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International Signing Period

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A lot of the big money signees don't work, which is why you don't see as a big an uproar about it. Even the draft is pretty hit and miss, look at the first round of any year. And these Latin signees are even younger and even more risky. But there are quality players out there, and some will get big bonuses and some will get small ones.

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So how different is this from our track record on domestic amateurs?

Well at least we draft and usually sign and pay these guys. Do you like Roberts , Markakis, Olson? Well they were considered top talents( at least drafted before round 2, so you have to PARTICIPATE: that's what is different.

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A lot of the big money signees don't work, which is why you don't see as a big an uproar about it. Even the draft is pretty hit and miss, look at the first round of any year. And these Latin signees are even younger and even more risky. But there are quality players out there, and some will get big bonuses and some will get small ones.

So I guess you don't believe that the SCOUTS in all these other organizations know what they are talking about? THEY must believe these kids are high profile talents, or maybe there just pretending to like them. That way, they can fool their bosses into spending millions. Not that that would reflect badly on the scouts.:rolleyes:

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I'd agree that I don't think they should go out and be spending like crazy. They have to do it in a smart, disciplined manner. It is interesting though that many of the smaller market teams are becoming much bigger players in this market. It'll be something to pay attention to in the next couple of weeks -- now that the draft is over -- to see how McPhail is different from the previous GM's.

First, no one is advocating "stupid spending". Do you really believe that in the last 1o years, the orioles have not seen a "1st round talent" in latin america. I'm certain they have, How could they not? They just choose not to participate.

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Which of the Latin stars were guys that signed big time contracts and which were guys that signed smaller deals and just blossomed?

Additionally, how many other big time Latin bonus babies didn't pan out?

Its not like the O's don't have a presence there, they just seem to be focusing on signing many of the less expensive guys rather than a few of the expensive guys. Considering how bit of a risk even the expensive guys are, its not neccesarily a bad approach.

Also, if they scout a guy that they think is a safer bet, but still expensive, my guess is they'd pony up to sign him.

Your criticisms here seem misplaced to me. Getting the "blue chip latin talent" doesn't really correlate all that well to "developing blue chip latin players". The stars come from both expensive guys and under-the-radar guys. As long as we have a presence and are working hard, I'm happy with the plan. It certainly seems like MacPhail is making Latin America a priority, so why all the criticism.

If you want to attack the way things have been done the last 10 years, fine, but really, do you expect us to start churning out latin talent within one year of increasing our focus there? It takes a LONG time to get established.

First, this info and opinion was based on Stockstills comments. 2nd, if as you say, the talent comes in both ways (exspensive and less so) how is it the O's NEVER pony up . Again, your suggesting at the end of your post that things will improve or be different: Stockstill just disagreed with you.

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First, this info and opinion was based on Stockstills comments. 2nd, if as you say, the talent comes in both ways (exspensive and less so) how is it the O's NEVER pony up . Again, your suggesting at the end of your post that things will improve or be different: Stockstill just disagreed with you.
So Stockstill said he didn't think the Latin scouting system would produce talent?

No, he clearly didn't say that. He said he didn't the the cost of the higher-priced talent was worth the risk. That's why the Orioles don't pony up the money. Because they don't think the risk is worth the reward. They think there are better ways to spend their money in Latin America. They definitely do spend money there. You can disagree with that, but its not an unreasonable game plan. If you can show me what percentage of Latin MLB players were high bonus guys, what percentage were low bonus guys, and what percentage of high bonus guys actually make it, then you might have some ground to stand on. But as it is, you are just arguing about things you have no idea about.

If you had $3M to invest in Latin America, how would you spend it? On one $3M guy? On three $1M guys? Thirty $100,000 guys? Theres tons of ways that money can be spent, and without knowing all the facts, how can you say that one way is better than another?

This is a situation where our knowledge makes our knowledge about the draft (which is minute at best) look like knowing the ABCs.

