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Elbren

Disney Close to a Deal to Purchase 21st Century FOX

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Sounds like this deal is fairly close and could be announced as early as next week.  I've seen numbers ranging from $60 - $70 billion.  The first thought of most people would be that Marvel is getting FF and the X-Men back, but the ramifications of this deal are a lot bigger than that.

 

- (the obvious) FF, X-Men and all of their associated characters, villains and lore return to Marvel.  Marvel Studios has been pretty tight lipped on what comes after phase 3 ends with Avengers: Infinity War.  This could be a big reason why.  This could potentially shake up Marvel's current movie schedule, the same way that Spider-Man: Homecoming did.  It's why Thor: Ragnarok was pushed back into November and Inhumans was taken off of their slate entirely.

 

- deal would not include Fox News Group, Fox Sports and Fox Broadcasting Company.

 

- 21st Century Fox would retain its commercial broadcast network, Fox, but Disney would own the company that produces, co-produces or distributes many of the series that now air on Fox, including The Simpsons, Bob’s Burgers, The Gifted, The Exorcist and The Orville, as well as some shows that appear on other networks, such as NBC’s This Is Us, ABC’s Modern Family, and FX’s Legion, American Horror Story and American Crime Story (with FX Productions, also part of the sale).

 

- Disney already owns a 30% stake in Hulu.  This deal would give them another 30%, essentially giving them a controlling interest.

 

- Disney/Marvel would own a piece of Batman.  FOX currently owns the rights to the 1960's show as well as the current show, Gotham.

 

- Disney would gain the rights to some pretty big film franchises like Alien, Avatar, Planet of the Apes, Night at the Museum, Taken, How to Train Your Dragon, Ice Age, Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda, The Croods, etc.

 

- Disney would gain full distribution rights to the 1st six Star Wars films.  

 

- This deal could have a huge impact on Netflix.  Disney is already preparing to pull all of their content off of Netflix after 2018.  If this deal goes through, that could include all FOX content as well.

 

- Disney is preparing to launch their own Netflix-type service in 2019.  One of the biggest questions surrounding this is whether Disney has enough content to justify a paid streaming service to the average consumer (i.e., not just parents with elementary school kids).  The TV and movie rights associated w/ this deal would be a huge boost to their service.  It's worth noting, they've already said that their service will be "cheaper than Netflix".

 

- This deal would already be a punch to the gut for Netflix.  No idea how it would effect Hulu, considering the huge stake it would give Disney in that service.  It would be a controlling interest ... but not full control.  The Mouse doesn't like to share when it doesn't have to and with them preparing to launch their own service ...

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Sounds like the deal could be finalized and announced as early as Thursday.

 

One fix to my previous post.  Something I didn't realize is that FOX doesn't actually own the rights to Fantastic Four.  They share the rights with another company, Constantin Films.  FOX owns the distribution rights and Constantin owns the production rights.  One thing to note is that it looks like Constantin may be making a push more towards it's sports business.  If that happens, they may end up selling off their TV/movie side of the company.

 

One thing I'm unsure about is whether they even have to do anything.  I know the basics of the deal, but not the fine details or wording.  If Constantin makes a FF movie, Disney still owns the distribution rights.  Can't they just block it from release, eventually reverting control back to Disney/Marvel?  Or is the fact that they made a FF movie enough for them to retain the rights?

I'd love to hear from someone who knows more about this (or film rights, contracts, etc.).  

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. A few weeks ago, after the AT&T/Time Warner merger became official, Comcast came in and made a higher offer for FOX.  Their offer was for $65 Bil., but it consisted of mostly cash versus Disney's deal which was mostly stock options.  Disney quickly came back and upped their offer to $71.3 Bil. and changed their deal to include more cash (stockholders have the option of taking up to 50% in cash w/ the rest in stock).  Comcast has remained silent since then, with many believing that Comcast doesn't have the equity to go higher.  They had quite a bit of existing debt and any deal for FOX would have required taking on their substantial debt.

 

FOX's board didn't wait very long to accept Disney's 2nd offer and today, Disney has won U.S. antitrust approval on the condition that it sell all 22 regional sports networks owned by Fox.  This also makes Disney the majority shareholder of Hulu.  With them opening their own streaming service, they could end up selling off their shares in Hulu.  Between that and having to sell off the various regional sports networks, Disney could end up making back a good amount of the money they spent on this deal.  

