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Cobb to Orioles (Confirmed by Roch Kubatko)

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8 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I agree, people have a tendency to be very negative, when hiding behind a keyboard or smartphone.

I too, get annoyed, and wonder what team some of the really negative ones actually root for.

For me it's more concern for the future than anything else. When you've gone through 14 consecutive losing seasons because of bad baseball decisions, I think one gets a little gun shy. The Orioles margin for error in this division is razor thin.

Corn put it very succinctly last night:

Every year, they put the most competitive ML team on the field with the resources available.

Even if the chances of the ML being competitive are slim. When you take that approach you end up not getting appropriate value for guys like Britton & Machado. When you don't really attempt to re-sign guys like Machado (and more recently) Schoop in their arb years, you're not planning for the future. To me that is irresponsible.

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2 hours ago, foxfield said:

 

 

Regarding Roch...I like him.   He is funny and he knows the game pretty well.  I think he gets zero inside info and I think the dysfunction of the O's helps that.  I see him sorta as one of us, who gets paid to post everyday. ;) 

 

Dan, is a first class GM.  Orioles still a model of dysfunction, with a bunch of really smart people who want to win.  God bless Potter, and I like our roster better this year than any year since 2012.

 

And don't look now, but even if we lost Manny, Britton and everyone else the future looks pretty bright.  I have said since the middle of last season, that the ultimate grade of DD would require a pretty strong offseason.  Well, this rotation is not Palmer McNally Cuellar and Dobson, but it is one hell of a lot better on paper than the rotation that posted the worst ERA in Oriole history.

Congrats to the Orioles, kids get in free, old man really trying to win, could Manny be next?

Damn, it's like Christmas morning, I have been so despondent and now I cant wait!!!!!!

Please, join me for a cup of bright Orange Kool Aid!


 

You mean since 2014? :) That was the year we got Cruz.  2012 we signed Betemit, Endy Chavez, traded for Hammel and Lindstrom, signed Ayala... 

Anyway... Orange Kool Aid cheers!

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I think this move is awesome not only for 2018, but for 2019 as well. Even with Jones, Machado, Brach and Britton all Free Agents at year's end, I don't think the roster is void of talent for 2019. There will be holes, but at least now there are 4 solid Major League starters along with Schoop, Hays, Sisco, Santander, Mancini, Mullins, Stewart and others.

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Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

For me it's more concern for the future than anything else. When you've gone through 14 consecutive losing seasons because of bad baseball decisions, I think one gets a little gun shy. The Orioles margin for error in this division is razor thin.

Corn put it very succinctly last night:

Every year, they put the most competitive ML team on the field with the resources available.

Even if the chances of the ML being competitive are slim. When you take that approach you end up not getting appropriate value for guys like Britton & Machado. When you don't really attempt to re-sign guys like Machado (and more recently) Schoop in their arb years, you're not planning for the future. To me that is irresponsible.

I will agree that 14 years of extremely stupid decisions makes one gun shy.

I think the organization is little more sound fundamentally now, then before. I know, some will disagree.

While we dont always agree with their decisions, this isn't the Syd thrift and Flanny era of running the team.

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But what's the difference here?  Let's say semi-best case he gets back to the two years before the surgery.  He's at 170 innings of a 2.80, good for around four wins.  Don't want to be too negative, but doesn't this make the likely case 79 wins instead of 75?

With all due respect, I think this is pretty flawed.  And I have waited a couple of hours to try and refute it.  Because first of all, I think you have a much better understanding of metrics than I.  But this is wrong in my opinion because you are valuing Cobb at about 4 wins which as you say is likely the semi-best case.  I'm not disputing Cobb's value for sake of this but conceding it.  However, his actual value tp Baltimore is +4 PLUS whatever negative number he is replacing.  To be a 75 win team lets assume that the Orioles #4 and #5 SP are a combined -4WAR.  Last year to win only 75 games, the Orioles #4 and #5 pitched to a 6.81 (Ubaldo) and 7.84 (Tillman) ERA.  I think if you add semi-best assumption for Cobb at +4 you have to also compare the difference to what he is replacing which is historically bad.  

To paraphrase your intent I believe...I don't want to be too positive but doesn't this make the likely case the Orioles are at least a 82 win team and need much less to go right than yesterday to be a playoff contending team?

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27 minutes ago, atomic said:

Yeah but some people don't offer real suggestions on how to operate the team. They would be negative no matter what the team did.  I highly doubt some of them are fans of the team.  And if the team did listen to what they said the team would win 45 games a year. 

 

27 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

True, critical for discussion sake, and I can respect the difference of opinion and agree to disagree.

But there are a couple that are clearly so negative on every single move, that its trollish.

Those are the types you simply ignore, not worth the time, and there are some that advocate signing every free agent under the moon under a "MASN Money" theory; I ignore those as well. Signing Cobb is a good move for the franchise, it's the type of move that a well-managed franchise makes. This move doesn't change my opinion that the O's have been poorly managed under Angelos, nor does it change my opinion that DD is capable of better if he was free of the restrains imposed by the Angelos family. Now I see we have a new thread calling for the worship at the Angelos shrine simply because they make a move that most franchises make every offseason. 

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1 minute ago, mcgraw238 said:

 

Those are the types you simply ignore, not worth the time, and there are some that advocate signing every free agent under the moon under a "MASN Money" theory; I ignore those as well. Signing Cobb is a good move for the franchise, it's the type of move that a well-managed franchise makes. This move doesn't change my opinion that the O's have been poorly managed under Angelos, nor does it change my opinion that DD is capable of better if he was free of the restrains imposed by the Angelos family. Now I see we have a new thread calling for the worship at the Angelos shrine simply because they make a move that most franchises make every offseason. 

The Orioles have been poorly managed, but I for one, believe its a different organization than the dark era.

I dont think any of us, know how much influence the sons have currently, and how they will do after daddy leaves this world.

I am going to give the team credit for a good off-season, and yet, at the same time, acknowledge they still have work to do.

 

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29 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

The Orioles have been poorly managed, but I for one, believe its a different organization than the dark era.

I dont think any of us, know how much influence the sons have currently, and how they will do after daddy leaves this world.

I am going to give the team credit for a good off-season, and yet, at the same time, acknowledge they still have work to do.

 

That's a reasonable analysis for me

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