy in baseball.

Things change, Beckham's defense improved, he hard the ball harder, he walked a bit more, struck out a bit less, hit more line drives and less pop ups.

As far as taking Severino as a main piece in a Machado trade?    Is that last year when Manny had two years or this year when he has one.    The answer is no to him being the main piece if Manny had two years but yes if it's one year of Manny.   I saw Severino when he first came up and even last year when he struggled.   I would have had no problem with him being the centerpiece of a deal for a Manny with one year to FA.

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12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Things change but you are a prospect evaluator.     Maybe your opinion is very different than Baseball America's.   They had Anderson rated #1 overall in the WS system before the 2016 season and rated him a 60 overall.   Beckham was rated a 45 overall at the same time.    I like Beckham.   I'm not saying Anderson is better or as good.   I'm saying he's as talented or more talented than Beckham and just like Beckham needed time to develop that's exactly what Anderson is doing.   What all of these other shiny new prospects that everyone wants, has not done yet.   Hit some rough spots along the way.    

Anderson is a very talented player.   Last year might be the player he's always going to be.   However, these are the kind of players you take chances on.   If Anderson were still in the minors he'd be a lot like Kopech who people here are droooling over.     

I go back to the Hewyard trade in his year before FA.   He essentially brought back a talent, young, ML pitcher, who was coming off a disappointing second year (1.6 WAR and decreased strikeout rate).    Anderson is in the same boat.    Anderson is the kind of player who could be infuriating if he never gets it or could blow up into a star player.    Of course, because he's coming off a .679 OPS year (although .772 in August and .814 in September) people no longer look at him as that talented prospect.   They see him as  ML player who struggled.      

I"m saying there's a good chance he's in the WS offer and that he does have value.

I wasn't implying he doesn't have value, I didn't watch him in 2015 so I'm not sure how my take would differ from BA's.  He did seem like he a lot of swing and miss issues for a guy with a grade 60 hit tool (per Baseball Prospectus).  He doesn't have much power and doesn't hit the ball in the air.  That would be fine if his defensive ability lived up to it's potential, he's got all the tools to be a great defensive SS but he made Tim Beckham look like a gold glove last year.

He could be a late bloomer, the tools are there, and yeah I'd like him as a 2nd or 3rd piece, there is big upside due to his lengthy contract extension, but also 20+ million owed if he flames out.  My main point of contention was billw76's lack of acknowledgement of how solid of a player Tim Beckham is.

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12 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I wasn't implying he doesn't have value, I didn't watch him in 2015 so I'm not sure how my take would differ from BA's.  He did seem like he a lot of swing and miss issues for a guy with a grade 60 hit tool (per Baseball Prospectus).  He doesn't have much power and doesn't hit the ball in the air.  That would be fine if his defensive ability lived up to it's potential, he's got all the tools to be a great defensive SS but he made Tim Beckham look like a gold glove last year.

He could be a late bloomer, the tools are there, and yeah I'd like him as a 2nd or 3rd piece, there is big upside due to his lengthy contract extension, but also 20+ million owed if he flames out.  My main point of contention was billw76's lack of acknowledgement of how solid of a player Tim Beckham is.

Ok.  I'm just reciting statistics here.     He hit 17 homers last year.   He hit 8 in the last two months.    I would say that a guy with 26 doubles, 4 triples and 17 home runs at least had a little power.   That's pretty close to average, I would think.     I mean, in about the same amount of games,  Trey Mancini had the same amount of doubles and triples and 7 more home runs.     In a side note that has nothing to do with power, he stole 9 bases without being caught in his last 27 games.    

He was the 2nd piece in the deal I mentioned.   It's the first piece that is weak if it's Carson Fulmer.    I assume the first piece will be a pitcher.   The Orioles want Giolito or Kopech.    The White Sox offered Fulmer.   My total guess.

Edited by RZNJ

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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  I'm just reciting statistics here.     He hit 17 homers last year.   He hit 8 in the last two months.    I would say that a guy with 26 doubles, 4 triples and 17 home runs at least had a little power.   That's pretty close to average, I would think.     I mean, in about the same amount of games,  Trey Mancini had the same amount of doubles and triples and 7 more home runs.     In a side note that has nothing to do with power, he stole 9 bases without being caught in his last 27 games.    

Everyone hit home runs last season, Whit Merrifield, Chris Taylor, and Elvis Andrus hit more home runs than he did. He had the same average exit velocity as Craig Gentry, less than JJ Hardy (in his diminished state).  He only had 28% flyballs.  He has good speed for sure, and again, I'm not trying to bash him, he has big upside, I'm just trying to be realistic, his overall batting line was terrible.  His .276 OBP was third worst among qualified hitters.

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11 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Everyone hit home runs last season, Whit Merrifield, Chris Taylor, and Elvis Andrus hit more home runs than he did. He had the same average exit velocity as Craig Gentry, less than JJ Hardy (in his diminished state).  He only had 28% flyballs.  He has good speed for sure, and again, I'm not trying to bash him, he has big upside, I'm just trying to be realistic, his overall batting line was terrible.  His .276 OBP was third worst among qualified hitters.

And I'm not saying he doesn't have flaws or had a very poor season overall.   That's why you can get him in a one year rental trade.

Edited by RZNJ

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