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So I guess you don't believe that the SCOUTS in all these other organizations know what they are talking about? THEY must believe these kids are high profile talents, or maybe there just pretending to like them. That way, they can fool their bosses into spending millions. Not that that would reflect badly on the scouts.:rolleyes:

Do you not understand the idea that players don't always pan out? I can't tell you how many times I hear comparisons to MLB players with different draftees and Latin American signees. Not to mention the many times I have heard "oh he is a sure thing". If these sure things had panned out , we would have to have a 40 team MLB to support all of them. But more than half the time these guys don't pan out. Look at Joel Guzman who I believe signed for 2-3 million dollars by the Los Angeles Dodgers. He was supposed to be the next sure thing. He was signed in 2001 and has seen all of 24 games in the majors with a .232 average and a .268 minor league average which isn't bad but isnt great either. He was the Salcido player of his time. The Orioles are rebuilding and like why we didn't draft any High Schoolers in the 07 draft we are not signing these high risk bonus babies. This year if you noticed we took risk with the High Schoolers because there is more confidence with our the depth of our system that we feel we can take the risk with High Schoolers, but these bonus babies are not what we need as an organization and I know it is tough as a fan to read about these sure things and see the Orioles do nothing to sign them, but honestly I'd be willing to bet that only one of these high valued players becomes a daily contributor in the Major Leagues someday. Taking into account the fact that the kid has to develop, is probably going to have an attitude about him, the expectation pressures put upon him to succeed, questions as to his maturity level(how much is he going to party, is he another Josh Hamilton type), I mean just about any factor can ruin a guy's sure thing label and here we would be throwing $2 million his way, enough money that could get us 200 Latin American guys and have 5-10 of them succeed. It's just like playing the stock market, if you diversify your money, your going to make more money in the long run than if you throw all your money in one "sure thing" company.

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Do you not understand the idea that players don't always pan out? I can't tell you how many times I hear comparisons to MLB players with different draftees and Latin American signees. Not to mention the many times I have heard "oh he is a sure thing". If these sure things had panned out , we would have to have a 40 team MLB to support all of them. But more than half the time these guys don't pan out. Look at Joel Guzman who I believe signed for 2-3 million dollars by the Los Angeles Dodgers. He was supposed to be the next sure thing. He was signed in 2001 and has seen all of 24 games in the majors with a .232 average and a .268 minor league average which isn't bad but isnt great either. He was the Salcido player of his time. The Orioles are rebuilding and like why we didn't draft any High Schoolers in the 07 draft we are not signing these high risk bonus babies. This year if you noticed we took risk with the High Schoolers because there is more confidence with our the depth of our system that we feel we can take the risk with High Schoolers, but these bonus babies are not what we need as an organization and I know it is tough as a fan to read about these sure things and see the Orioles do nothing to sign them, but honestly I'd be willing to bet that only one of these high valued players becomes a daily contributor in the Major Leagues someday. Taking into account the fact that the kid has to develop, is probably going to have an attitude about him, the expectation pressures put upon him to succeed, questions as to his maturity level(how much is he going to party, is he another Josh Hamilton type), I mean just about any factor can ruin a guy's sure thing label and here we would be throwing $2 million his way, enough money that could get us 200 Latin American guys and have 5-10 of them succeed. It's just like playing the stock market, if you diversify your money, your going to make more money in the long run than if you throw all your money in one "sure thing" company.

OK: I give up: your right: Lets not go after the top talent: They MIGHT not work out: Besides, what we've been doing has worked out so well.

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OK: I give up: your right: Lets not go after the top talent: They MIGHT not work out: Besides, what we've been doing has worked out so well.

You need to develop some patience. Andy MacPhail has only been the GM for one year. Joe Jordan has only conducted 4 drafts. We currently do not have the resources to sign these top talent high risk guys for millions of dollars. Yes its disappointing to not see the Orioles make any big splashes in the Latino market, but I don't blame them for it either. Maybe in a few years you might see the O's make a big signing here or there once they have their dominican academy set up and running, a stable farm system with enough quality prospects that they could afford to take a chance on a bonus baby. Right now they can't do that because they don't have an in-depth organization talent pool where they can take a risk on a $2-3 million 16 year old player. You have to build a strong foundation before you can take the risk, and right now I'd say the O's do not have a strong foundation, they are on their way, but they do not have it yet.

