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Paging Manny Machado: Corey Seager out for the year with TJ surgery

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1 hour ago, MikeAD said:

No Chance.  Ouch.  

Not sure the No Chance intended as the highlight there, but if it was Jaffe's suggestion the Dodgers would need to part with Verdugo *and* Buehler for a Manny rental, I wholeheartedly agree.  I think one of them is an okay $35-$40M asset long term to offset Manny's surplus this season and postseason.

Stitching Seager with Machado today perhaps adds something like 30% back to NL West divisional chances, which is the main carrot.  I think the Dodgers are still a playoff berth favorite even if they do nothing, except maybe make Kershaw break a sweat this year and not have a 6-month extended spring training.  

What's going to give this story more or less legs in the next few days are the Dodgers-D'Backs games tonight, tomorrow, Thursday, and then two more next Tuesday and Wednesday.  If the Dodgers go 5-0, they can chill, 0-5 and 13 games back may be too much to overcome.  Probably the sweet spot for our leverage is Arizona getting 3 or 4 of them.

More May pressure than Kershaw has felt in awhile coming tonight, but I think I feel a 90 Game Score coming as he starts exerting himself more fully by necessity.  The Arizona crowd should be at Delmon Young double blood smelling levels, as much as you can be on May 1st, tonight.

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I don't see the Dodgers trading for Machado.  It's not their style with that GM.  They like to hang on to prospects.  Also, they're off to a bad start, mostly due to a weak bullpen.  The O's will be lucky to get their best deal with the Dodgers on a mere rental in a year where it looks like the Dodgers are better off working to improve their bullpen, hope for the best, and then gear up more for next year.

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18 hours ago, connja said:

How about Manny for Seager?!

I was thinking the same thing though obviously for Seager and some other players since Seager is out for the season.  But I think there is a rule against trading players on the DL.

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The Orioles aren't interested in trading Machado yet, according to Duquette.

Quote

Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette said Tuesday that the team isn’t ready to move parts when asked about the club’s willingness to engage in trade talks regarding Machado.

“We’re still evaluating our club for 2018,” Duquette said by phone. “Basically, we still need to figure out where we’re going to be, so I think we need a little bit more time to do that.”

Duquette said that, in his eyes, he’d like to wait until Memorial Day before considering selling off pieces.

“I think it’s important to find out where our ballclub is going this year,” Duquette said. “I think the benchmark is Memorial Day. I think that’s the first benchmark, about 60 days [into the season], to see how your ballclub is doing and see where you might want to go.”

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-main-20180502-story.html

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3 hours ago, nadecir said:

No worries, the Orioles already screwed this up by not trading Machado earlier. 

The Orioles should have taken the best offer this offseason.  Machado's value was higher then.   An acquiring team would have received a compensatory pick when Machado goes free agent.  People here underestimate how much that pick added to Machado's trade value.   For people here thinking to just wait for a better deal, I seriously doubt we can get 8-10 teams competing for Machado's rights once again.  And there is always the risk of a season-ending injury to Machado that would end any chance of trading him

MLB teams are valuing their cost-controlled prospects higher than ever.  Teams are not going to give up a top 50 prospect valued at more than $40 million for a short-term rental.  Even for a player of Machado's caliber.  A couple of lower rated prospects maybe, but an MLB executive would be nuts to give up a top 50 prospect for adding Machado that might give their team a shot at the baseball playoff crapshoot.  

Here is a Fangraphs chart that values the top 100 MLB prospects in 2017.  This gives you an idea of how much prospects are valued at the current time.  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

Bill Bavasi is on the golf course somewhere; emotions in the front office get executives a ticket out of baseball.    Expensive veteran players just don't return as much in trade value as they used to.  Analytics rule MLB front office now, and analytics value those cost-controlled highly rated prospects as pure gold.

 Machado's trade value was higher this offseason than it will be at any time during this season.

I disagree because Manny is off to an MVP type season this year, which is somewhat surprising.

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As much as we are all clamoring because it is a win-win way out of the Seager misfortune, I do think in real life here, it is the Dodgers who have to make the first move, and they will spend some time reviewing their options.

Duquette texting Friedman today would be pretty gauche.

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4 minutes ago, nadecir said:

The Orioles aren't interested in trading Machado yet, according to Duquette.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-main-20180502-story.html

Kind of what you expect him to say.  He's not going to tip his hand.  And it may be that even if the Orioles are ready to trade today other teams might want to move more slowly.

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12 minutes ago, CheeryO said:

Kind of what you expect him to say.  He's not going to tip his hand.  And it may be that even if the Orioles are ready to trade today other teams might want to move more slowly.

Other teams move more slowly than the O's?  Unpossible!!

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38 minutes ago, CheeryO said:

I was thinking the same thing though obviously for Seager and some other players since Seager is out for the season.  But I think there is a rule against trading players on the DL.

There is also the fact Seager is  worth at least 80M more in surplus value than Manny.

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Just now, Luke-OH said:

There is also the fact Seager is  worth at least 80M more in surplus value than Manny.

Eh.

Honestly sometimes I think TJ surgery hurts position players long term value more than pitchers. 

I don't think you just assume he's back like nothing happened next spring.

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4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

There is also the fact Seager is  worth at least 80M more in surplus value than Manny.

A healthy Seager, yes.  But he's going to have TJ surgery, which could take some time to recover from.  There's also the risk he'll never be the same player when he does come back.  Either way before you know it Seager will be quite a bit more expensive.

Edited by CheeryO

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Can’t see how a matchup for a Manny trade tops this situation. All the ingredients needed, team trying to win while they have an elite starter under contract, same team has bad  debt & good prospects, and most importantly a need for a SS. If Brady & Pete can’t grasp the concept of maximizing Manny’s value & buying prospects, just give me the extra draft pool money and pray we can get from under the Angelos family before we all lose interest and adopt new teams and/or hobby. 

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6 minutes ago, MMussina35 said:

Can’t see how a matchup for a Manny trade tops this situation. All the ingredients needed, team trying to win while they have an elite starter under contract, same team has bad  debt & good prospects, and most importantly a need for a SS. If Brady & Pete can’t grasp the concept of maximizing Manny’s value & buying prospects, just give me the extra draft pool money and pray we can get from under the Angelos family before we all lose interest and adopt new teams and/or hobby. 

Dodgers are in win now mode.  I think they will make an offer for Manny after evaluating their options.  Will the Orioles consider a fair offer for Manny is the question.  

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13 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Since division play began in 1969, the Dodgers are in their worst position in terms of games behind the division leader upon the completion of the month of April ........ that covers 50 seasons.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

 

The boys from southern California are 8 full games behind the DiamondBacks ........ their previous worsts were in 1979 and 1993, when they were 6.5 games behind the Astros (1979) and the Astros and the Giants (1993.)

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/1979-schedule-scores.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/1993-schedule-scores.shtml

 

https://twitter.com/truebluela/status/990803614565203973

 

o

o

 

Roch Kubatko discusses other possible reasons as to why a Machado-to-the-Dodgers deal may or may not go through.

 

Does the Seager Injury Really Push Machado Closer to the Exit?

(By Roch Kubatko)

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/05/does-the-seager-injury-really-push-machado-closer-to-the-exit.html

 

o

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