 

In the immediate future, we may get some kind of news on the MCU front.  Marvel Studios has been very quiet about their Phase 4 movies that begin after Avengers 4.  The only movies they've talked about are the few films coming out next year, going into 2020.  The rumor is that Fiege is basically just waiting on the phone call telling him he's allowed to use the X-Men.

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Comcast has officially dropped their bid to buy Fox.  This was most likely motivated by the fact that the Justice Dept. has appealed the judges decision to approve the AT&T/Time Warner deal.  Comcast hinted at this decision about a week ago when they decided to make a separate $34 billion bid for SKY, one of Europe's largest media companies and a huge part of the Disney/Fox deal.

 

I really hate following big business deals like this.  The implications and fallout from deals like this can be huge, but they just end up making you feel like a little kid in the back of the car.

"Is it done?  Are we there yet?"

"... No ..."

"Are we there yet?"

"... No ..."

"Are we there yet?"

"... No ..."

"Are we there yet?"

"... No ..."

 

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Disney already makes moves regarding their newly acquired FOX properties. (Careful clicking on the links.  There's nothing wrong w/ Cinema Blend, but they're one of these sites that refuse to proof read their articles or hire an Editor, so reading their content can quickly make you feel like a 1st grade school teacher. lol)

 

- Mouse Guard has been canceled two weeks before it was going into production.  This was a motion capture film based off of the Eisner award-winning comic series, starring Idris Elba and Andy Serkis.

 

- The Gifted, a tv show based in the X-Men universe, has been canceled.

 

- It's only rumor at this point, but it looks like The New Mutants may have been delayed again.  It's original release date was April 13, 2018, it was pushed back to Feb. 22 2019, then again to August 2019. 

 

Quote

Fox’s unknown source spoke with genre news site iHorror and said that while there isn’t a new release date in the works, it’ll be “far away from August.” So if you were hoping that 2019 would still see two mutant powered hits coming our way, those odds just reduced dramatically. How far away from The New Mutants’ initial release date is far enough isn’t known, but the invocation of that very phrase is enough to assume that this calendar year is probably off the table. That is, unless Disney and Fox plan to do some sort of stealth drop onto a streaming platform as previously rumored, which honestly wouldn’t be such a bad idea at this point.

 

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On 6/27/2018 at 3:39 PM, Elbren said:

FOX's board didn't wait very long to accept Disney's 2nd offer and today, Disney has won U.S. antitrust approval on the condition that it sell all 22 regional sports networks owned by Fox. 

Disney has finally sold the regional networks, as part of their U.S. antitrust deal.  They were sold to the Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc., the largest broadcasting  station owner in the U.S., for $10 Billion.

 

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1 minute ago, Elbren said:

Disney has finally sold the regional networks, as part of their U.S. antitrust deal.  They were sold to the Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc., the largest broadcasting  station owner in the U.S., for $10 Billion.

 

Booo, forgot to provide a link. lol

 

Also, it sounds like Comcast is in talks w/ Disney to sell their Hulu shares.  That would change them from having a controlling interest to full owners of the service.  This could get very bad for Netflix ...

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More FOX related moves.

- James Cameron's Avatar sequels have all been pushed back.  The first was slated for Dec. 20, 2020.  It has been pushed back a full year to Dec. 17, 2021, Avatar 3 in Dec. 2023, Avatar 4 in Dec. 2025 and Avatar 5 in 2027.

 

- The sci-fi movie Ad Astra has been pushed back from May 24 to Sept. 20

 

- The New Mutants officially pushed back (again) to April 3, 2020.  I still think there's a good chance that this gets pulled entirely and put on their Disney+ streaming service.  They're likely re-introducing the MCU-version of the X-Men in the next 3-4 years.  Do they really want more of FOX's convoluted X-Men movies floating out there a year from now?

 

- Three Marvel-related FOX films have been pulled from the 2020-2021 schedule.  These were all likely unannounced X-Men related filmed.  Disney also pulled the Channing Tatum Gambit film from the release calendar.

 

- The biggest news from this is that there isn't a Deadpool movie anywhere on the schedule ... I guess we won't be seeing DP 3 anytime in the near future. 