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OK: I give up: your right: Lets not go after the top talent: They MIGHT not work out: Besides, what we've been doing has worked out so well.
Its not that it MIGHT not work out. Its that it usually doesn't. The cheaper guys usually don't work out either. But, you can sign a lot more of them. Sometimes the cheaper guys end up being great players in the long run anyway, even better than the expensive guys.

The best approach is almost certainly to mix and match a few expensive guys that you really like with a lot of less expensive guys with potential. We'll see which way MacPhail goes. But, I have no problem with them having the organizational philosophy of pretty much ignoring the guys that take $2-4M to sign. There is a ton of risk there. The odds of a 16 y/o guy ending up in the majors are very slim. A few make it, but far more just end up as wasted money.

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http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266411.html

Inoa signs for $4 mill. if history has shown, this is likely to be another bust and yet another reason why the O's shouldn't invest in the overpaid latin american players. Examples, Wily Mo Pena is batting .218 with the Nationals with 2 hrs and a .259 OBP and signed a $2.44 Million dollar contract in 1999. Joel Guzman, signed with the Dodgers in 2001 for $2.25 Million, now batting .268 with a .290 OBP and 15 HRs in AAA Durham, batting a whopping career MLB average(over 24 games) of .232. And Ricardo Aramboles who signed a $1.52 Million contract with the Yanks in 1998. Anyone ever heard of him? Highly doubtful because he never really got above A ball and after 6 professional seasons(last being 2004) he had a career 4.10 ERA with his best years being in Rookie ball. If anyone has spare time to do research on the other top ten bonus babies of all time, feel free to contribute or rebute, however with the risk of the player not being the same age as he claims and the fact that Dominican players are riskier than High School draft picks(they are 15-16 years old), I am glad that the Orioles are playing it smart and staying out of the bonus baby game. Now I wish the kid the best of luck and hope he proves me wrong, but odds are he won't be the next Pedro Martinez or Edinson Volquez.

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Another things that David Stockstill has told me is that the market over there has really changed because of the money involved. The guys who now house and feed these young plyaers and act as their "agents" are now providing them good nutrition and good instruction, so they are now no longer the complete wildcards. He believes the players now are easier to gauge as to their ceilings because of the better conditions from whcih they now comes from.

Either way, he does not see the Orioles getting into the bidding wars for the top guys because he's yet to see a guy worth the money he was going to get or at least not worth the amount of risk.

The recent upgrades to their Dominican facility along with Felipe Alou Jr. taking over as the administrator down there should help the Orioles with the mid-range guys who don't command the huge bucks but who have a decent upside.

One of the first guys is Garabez Rosa with the the GCL O's. He's off to a nice start and hopefully will be the beginning of new pipeline of talent from the Dominican for the O's.

Edited by ScottieBaseball

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Another things that David Stockstill has told me is that the market over there has really changed because of the money involved. The guys who now house and feed these young plyaers and act as their "agents" are now providing them good nutrition and good instruction, so they are now no longer the complete wildcards. He believes the players now are easier to gauge as to their ceilings because of the better conditions from whcih they now comes from.

Either way, he does not see the Orioles getting into the bidding wars for the top guys because he's yet to see a guy worth the money he was going to get or at least not worth the amount of risk.

The recent upgrades to their Dominican facility along with Felipe Alou Jr. taking over as the administrator down there should help the Orioles with the mid-range guys who don't command the huge bucks but who have a decent upside.

One of the first guys is Garabez Rosa with the the GCL O's. He's off to a nice start and hopefully will be the beginning of new pipeline of talent from the Dominican for the O's.

Garabez Rosa's stats so far this season...

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPSORI	GCL	.308	9	39	8	12	1	2	1	5	20	1	3	3	0	.325	.513	.838Minors		.308	9	39	8	12	1	2	1	5	20	1	3	3	0	.325	.513	.838

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