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NedFromYork

What was our record in games Hays started?

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39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Too soon to say.   Most players improve their walk rates over time. Look at Schoop last year.

Schoop’s minor league walk rates were reasonable. His walk rate during his first seasons was lower than probably anyone projected. His 2017 rate is probably close to those projections.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Too soon to say.   Most players improve their walk rates over time. Look at Schoop last year.

Adam Jones did not improve his walk rate from the minors to the majors. The majority of players do not improve their walk rates from the minors to the majors: their walk rates go down, instead. Batters who walk a lot in the minors keep walking a lot. But batters who walk a moderate amount or a little bit walk even less in the big leagues.

Schoop is an exception to the rule. It's not because he has become so much better at taking walks, it is because he hit for such a higher batting average with a high slugging percentage that pitchers have started to throw him a higher percentage of balls farther outside of the zone.

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23 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

I can't get overly excited about a guy whose team went 3-13 in games that he started.

There just has to be a significant correlation there.

 

o

Hays isn't a winner!  Trade him while he still has some value.

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8 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Adam Jones did not improve his walk rate from the minors to the majors. The majority of players do not improve their walk rates from the minors to the majors: their walk rates go down, instead. Batters who walk a lot in the minors keep walking a lot. But batters who walk a moderate amount or a little bit walk even less in the big leagues.

Schoop is an exception to the rule. It's not because he has become so much better at taking walks, it is because he hit for such a higher batting average with a high slugging percentage that pitchers have started to throw him a higher percentage of balls farther outside of the zone.

The question is, if players are being told to be overly aggressive in the minors does that still hold true?

Mind you I have no idea why a team would tell a player to expand his strike zone in such a fashion.

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1 hour ago, Babypowder said:

Schoop’s minor league walk rates were reasonable. His walk rate during his first seasons was lower than probably anyone projected. His 2017 rate is probably close to those projections.

I can't help think it's an effect of being on a team of free swingers.  Manny's walk rate has gone down the last two years, his OBP should be higher for a hitter of his caliber.  

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9 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Adam Jones did not improve his walk rate from the minors to the majors. The majority of players do not improve their walk rates from the minors to the majors: their walk rates go down, instead. Batters who walk a lot in the minors keep walking a lot. But batters who walk a moderate amount or a little bit walk even less in the big leagues.

Schoop is an exception to the rule. It's not because he has become so much better at taking walks, it is because he hit for such a higher batting average with a high slugging percentage that pitchers have started to throw him a higher percentage of balls farther outside of the zone.

I was talking about how players progress once they’re in the majors.   I agree that generally, hitters walk more in the minors and at least initially, and probably long term, will have lower walk rates in the majors.    I just think it’s really too early to say how low Hays’ walk rate will be, after one full season of pro ball where he skipped low A and then got promoted to AA and then the majors.    Ask me in 2021.   

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The question is, if players are being told to be overly aggressive in the minors does that still hold true?

Mind you I have no idea why a team would tell a player to expand his strike zone in such a fashion.

Yeah, I don't know what to think of that philosophy. 

It's worth noting that Hays was noted coming out of the draft for his patient approach. 

I think Mountcastle will need walks more than Hays going forward.  Hays is such a good bad ball hitter, but Mountcastle, although he has more bat speed, doesn't have the same kind of barrel control.

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On 2/15/2018 at 9:46 PM, OFFNY said:

I can't get overly excited about a guy whose team went 3-13 in games that he started.

There just has to be a significant correlation there.

I’m not going to say it’s 100% uncorrelated, but come on.    Hays started the final 15 games of the year.    During that period, the entire team posted a .594 OPS.    Is that on Hays?   In that stretch:

Trumbo .228 OPS

Machado .455

Schoop .491

Beckham .571 (and missed 7 games with injuries)

Just to name a few.

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not going to say it’s 100% uncorrelated, but come on.    Hays started the final 15 games of the year.    During that period, the entire team posted a .594 OPS.    Is that on Hays?   In that stretch:

Trumbo .228 OPS

Machado .455

Schoop .491

Beckham .571 (and missed 7 games with injuries)

Just to name a few.

 

 

 

I am 98% certain that OFFNY has been being facetious about the supposed correlation between the Orioles September losses and Hays presence in the lineup.

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12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I was talking about how players progress once they’re in the majors.   I agree that generally, hitters walk more in the minors and at least initially, and probably long term, will have lower walk rates in the majors.    I just think it’s really too early to say how low Hays’ walk rate will be, after one full season of pro ball where he skipped low A and then got promoted to AA and then the majors.    Ask me in 2021.   

A typical major league player's walk rate peaks in his late 30s.  If you're good enough to stick around that long I'd suppose most players end up walking more in the majors than they did years ago in the minors.

So this is clearly not typical, but Sammy Sosa had a minor league high of 35 walks, and a major league high of 116.  Nick Markakis walked 66 times his last year in the minors, and three years later walked 99 in the majors.  Cal peaked at 77 minor league walks, 102 in the majors.  Eddie 77 minors, 107 majors.  Joey Votto 90 in the minors, 143 majors.  Torii Hunter walked 47 times in AA, ended up eclipsing that mark seven times in the majors.

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I noted also (per Luke-OH’s article today) that Hays was known as a patient hitter in college, and was told by the Orioles to be aggressive last year.    So, he may be capable of adjusting.    Saying that, his BB rate last year in the minors was lower than Jones’ when he was a minor leaguer.  

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On 2/15/2018 at 9:46 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

I can't get overly excited about a guy whose team went 3-13 in games that he started.

There just has to be a significant correlation there.

 

o

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

Im not going to say it’s 100% uncorrelated, but come on. Hays started the final 15 games of the year. During that period, the entire team posted a .594 OPS. Is that on Hays? In that stretch:

Trumbo: ) .228 OPS

Machado: .455 OPS

Schoop : .491 OPS

Beckham: .571 OPS (and missed 7 games with injuries)

Just to name a few.

 

 

 

o

 

Frank ....... this is the first time that I needed Malike's help with you. 

There is no more of a correlation between Hays' starts and the Orioles' 3-13 record in that span than there was between the Orioles starting the 1988 season at 0-21 with Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken, Jr in the lineup in those games.

 

o

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not going to say it’s 100% uncorrelated, but come on.    Hays started the final 15 games of the year.    During that period, the entire team posted a .594 OPS.    Is that on Hays?   In that stretch:

Trumbo .228 OPS

Machado .455

Schoop .491

Beckham .571 (and missed 7 games with injuries)

Just to name a few.

 

 

 

This goes to prove that it is a team game, made up of individuals. When no one is playing well enough to make up for the ones who aren't, teams lose games. The Orioles experienced a team slump that with a couple of hot hitters might have been turned around. Hitting is contagious, not hitting may be the same

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