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Disney now has full control of Hulu.  They gain full control immediately while agreeing to pay Comcast at least $5.8 Billion in 5 years.  NBC shows (Comcast owns NBCUniversal)  will remain on Hulu for those 5 years.  It sounds like Comcast is giving up control of their stake now in hopes that Disney grows Hulu's service (i.e., stock value) in that five year span.  The $5.8 Billion number guarantee's them that, even if this doesn't work out for Disney and the service loses value, they'll still at least get the current 2019-value of their stake (I think it's around 30%).

 

Purely speculation, but I think you've found the home of FOX's more adult content with Disney+ being the family-friendly home for their Disney channel content, princess movies, PIXAR, MCU and Star Wars films.

 

Not that I want to see this deal dragged out, but I'm kind of surprised you haven't seen the government involved in this.  With Hulu's more expensive packages offering limited cable-like service, doesn't this essentially change Disney from a producer of content to both a producer and content provider, a la Comcast, Verizon FIOS, etc.?  This certainly doesn't give them any type of monopoly in any one field, but the government doesn't seem to like it when billion dollar companies get too big and have their hands in too many cookie jars.

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On 5/15/2019 at 3:48 AM, Elbren said:

Disney now has full control of Hulu.  They gain full control immediately while agreeing to pay Comcast at least $5.8 Billion in 5 years.  NBC shows (Comcast owns NBCUniversal)  will remain on Hulu for those 5 years.  It sounds like Comcast is giving up control of their stake now in hopes that Disney grows Hulu's service (i.e., stock value) in that five year span.  The $5.8 Billion number guarantee's them that, even if this doesn't work out for Disney and the service loses value, they'll still at least get the current 2019-value of their stake (I think it's around 30%).

 

Purely speculation, but I think you've found the home of FOX's more adult content with Disney+ being the family-friendly home for their Disney channel content, princess movies, PIXAR, MCU and Star Wars films.

 

Not that I want to see this deal dragged out, but I'm kind of surprised you haven't seen the government involved in this.  With Hulu's more expensive packages offering limited cable-like service, doesn't this essentially change Disney from a producer of content to both a producer and content provider, a la Comcast, Verizon FIOS, etc.?  This certainly doesn't give them any type of monopoly in any one field, but the government doesn't seem to like it when billion dollar companies get too big and have their hands in too many cookie jars.

That is the same thing Netflix is doing.  Disney also had to get rid of all the Fox RSNs and weren’t able to buy Fox network or Fox News.  If Disney channel and ESPN channel is available for other online cable like packages like Sling I don’t see an issue.  

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Disney as finally announced their pricing for Disney+.

 

They announced earlier this year that the stand-alone service will be $6.99/month and they will now be offering a $12.99 package deal that includes Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu (the $5.99 version that includes commercials).

 

Honestly, I would rather see a package that included Disney+ and the ad-free version of Hulu.  As is, I'd rather pay extra for the two services separately since I have zero interest in ESPN or for paying for a service that forces ad's on me.  Even then, like many people, I have to ask whether I really need this considering I already have Netflix and Amazon Prime.  Unless they come up w/ a better Disney+/Hulu package, I don't see myself subscribing.

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Disney has finally pulled the plug on (almost) everything at FOX.

 

They've canceled everything currently in development at the studio with the exception of the Planet of the Apes series, James Cameron's Avatar and FOX Searchlight.  Disney announced that FOX posted a $170 Million loss for fiscal Q3, likely a big part of that being Dark Phoenix, which only grossed $65 Million on a budget of $200 Million.

 

Quote

One of the biggest issues was the Fox studio performance which was well below where it had been and well below where we hoped it would be when we made the acquisition,” Iger said.

 

It sounds like films that are all but done and scheduled through 2020 will be unaffected; films like Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story, the Amy Adams thriller Woman in the Window and Brad Pitt’s astronaut drama Ad Astra.

 

They made it official and announced that the Marvel properties from FOX were being handed over to Kevin Fiege and Marvel Studios.

 

They also announced remakes for multiple FOX properties: Home Alone, Night at the Museum, The Diary of a Wimpy Kid and Cheaper by the Dozen - all four are headed to their new streaming service, Disney+.

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Just now, Elbren said:

... likely a big part of that being Dark Phoenix, which only grossed $65 Million on a budget of $200 Million.

That should have said $65 Million domestic.

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